Springing Forward Into Springtime Warmth

Today we spring forward, not just to Daylight Savings Time, but into a stretch of weather that will be more reminiscent of May as opposed to March!  Saturday we only reached a high temp of 43ºF (-5ºF from normal for march 10!) in spite of bright sunshine.  The air mass that invaded PA over the last 2 days was most certainly of an Arctic origin as dew points were in the single digits for most of yesterday.  The pristine air mass made for excellent viewing last evening of the celestial pairing of Venus and Jupiter, the fiery orangish Mars, the Winter Triangle along with the constellations of the the Winter Hexagon.  It was quite the sky watchers evening!  Here was a snapshot of the clear skies as seen from a high res visible satellite as of late afternoon Saturday.  Note the instability clouds that form out over the ocean as the cold continental air pours out over the much warmer and more humid air from the Gulf Stream warmed ocean at our latitude and off the Delmarva.

However, once we widen our view from topside, we see our next wx maker for Monday into Tuesday.  This is a vast area of disturbed wx down in TX.  The much welcomed rains in the Arklotex region will be moving towards us Monday afternoon and rain will be falling here sometime around nightfall....which is now around 8 pm EDT or so!

Not too much rain will be falling here in the east as the moisture will have a tough time making inroads to the dry air that is in place from the weekend.  I believe less than 0.25" will be in rain gauges by Tuesday when the skies begin to clear out on a westerly flow over PA. Here is a snapshot of the NAM's depiction as to the heaviest rain in a 3 hour period ending around 11 pm Monday night.

 This is a far cry from the rainfall totals the deep south will be receiving this week along with the west coast.  Here is a map showing the total precip that is expected to fall across the entire US by next weekend.  Look at those places in particular!  I circled the areas in white.  The Mississippi and Ohio Valleys clearly show the path of the moisture moving out of TX this week whereas the Pacific NW gets inundated by the trough that is setting up off the west coast this week.  Trough in the west; ridge will develop here in the east!

Take a look at the 500 mb pattern for later this week...a large area of high pressure at all levels will become established here over the eastern half of the country.  If this were summer, we'd be looking at a bona fide heat wave without the risk of any rainfall.  This is a classic heat signature atmospherically.  A synoptic pattern with heights near 580 mb over PA is relatively rare for this time of year!  But that is one deep and vigorous trough off of CA!

This pattern will lead to max temperatures approaching 80ºF for much of the Mid-Atlantic, including PA, by late this week and into the weekend.  The map that is shown below would make people celebrating Memorial Day weekend quite happy let alone St. Patty's Day!  There's not too much green on there; lots of red like some people's skin will be after this week!  The sun angle is approaching 50º in the midday period, plenty high to affect exposed skin that has been hidden all winter!  The melanin will be mobilized as the sun's UV-B starts to make some serious inroads with the ever increasing sun angle! 

And it appears that the week after will continue to be much above normal as both the GFS and the Euro suggest the pattern to feature more ridging in the east!  Both models have the 576 mb heights to the north of PA 10 days from now!  Unreal!

In fact, when we go out to 384 hours (taking us to the last week of March), the GFS still has some semblance of high heights not only here in the east but over most of the continental US!  March looks like it could average closer to early May means as opposed to its "normal" 30 year climatological temperature of March means!  And a zonal flow as shown below is not a severe weather signature by any stretch of the imagination...and that is a good thing!  Meteo's version of March Madness!

Speaking of the severe wx, take a look at the GOES imagery of the severe wx that so very adversely affected the Ohio Valley the 1st couple of day of March.  From the Goddard Space Multimedia site, this is a quick 1.5 minute video and a 30 second video that clearly shows the incredible storms as they marched across the region.  Click on the links below to view this impressive footage!

GOES Sees Tornadoes

Severe Weather Outbreak Satellite Imagery

Enjoy your Sunday...where max temps will begin their climb to above normal and stay there for the remainder of the month!?!  Spring Fever abounds!  Fantasy baseball drafts, MLB preseason games, before you know it, it will be truly spring!  And remember to get out and view the evening skies this week and note the planetary pairing in the western evening sky.  Although it will be overcast for the diagram seen below for us in Harrisburg...the planets will be close all week!

Smitty

AA:  Temps to go above normal for the foreseeable future!  A skiff of rain for Monday night into Tuesday morning.  Prepping to have the best auction draft for fantasy baseball!