El Nino & Eclipse

Since the weather this Saturday will be one of the top 10 weather days of all year (Sunny and ~80ºF), I felt compelled to share just a bit about the annular eclipse that will be occurring over the Pacific rim this weekend.  I will also expound in just a very brief manner what the oscillating Pacific Ocean might imply for our weather this upcoming winter season...but before I go there, look at the 500 mb pattern for late Saturday...controlled by high pressure!  That trough (or weakness in the upper air pattern) to our south does spell trouble however for early to middle of next week. 

Here is the total rainfall forecasted by the GFS for the period Monday through Wednesday...I believe that the "blue" area over VA will be a bit further north and over us here in southern PA.  But we will see what we will see....

But there is no denying the wx for this Saturday and Sunday as high pressure rules the roost!  That low off the Carolina must be watched for early next week as the high pressure will fade off to the ENE...

But as for this upcoming solar extravaganza, our fellow citizenry of the western part of the US will be treated to an annular eclipse as the sun sets this Sunday.  An annular eclipse is one where the moon is unable to total cover the sun as its distance is just too far from earth and thus appears too small in terms of its angular size in the sky.  Kinda ironic since 2 weeks ago a "Super Moon" was being hyped as it was closest to the earth in conjunction with full moon phase!

Earthlings, as a result, will see something that looks like this if they are in the path of "annularity"...

And here is that path where prime-time viewing can occur in our country just prior to sunset...Winslow, AZ might be a nice place to catch this celestial event...at least that's what Jackson Browne alluded to in his 1972 song here authored and sung most famously by Glenn Frey and The Eagles!

Follow spaceweather.com for excellent updates or any other link from there to view this eclipse via the world wide web, and what observers in the path are willing to share!

As for our upcoming El Nino, here is a forecast of the Sea Surface Temps (SST) and the on coming El Nino, albeit a weak signal, for the next several months. 

Based on the Climate Forecast System, here is what the upcoming summer might hold based primarily on the these oscillations in the Pacific ocean, THE PRIME DRIVER OF THE EARTH'S WEATHER PATTERNS AND NOT MAN!  Basically a weak signal for warm in the western US and no real clear signal in the east...

And here is precip...a weak wet signal over PA with slightly stronger signal over the upper Mississippi Valley and dry in the lower Mississippi Valley and south FL....

This is all interesting to me...maybe not so much to y'all, but I find it fascinating that these climate models are actually on the improve as more input from the Pacific Oscillations (El Nino/La Nina) are being introduced!

Enough for now...listen to the Eagles' "Take It Easy" thinking you are in Winslow, AZ watching an annular eclipse this Sunday evening!

Enjoy this gorgeous weekend!

Smitty

AA:  Nice weather this weekend!  Solar eclipse out west.  Summer looks "normal", maybe slightly wet here in PA based strictly off the latest climate modeling.