Once upon a mid-May dreary, while I pondered, weak and weary,
Over many a quaint and curious volume of 700 mb charts,
While I nodded, nearly napping, suddenly there came a tapping,
As of some one gently rapping, rapping about a blocking -NAO.....yo!
"'Tis some upper air unwanted visitor," I muttered, "tapping at my central PA-door
Only this, and nothing more."
With great regards to EA Poe, and sincere apologies for butchering his prose, I can't think of a better opener to use to describe how dreary this upcoming week may become. Once the higher dewpoint air invades by Saturday, the sun will be but a distant memory of this glorious past week. As I show below using the 700 mb forecasts from the GFS, there will be an abundance of moisture at the 2 mile point in the atmosphere. This is a very important level in which to analyze for cloud formation and precipitation as once air saturates at this level, especially in the warmer season, precip tends to make it to the earth in the saturated column. Although we may not be looking at a copious amount of precip, we could end up with nearly 2+inches by next Thursday evening. Some places will get hit hard with showers while others will dodge the heaviest of the rains. The rainiest periods look to be Sat evening-Monday morning and then again Wed morning through Thursday afternoon. The maps below show the forcasted 700 mb level for the upcoming week; dark green would support rain while light green would support thick overcast.
Over many a quaint and curious volume of 700 mb charts,
While I nodded, nearly napping, suddenly there came a tapping,
As of some one gently rapping, rapping about a blocking -NAO.....yo!
"'Tis some upper air unwanted visitor," I muttered, "tapping at my central PA-door
Only this, and nothing more."
With great regards to EA Poe, and sincere apologies for butchering his prose, I can't think of a better opener to use to describe how dreary this upcoming week may become. Once the higher dewpoint air invades by Saturday, the sun will be but a distant memory of this glorious past week. As I show below using the 700 mb forecasts from the GFS, there will be an abundance of moisture at the 2 mile point in the atmosphere. This is a very important level in which to analyze for cloud formation and precipitation as once air saturates at this level, especially in the warmer season, precip tends to make it to the earth in the saturated column. Although we may not be looking at a copious amount of precip, we could end up with nearly 2+inches by next Thursday evening. Some places will get hit hard with showers while others will dodge the heaviest of the rains. The rainiest periods look to be Sat evening-Monday morning and then again Wed morning through Thursday afternoon. The maps below show the forcasted 700 mb level for the upcoming week; dark green would support rain while light green would support thick overcast.
Friday:
Saturday:
Sunday:
Looking even farther into the merry month of May, the GFS actually develops a tropical depression/storm in the Gulf of Mexico around the 22nd of the month and its remnant energy moves across northern Florida and up along the east coast of the US; a pretty wild solution but certainly not out of the question......stay tuned!
I do hope that you enjoyed this nice string of dry days in our region (it hasn't rained in earnest since last Wednesday although it rained in Etters last Saturday with a gusty shower!). Now we pay the piper...a string of mostly cloudy days with rain a possibility at almost anytime through the upcoming week!
Enjoy your Friday!
Smitty
AA: Dry for Friday's Mid-Penns and City Island district baseball match-up but potentially wet for Saturday's events. Then rain could occur basically anytime right through next Thursday.
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