See-Saw Temperatures Favoring Warmth

Just a very quick post to let y'all know that the modeling continues to paint a rather warm ending to the month of November after another quick shot of cold air coming this Thursday and Friday.  Here is the 500 mb anomaly for this Thursday evening.  As we get closer to the end of the week, the modeling is not digging the trough as much as it was earlier in the week, so this should just be a glancing shot of cold, but after the recent warmth a shot of cold to be sure!

But by Sunday, the temps will rebound nicely and another warm November day will be on tap.  Take a look.....

What will be ushering in that warmth is a storm system that will be passing well to our north and west, but it will begin to expand the snow cover into the northern US.  Take a look at the before and after for snowfall focusing on Minnesota!  First, the current snow depth...

And after the storm deposits its white carpet to the north country.  I do believe this storm will make the national headlines as it should be a large gale center over the western lakes and create havoc for a day or two...

As for later towards Thanksgiving, it is now appearing that what I originally thought would be the immense cold building in AK would be allowed to displace south and east now looks to be placed on hold for a few more days.  Both the Euro and GFS show agreement in their 500 mb anomalies over the 8-10 day period.  The Euro is on the left; GFS on the right.

For those wanting some early winter, the NAO is forecasted to go negative by December.  Take a look at the ensembles of the -NAO forecasted for the end of November.  The operational run goes strongly negative, but several of the members are positive with their blocking, so no real clear signal is truly being offered at this time.

That is all....now I'm off to watch my hero...Bill O'Reilly.  By the way, and those of you who know me know that it must be a very good read for me opine on a book, but "Killing Lincoln" is an outstanding read and one I would certainly recommend!

Have a good mid-week.

Smitty

AA:  A quick shot of cold Thursday-Friday, then warm conditions return for the foreseeable future.