Post Christmas Wx Uncertainty

With the threat of a major nor'easter 3-4 days away, there remains a tremendous amount of uncertainty within this time frame.  Quickly here before I receive some divine intervention with my addiction with the wx, I will show you the Euro Model for the path of this storm...unfortunately, the "free" Euro model output is for only 24 hour increments and cannot really depict where the exact path of the LOWS will track.  With that said, there will be 2 lows...the primary traveling up towards KPIT with a secondary low forming as energy is transferred towards the natural baroclinic zone of the coast/ocean interface.  Here are the 3 Euro positions...

Christmas Night

Wednesday night

 Thursday Night

Note in the Wed. night graphic, you can see centers of low pressure; one in WV and one forming over in the coastal plain of VA/NC.  The sooner the secondary forms, the more likely for a major snowfall.  IT IS WAAAAAAY TOOOOO EARLY to determine an exact path or precip type for KMDT with this storm.  I do feel that in excess of 1" will fall from the skies...the million dollar question WHITE OR WET???  Not sure...I do like the high pressure to the north on all of the modeling.  I will not bore you with the 500 mb map now, but there is adequate (not very strong what I like to see) confluence over the province of Quebec.  This supports cold air funneling southwestward towards PA and helping hold the cold in place.  The synoptics of this pattern are very complicated with the extreme cold just to the NW of the CONUS and the anomalously warm oceans to our east.  Many of you will see forecasts for rain...that is because the GFS is the furthest west of all of the global modeling and as of this writing...AN OUTLIER!  It does develop a secondary storm, but too far north and east to make it snow much in these parts.  Here it is...

GFS Model

As for Christmas Eve snow, we are still looking at a skiff of ~1-2" before changing to very light freezing drizzle by early Christmas morning.  A white frosting SHOULD greet anxious youngsters and adult winter wx lovers alike!  But the big ticket item is most certainly Wed-Thurs...and I'll try to keep y'all updated as best as I can.  

Follow me on Twitter...if you so desire!  It is very quick and easy for me to quickly post a graphic or quick statement concerning the wx.  Heck, I can even post while pumping out some cardio on the arc trainer.  In fact, it makes the workout go a bit quicker!  If you have a smart phone, Twitter is extremely easy to utilize.  No...you do not need to tweet!  Just get a screen name and a valid email address...and you can access Twitter!  Do it...it's perfectly legal to be a Twit!  And I think most of you will be pleasantly surprised as to what you QUICKLY find out!

OK...off to receive divine intervention.  Let me leave y'all with this wonderful ditty...

Merry Christmas!

Smitty

AA:  Nice Sunday, increasing clouds and cold Christmas Eve with light snow arriving late in the day.  Cold and mostly cloudy Christmas Day awaiting the bigger storm for Wed-Thurs.  By the way, another for the weekend...different story for a different day!  Merry Christmas my friend!