Miscounted Isaac

My title of this brief posting is simply to let y'all know that Isaac was underestimated by many of what this tropical cyclone was/is capable of doing!  For most of Monday, the National Hurricane Center continued to call this beast a "tropical storm" in spite of pressures worthy of it becoming a Cat 1 storm.  Just prior to landfall, Isaac's central pressures dropped to 965 mb!  He produced a maximum wind gust of 113 mph at Belle Chasse Ferry Dock in Plaquemines Parish just prior to landfall.  The gauge at Shell Beach, LA recorded a storm surge of nearly 11 feet!  By using the above bold faced criteria, it appears to me that Isaac should have been classified as a strong Cat 2 or a weak Cat 3!  Here is a graphic of the storm surge observation at Shell Beach...

And not as strong as the 113 mph wind gust, look at the winds at this same sensor.  24+ hours of winds in excess of 50 mph!  Wow!

Here is the pic and locator of this sensor...the large yellow diamond locates this tower.  Picture extremely turbulent water 10+feet higher than in the below pic...unreal!

Now, here is a chart of the various categorization of storms based on various oceanic and atmospheric parameters to arrive at a storm strength.  Remember from above...113 mph gust, 965 mb, ~11' surge...you tell me what Cat storm Isaac was just prior to landfall.  Maybe they will revise this upon perusing the data more closely like the infamous downward revision in the political unemployment rates we see here in the US!  Oh well...

So where will Isaac decide to venture once he's done his welcome is worn in LA?  The precip modeling suggests a northward, then an ENE turn across the upper Ohio Valley and ultimately into the northern Mid-Atlantic and finally off into New England.  Take a look at the latest modeling for precip amounts...

Here is the modeling for late Saturday evening into early Sunday morning as the first few drops from Isaac arrive in central PA...

...and it continues through early Tuesday!

Now its waaaaay too early to determine the quantity of liquid sunshine, but it is now becoming a bit clearer, at least to me, that we will receive a generous amount of rainfall from this newsworthy tropical cyclone.  Here are the latest model runs through the next 5 days as to where this atmospheric menace will travel...

And, just in case you forgot what he looked like...first an IR view...

...and now how we would see it with our eyes if we were in a geosynchronous orbit of ~23,000 miles above this big blue marble...

My heart truly goes out to those suffering in the path of Isaac and many of those hearty folks simply say "that's part of livin' here".  If I were better with my French, it would probably be spoken in some Frenchy type lingo...but that is a different discipline for me and one in which I greatly struggled!  But knowing some folks around here that dealt with the disaster of Lee's remnants in Sept 2011 and kept a great attitude about where they lived...I think of this song from Jackson Browne...and I'll leave you with this...

Enjoy your end of the week! It will be getting hot (90+ for Friday) in these parts before Isaac pays a visit.

Smitty

AA:  Isaac is a force to be reckoned with!  Like me in fantasy football!  His moisture likely to affect PA Sunday-Tuesday time frame.