Exhilarating Euro

Just a very brief post to keep everyone in the loop concerning the deepening trough for next week by a severely buckling jet stream into the eastern US.  I will use all ECMWF maps as they tend to do best at this time range; although sometimes just a bit overdone.  I'll cut right to the chase with the first map, why leave anyone hanging right?  This simply put is a crippling nor'easter!  It would be our storm of the year if this model and everything leading up to this would actually verify!

The map above would drive sub-freezing air all the way to the Gulf Coast and into northern FL on the backside of a powerful sub 990 mb bomb just east of ACY and deepening!  The 500 mb anomalies are quite extreme as shown below.  The 500 mb heights are actually "off the charts"!

As I showed yesterday, the GFS reforecast hinted at this.  Here is the latest from that rather successful endeavor by the Earth Science Research Lab (ESRL), the Physical Sciences Division.

Here is the American GFS for the surface for the same time period next week.  Until both models tend to merge into more reasonable agreement, its quite uncertain that a major storm will disrupt the eastern half of the US.  As you can plainly see...nada.  Quiet and gentle NW flow of relatively mild temps.  But a few days later, a storm not quite of the Euro's immensity affects us here in the east.

But the GFS ensembles do show quite an anomalous trough over the east for the same time period.  So something is up.  Where's there smoke; there's fire!

So the jury is still out...time will tell...and all that jazz.  But it is the first time this winter where I feel that there is a real possibility of getting some appreciable snowfall here in the sub-tropics we call southern PA.  Unlike today, where there is a real likelihood of us achieving ~1 inch of rainfall by midnight.  Here is the latest NAM depicting SE PA as the "hot-spot" so to say in terms of rainfall amounts.

As the storm passes just to our NW over Lake Erie by midnight or so tonight.  Note the winds in their cyclonic movement just to the NW of PA.

Approaching another New Years Eve celebration in our lives and some things just never change.  So kick back and enjoy the piano version of "Old Long Ago" that is traditionally heard on numerous occasions at this time of year.  The lyrics, as simple as they may be, are provided as well.  Enjoy!

 

Should auld acquaintance be forgot,
And never brought to mind?
Should auld acquaintance be forgot,
And auld lang syne!

Chorus.-For auld lang syne, my dear,
For auld lang syne.
We'll take a cup o' kindness yet,
For auld lang syne.

Enjoy your mid-holiday-week!

Smitty

AA:  Watching a major storm possibility for next week.  Rainy today; breezy and much cooler tomorrow once storm pulls northeast of PA.