Welcome to Winter?

Wow!  Look at these temps as of 7am this winter solstice morning!  For those of you who abhor winter, rest assured that ol' Sol is heading back northward as of 12:30 am earlier this morning.  But with these sub-tropical temps, who needs the sun angle any higher?

Thursday looks to bring yet another wave of low pressure in what would be a normally sweet track for those wanting snow.  However, as this low tracks to the south of PA this evening and into early Friday morning, we will see rain as there is NO COLD AIR in place to create snow flake construction in the upper levels!  A bit disheartening for those of us hoping for a White Christmas.  Here is the rain-snow line running over the northern part of Dauphin County.  Oh sure, we may see a few flakes mixed in overnight if you're awake; however, this is a rain event for our sub-tropical locale.  Snow will accumulate over northern PA to the tune of ~4" when all is said and done.  We are looking at ~0.75" of rain by Friday morning.  Take a look at the modeled totals of precip by Friday morning...

The heaviest of the rain will be falling around midnight as shown below.  A slight shift NW of the storm's track, and we are looking at a heavy rainfall for ~3-6 hours overnight.  As of now, it looks to be a moderate event delivering under an inch of rain.

Once this storm passes, colder air will try to invade us for the weekend; but cold is a stretch as temps will be near normal through Christmas Day.  Here are the temps for when you are walking into Midnight Mass or putting toys together or having a bowl of gruel or cracking a Guinness Stout or whatever your fancy on Christmas Eve...

There will be a slight southerly flow that is the return of warmer air for the beginning of next week.  The Arctic door is closed and into the foreseeable future, cold air is nowhere to be found in these parts.  I sure would hate to have a vested interest in Mid-Atlantic Ski Resorts this early winter.  Note the weak bubble of high pressure just off the east coast with its clockwise flow of air.

So allow me to end with this to all of you....

Enjoy your Christmas celebration!

Smitty

AA:  Rainy Thursday night into early Friday, then clearing and seasonably cold for Christmas celebrations.  Typical "normal" winter wx for the holiday weekend.