Tuesday's Winter Wx Event

On this frosty morning, it is not too difficult to imagine that snow is in the forecast.  It is especially understandable if you spent any appreciable amount of time outside over the weekend...it was raw!  And it is now increasingly evident that a minor winter wx event is on the way for Tuesday, commencing in the pre-dawn hours.  The majority of the precip that does fall will do so in the form of snow as the upper air supports snow growth at the proper levels.  However, the question begs as to how much water will fall from the sky?!?  With the lowest levels being so dry and the dynamics not very strong, I'm of the belief that although we will certainly see snow on Tuesday, this will be a nuisance event at best.  It will get the populous into the Christmas spirit via the white, winter wx, but as i will show, it will all be but a not-so-distant memory once the weekend arrives.  Here is the NAM hi-resolution solution for snow fall...

This is suggesting that KMDT is actually the "sweet spot" for snowfall accumulations, especially in the higher elevations in our vicinity.  I also like to look at the subsequent morning lows from the models that follow a snowfall event to help pinpoint the area of snowfall accumulation...here is that map as well....lows in the teens suggests snow on the ground Wed. am...

And the cold air is being seen by the larger grid global modeling as well...-10°F for morning lows in our region...

But the cold will moderate and by the middle of next week, we are looking at temps well above normal!  The map below shows temps ~20°F above normal for the 1st part of 1st week of December.  But the longer term does spell a cold and ultimately stormy December once past the 2nd weekend of December...

...but that is a different story for a different day!

I'll leave y'all with a song whose lyrics in the middle of the song are very reminiscent of how the wx was this past weekend...

Don't your feet get cold in the winter time? 
The sky won't snow and the sun won't shine 
It's hard to tell the night time from the day 
You're losin' all your highs and lows 
Ain't it funny how the feeling goes away? 

Have a good first day of rifle deer season...

Smitty

AA:  Looking for a skiff of snow Tuesday...cold remainder of the week then becoming milder over the weekend into next week.  Looks like the 2nd part of December could be quite cold and stormy...?