Christmas Light Takedown Warning

Hey, the NWS has a wx watch and warning for just about every type of wx event...so I thought I'd join the fun and games and issue an "Outside Christmas Decoration Removal Warning" for today, Saturday, as the high temps will once again try to achieve 20ºF above normal!  Below is the actual output from the NAM for the grid of max temps across PA for this afternoon.  Mid 50s are a sure bet...my take is the model is still just a bit underdone; not to the extent of yesterday where the modeling was busting by 10ºF (48ºF forecast vs 58ºF actual!). So get out and enjoy today's mild wx under mostly sunny skies, but with an increasing SW wind.

And from what I can ascertain from the modeling, we will be experiencing a roller coaster ride of temps over the next 2 weeks.  Yes, we will see bouts of cold, but they will be interrupted with anomalous warmth.  What I will do is show you the GFS' take on strictly the temps over the next 2 weeks in terms of deviations from normal or anomalies.  First, the initialization where we saw very real warmth Friday afternoon...much unlike the CD Rams field goal shooting Friday evening.  Just a few things to note...the complete lack of cold over the US and most of North America for that matter with the exception of AK.  The raw anomalies are +12ºC or ~+24ºF for most of PA!

Now for this Tuesday pm...again a ridge pops in the east!

This is ahead of a storm that will move right up the Ohio River on Wednesday bring RAIN for midweek Farm Show attendees.  Once that storm passes, a strong cold front will briefly send PA back to reality as the temps are now shown for NEXT FRIDAY...or ~1 week from today...that is some serious chill for PA for Farm Show Friday!  Temps will remain in the 20s all day!  Note the persistent chill over AK!

That cold will all be a distant memory once MLK Day rolls around...note the cold now being displaced from AK!

And by 2 Fridays from now, that cold will have unleashed its fury across the lower 48...but then the cold builds back over AK and warmth returns to our heartland.

Finally, in 15 days, here is what the GFS believes to be happening with the North American temps...look at the expanse of warmth over the northeast US!  Even New England skiing will be experiencing a pathetic mid season ski season...icy conditions without the glorious powder "normal" temps usually allow for the part of the east to enjoy.

A roller coaster of  temps...when it gets cold, it will be cold as the air flow is cross-polar; note the flow from the Euro (left) for next Friday-Sat period.  That is a deep trough with its air originating in the Arctic...the GFS has more of a coast to coast cold pattern.  Regardless, it will not hold as I showed above as per the operational run of the GFS

I show here the AO and the NAO of the GFS and its ensembles members.  The bold blue line is the primary run of the modeling...it seems to be in a fair bit of disagreement with its ensemble members as seen here...the operational is clearly the outlier whereas the ensembles keep the AO negative!

The same is true for the NAO...the operational is heading waaay up in comparison to its ensembles...

So will the cold hold once it hits?  The ensembles say there is a better chance than the operational runs from the GFS; the operational is a roller coaster ride for temps over the next 2 weeks.  By the way, here is the amount of RAIN for the midweek period...looks like a solid 1-2" band of liquid sunshine from Dallas to Dubois.  Some of that precip may fall as sleet and frz rain at the onset in the mountains to our west, but at this point, I believe that nearly ALL of the precip at KMDT will be in the form of rain.

My advice...get a tall tropical drink and sit outside this afternoon (after removing your outside Christmas decorations) in a southern exposed area around your place and enjoy this classic.  Because, if you can't get to the tropics, surely the tropics have been trying to get to you!

Enjoy the week's end!

Smitty

AA:  Another mild day followed by a couple of weeks of roller coaster temps.  Wrestling tonight?