Spell of Nice Wx

I hope everyone is now enjoying this spell of outstanding fall weather with clear, crisp mornings moderating to beautiful afternoons.  Many do not realize that our morning lows the last few days have been within only a few degrees of KMDT's record minimums.  But, true to form with dry air, a large diurnal temperature range has been the play with temps moderating to above normal the last 2 days.  Now Friday Night Lights is upon us and the wx will cooperate once again in our area.  However, temps will be noticeably colder Friday when compared to the last couple of afternoons.  The storm system to our west will be suppressed with a dome of cool high pressure moving SE towards New England.  The blue arrow shows the advection SE of the Canadian High Pressure whereas the red arrow shows the progged movement of the vorticity clearly seen as a comma shaped storm over the mid-section of the US. 

Friday will dawn cloudy, but by kickoff, skies should clear and once the sun sets, radiational cooling will quickly take center stage.  Temps will drop into the low 40s by kickoff and into the upper 30s by games' ends.  Here are the forecasted temps for 8 pm Friday night.  CD should have comfortable lead over Chambersburg by that point....and working their way to the potential of having the #1 seed in District 3!

The colder temps will be ushered in by winds ejecting straight from the north as seen below.

I believe Saturday will be a colder day than being presently forecasted by the TV mets.  With cold air at all levels and the ground still quite wet, the bright sun will have a difficult time warming the lower layers as efficiently as the rip and readers are buying.  Personally, if we hit 50F Saturday, that will be a bonus!  Here are the 850 mb temps for Saturday.  Admittedly, the cold air aloft is vacating PA, but it will be difficult to erode due to the lowering sun angle at this time of year.

However, by Tuesday, temps will moderate and actually feel quite balmy as opposed to what we've recently been experiencing.  It's not out of the question that we could tickle 70F come Tuesday afternoon!

The GFS ensembles are bullish for the warm-up as well as shown by the 500 mb anomaly below.  The warm bulls-eye is sitting right over us!

Now, by later in the period, say next Sunday, the flow according to the GFS is still southwesterly.  The deep trough is still focused into the western US.  This should provide "mild" temps for all of next week.  Take a look....

However, the Euro doesn't buy that solution.  And let's remember what the Euro did for us last weekend.  So once we get out to 10 days, the modeling begins to diverge.  Thus, tread softly when listening to prognostications beyond the middle of next week.  As most of you know, I tend to side with the Euro in the medium range.  That weak trough spells some potential trouble for a nice weekend for next weekend.

But this weekend will be spectacular, albeit a bit chilly Saturday for our immediate area.  Sunday looks to be awesome.  So when our Lady Ram Field Hockey team is competing for a state tourney bid Saturday morning at 9:30 am at Hershey High School, the bright sunshine will help take the sting out of the morning chill.  But if you fancy college football and your focus is the 'Bama-LSU tilt, the wx for the kickoff set for 7 p.m. at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa should be wonderful; calm winds under clear skies and temps right around 60F!  The game will be televised nationally on CBS with a the potential of being one of the most watched college football games ever!  Go 'Bama!

But prior to that matchup, maybe you can catch a race or two from Churchill Downs for Saturday's Breeders Cup Classic event.  High pressure promoting sunny skies and temps in the mid 60s will rule the roost in Louisville this Saturday.  So for your 6:15 pm post time appetizer for the NCAA clash, it might be as easy as ONE-TWO-THREE in your exactas and triples.  Although Harve de Grace is a she, this filly should hold he own and be there near the wire with both Flat Out and Uncle Mo!  Personally, I believe that Flat Out coming out of the 2nd Post Position has an advantage over the other two as they are coming out of the 10 and 12 holes.  Thus, put Flat Out on top of Uncle Mo and Harve de Grace and you'll be able to parlay those winnings into 'Bama laying the points and soundly defeating the Tigers by at least a TD!  I know.....I know.....stick to the wx!

Have a great week's end!

By the way, I believe PSU will cover the "Bye" this weekend!

Smitty

AA:  Nice wx, but a bit chilly Saturday.  Getting warmer through mid-week, could even touch 70 Tuesday!  Then it becomes a bit murky as the modeling is inconsistent for next weekend.  Looking forward to some good NCAA football Saturday evening after the ponies run Saturday afternoon!