Isaac to Rock Margaritaville

It looks fairly certain, that is in wx certainties, that developing and quickly strengthening hurricane Isaac will rock Key West, FL with a direct hit of a Category 1 storm some later Sunday!  Hurricane warnings are now posted for the the Florida Keys as seen in the map below...

Here is what the storm currently looks like from above...

And here are 3 models' predictions as to where it will end up once it passes through the eastern part of the Gulf of Mexico...1st the Euro for Tuesday evening:

And the America's GFS depiction:

Finally, the regional higher resolution grid of the North American Model or NAM for the same time:

As you can see, there is good agreement, dare I say, excellent agreement amongst the various models!  So Pensacola, FL...beware!  The storm will continue to gather momentum and its atmospheric dynamics will continue to improve as it moves over the favorable heat laden waters of the Gulf!  The graphic below simply equates the tropical cyclone heat potential per the waters it traverses.  These Gulf waters at this time of year are ripe full of potential...needless to say!

So if you've ever visited the southern most point in the USA in Key West, imagine how it would be weather-wise Sunday evening if you were 90 miles north of Cuba!  Meanwhile, Isaac will be wasting away in Margaritaville, Key West, FL!

Enjoy your weekend...and to my colleagues...our last weekend of summer vacation!  It's a real shame that the ensembles are printing out about 0.25" of rain for late Saturday into Sunday afternoon as a pesky low will slowly grind north across the Mid-Atlantic...oh well!

Happy week's end!

Smitty

AA:  Isaac to hit Key West, FL then move up west of Florida and make a 2nd landfall somewhere near Pensacola, Florida.  Look to get a little rain here this weekend, too.