Taking Advice from Alison

June...

July...

August...

Like I said...listening to Alison....I hope you do too...

Cool through Memorial Day...had to get that in...a least!

Smitty

AA:  Watch AK Video...

Cool to Rule

After what has been a hearty and healthy preview to the upcoming summer, the weather will again revert back to the norms and below some for the upcoming weeks.  First, let's look back at the past 5 days in terms of temperatures...

It was most decidedly cold in the west where feets of snow fell in the inter-mountains of WY and CO, but here in the east it was quite toasty!  The warmest temperature I could find was a 96°F reading in Hartford, CT both Wednesday and Thursday while here in Harrisburg we just missed a heat wave by ONE measly degree on Friday as we tied a record on Wednesday (91°F), reached the same on Thursday without cracking the record books, but only hit 89°F yesterday!  Heat wave denied!  Try telling that to my wife!  And as most of you are aware, no AC here either.  It's gotta get very warm and humid for Smitty to contribute to the coffers of the utilities!  Kay calls this the "Scrooge Report"!

But what prompted me to blog this gloriously cooler and drier morning is the fact that I believe the next few weeks will be much cooler as to what we just experienced.  Take a look...

The next 10 days...

The next 15 days...

 

And for basically the next month...

The Euro is in agreement as well for the next month with its center of cool positioned a tad further west.  The signal from the models though is essentially..."cool to rule"...

OK...gotta get moving this am.  It's amazing to watch nature awake from its slumber of overnight.  And the change of air mass was incredible whilst I myself slumbered during the night.  So I'll leave y'all with this 1986 Fogerty ditty.  I really liked this tune as a younger guy; but then again, I like the Fogerty sound!  Enjoy!

And enjoy your week's end!

Smitty

AA:  Much cooler for the next few weeks; many more below normal days than above norms.  Also with some precip to make those green blades grow:  you know..."Job Security"!  Below map is total precip through the rest of May...

Also...I've been trying my hand on Facebook, too.  For timely map postings and very brief analysis, if you do Facebook, "Like" SmittysSynopsis page on Facebook.

https://www.facebook.com/smittyssynopsis/

Not a Weather Blog

Today was a very special day.  Maundy Thursday to be sure!  Possibly the most "Holy" of the days of Holy Week.  But for me today, it was much more than that.  Today was about how we adults can help influence and properly guide our youths to create an even better future for those who follow.  As most of you know, I teach...science.  And that is my primary goal; to help have the populous a little bit be more informed about how the world of "science" views this world.  But I also am a human being...and with that said, I try to help people to treat others like...well...people!

April 10, 2013 was an impactful day for me and my family.  Merely 4 years ago, we lost our "Patriarch" and with that it changed my thoughts/actions.  I truly began to prioritize; which I am still doing to this day.  But today also reminded me very much why I enjoy working with adolescents and young adults...even though there are times it can be very challenging.  For some, the 2 hour baseball game may have been lengthy; to me, a blink of an eye!  When Robbie Ram came up to bat, I had so many thoughts going through my head...where will this young man be next year?  How about 10 years hence?  Will he be "fighting the good fight?"?  Will he have a family, living the dream as we all say?

But the ONE thing I reflect upon is the fact that there are still many teachers/coaches that help influence these young and impressionable kids to make good decisions not only about the day to day issues of the sport/event in which they are involved, but the end goal of post high school.  And for that, I am very thankful.  These young men/women who work with these kids long past the hours that I have in me furthermore...so if you are are one of those workers....THANK YOU!  I truly appreciate your efforts....not only to get that "W", but more importantly to get those kids to work for a goal.

And whether that goal is academic or athletic; it is a goal!  And goal setting might be the best actionable event that occurs not only in adolescents, but also adults!

OK...enough...and there will be no weather!  I just wanted to reflect on positivity of our Central Dauphin Community!  Because, I saw it today at Barton Field at CDHS!

Happy Easter to all who read this far!

Smitty

Looking Towards Summer

This evening whilst viewing my favorite TV show (Weather World-PCN), Dr Jon Nese was reviewing the February-March temps at 3 locations in PA; one in the NW part of the state, State College, and one in the SE part of the state.  In all 3 of these locations, it appears that March will average cooler for the entire month than February.  As is often the case, the climatologist that lies within Dr Nese went through the data banks and found only THREE common years where March was cooler than February at all 3 locations.  Dr Nese went on to say that there was no real signal as to what to expect for the upcoming summer months in terms of the weather.  Well, I had to check for myself since he did all of the truly heavy lifting by analyzing the March cooler than February months at the 3 locations in PA.  So here is what I found out...

First the temperature anomaly...not much of a signal as Dr Nese stated.  Slightly cooler than normal here...but slightly warmer across the mid-section of the country.  Also, possibly an active hurricane/tropical storm season affecting Florida and a strong on-shore flow across the PAC NW.

As for precip...well...what a mess that is!  Looks like a Christmas Tree!  A total piecemeal of wet/dry areas, some directly juxtaposed with each other.  Florida is wet but the PAC NW surprisingly dry. Looks like a slightly stronger than normal western USA "monsoon", but that is really grasping at straws!  Again, no real strong signal...

As for drought, it looks a tad dry across the northern plains and the Ohio Valley and some signal into the Arklotex region, but adequate moisture for most of the remainder of the country with the lone but typical exception of far western coastal CA.  The Yellowstone River looks like it would be quite low during these years...

So what's up for June-August 2017?  Not really too sure yet...just so most of the country is under clear skies for August 21!  The Great American Eclipse will traverse this great country.  May high pressure grace our continent and inhibit convection this day!

With all of that said, I will continue to try to look for signals as to what this summer might bring.  But it will certainly bring an astronomical phenomenon of one's lifetime!  So get out and enjoy it...and enjoy this...

Only a few days until MLB opening day...summer has to be just around the corner!

Smitty

AA:  Summer, using only one set of data, looks to be reasonably normal in these parts with the exception of a 75-80% eclipse of the sun here in our region...gotta go just a tad south and/or west to be in the path of totality!

Weather and Politics

The 2 shall never meet...Wx and politics.  Nor should they aside from in this brief post.  Many times, political agendas want climate study and politics to meet; and often they need to in order for funding of said research to be continued.  But none of that here.  I fund my own research by analyzing openly both sides of the debate.  But that is not today's political discussion.  Today's political posit is of a far more local flavor; more on the scale of say...microclimatology!  How about the size of a school district or even more specifically a region within a school district.  And even more specifically, electoral Region 2 of the Central Dauphin School District.  My political post here is for support of my former colleague, building level administrator, and good friend Mr. Richard Mazzatesta.

I've known "Mazz" for my entire professional career.  One of the reasons Mazz was such a strong leader as a building level administrator is due to the fact that he taught in a secondary classroom for 19 years!  Once he "paid his dues" mixing it up with the students and staff on a daily basis in the classroom setting, he moved on to various levels of administration in a diverse setting of buildings and districts.  Experience has no equal; it's concise to state, Mazz has a boatload of experience both in the classroom and in the hinterlands of various administrative positions in public education.  It is my belief that Mazz would be an excellent addition to the CDSD school board of directors and a strong voice for the advocacy of education for both the students and staff working in the district within the constraints of fiscal and societal realities.  Simply put, Mazz finds ways to "get things done".

So Smitty, what can I do to show support for Mazz?  Please understand, I'm not a big FACEBOOK guy, but Mazz now has a Facebook page where people can keep up to date with his ideals, posts, etc...  Just simply "Friend" him and he will reciprocate in kind.  He is slowly learning Facebook to help get the word out for his interest in the Region 2 CDSD seat.  He states that Facebook is new to him, but the PA Public School code is NOT!   His Facebook link is...

https://www.facebook.com/richard.mazzatesta.7

Many of you reading this were also colleagues of Mazz'.  So go ahead, "friend" him on Facebook and support his bid to venture into local politics and make a difference where his experience is second to none in the public schools.  Let's spread the word for Mazz both verbally and electronically!

As for the weather, we all know February was quite warm when compared to normals; in fact, it was warm not even comparing it to anything but the absolute temps!  Take a look...

But March showed a late winter reversal both in terms of temps...

...and nearfall backpoints with that one nice late winter snowfall...

and a satellite view of above storm...

It looks as if April might return to above normal temps as the CFSv2 indicates on its recent runs...

But an astute observer might notice a coolish signal from the Mid-Atlantic and lower Lakes up through New England.  The dirty work of wet ground and melting snows will tend to keep temps "squashed" to some extent, especially the 2-3 weeks prior to Easter Sunday.  Here is the Euro's take on precip for the next 10 days; regular and repeated bouts of precip in these parts to be sure...the GFS is very much the same, albeit a tad wetter...

OK...enough.  Time to stretch my aching back and perform more of my recently learned ELDOA exercises.  These are to help elongate the disk space within the vertebrae and alleviate compressional pain.  Sometimes, I think I'm just getting old!  But I'm really trying not to do so...

I'll leave y'all with this favorite of mine...in keeping with the politics...or trying to avoid political affiliation and simply working for sensible solutions as Jackson Browne is advocating...

Enjoy the remainder of your week!

Smitty

AA:  In support of Mazz for CDSD school board and it looks as if a wet 2-3 weeks is on tap.  The next rain will come Friday; +/- 1.25" by Saturday I believe in these parts.  Then about every 3 days, another soaker here in our region...

Definitive Dennis

Well, today is my twin brothers' birthday.  OK Smitty, what does that have to do with the price of coffee in Columbia?  I'm glad you asked!  When conversing with my one brother today, he reminded me of the stories our father told of toting home his March 12 newborns from the hospital in very deep snow.  That was 1956; and here are the snow totals from that notable storm.

Now that 1956 storm was simply an Alberta Clipper on steroids.  It did not have the same upper air support as what we are seeing for the impending system to affect the upper mid-west, mid-Atlantic and New England.  Nor did it have a low pressure system that emanated from the Gulf of Mexico that this synoptic set-up will have.  When a 500 mb closed low strolls through northern VA as shown below, that is often a south central PA special!  Those screaming winds at 18,000 ft will spin up quite a nor'easter.  Take a look...

And here is another look at the height anomaly for this 500 mb pressure field.  If you are a snow lover, that graphic is a thing of beauty coupled with the surface features!  Also, a ridge over Yellowstone often delivers the goods here as well...It seems to me the stars have aligned for a south central PA special!

I will display just one snowfall model map; the Euro dynamic ratio map.  This takes into account many variables that contribute to dendrite growth; upward motion, upper air temps, and deep atmospheric moisture.  It is essentially a weighted average of all of the atmospheric variables that supply the snowflakes their necessary ingredients to develop.  Check it out...

That heavy band from LANCO to Albany, NY is a combo of a front-end heavy snowfall and the backlash of the deformation of high ratio snows.  Where that backlash band sets up could add an additional 6"+ on the earth below...those are ALWAYS tricky to forecast.  

I also like to look at analogs too.  Here is the top analog based on the GFS...Since this is a February storm below, all of the snow accums are a bit further south; shift this a hundred miles north and east and this looks very close to the Euro output.  Time will tell...

What I do know is that it is quite cold!  Take a look at what should be our max temps for the day!  Temps will not be an issue here at the surface; however, if the storm deepens rapidly and pulls in milder ocean air in the upper levels, a period of sleet could materialize leading to some concrete type accumulations under the fluffy backlash that will blow and drift to some extent!  Warnings might even elevate to blizzard conditions if the wind can become an issue.  I don't believe that will happen here in the KMDT area, but we may see Blizzard conditions and warnings hoisted in the Lehigh Valley of PA.  Brrrrr...

Below is the wind map for Wednesday; a large pressure gradient is setting up across PA for later Tuesday night into Wednesday as high pressure builds in from the NW.  Tuesday's winds will be manageable...

Ok...I think you get the picture; a classic March winter storm is on the horizon.  I guess you could accurately call it Meteorological March Madness!  So my final definitive call; +/- 2" either side of 14; in other words, let's go 12-16".  I'm concerned that I might be a tad conservative, but I am often called "Chicken Little" amongst my friends.  So being the conservative that I am,  I will go conservative with my definitive totals.  After all, the Indigo Girls seem to agree; "...The Less I seek my source for some definitive, the closer I am to fine". Enjoy their take...

And enjoy your Meteorological March Madness!

Smitty

AA:  Looking at a major snowstorm in these parts Monday night into Wednesday.  My final call; 12-16" with cold to follow.  Snow will be around for awhile, too!  Also, keeping an eye wide open for this weekend.  Another clipper to invade with yet another likely accumulating snowfall.  The winter that never was now doesn't want to leave!  

Likely Louie

Over the past week, I have evolved quickly from "Doubting Dennis" through my ambivalent stage of "Nervous Nellie" to a now just less than certain "Likely Louie".  As most of y'all know, this is my hobby; to peruse the weather systems not just around our region, but across the CONUS and for that part, anomalous weather across the globe.  I was seeing the teleconnections from the Pacific Ocean hinting at a return to winter for a period here in March (MJO, EPO)..."O" in those previous abbv. represent oscillation where there are well known swings of a back-forth nature in the oceans and subsequently in the atmosphere as well.  For our sensible weather in these parts, simply think of it as warm-cold-warm-cold for the winter months.  But when these swings occur at the end of winter, major storm systems can fire.  I believe we have one waiting to spin up early next week...Here we go...I'll start y'all with what you want; accumulations from the models.  I'll show just the GFS this time as it has been rock solid for the last several runs; not that the Euro hasn't been, but the GFS a tiny bit more consistent...

If you look very closely, that 2' spot in York County is close to where our humble abode sits!  Anyway, analog weather forecasting is one of many tools to help predict future weather systems; take a snap shot of the atmospheric conditions from surface to stratosphere and compare the physical conditions to those of the past and let the computers sort through the myriad of data to determine the outcome of those initial conditions "x" number of days later.  Well, I will share with you the top 3 analogs from late this afternoon for early next week...Drumroll...First...#1; March 18, 2007...

Looks reasonable with the exception that coastal ME had a changeover which limited snow accumulations.  Also, the overall amount of precipitable water looks to be less than what I believe will be made available early next week.  Number 2...February 15, 2014...

This also is quite believable; however, just a tad too much snowfall down into the Smokies, but keep in mind, we are 1 month later than this analog.  A solid 1-2' through our immediate region...now #3...this anaolg just keeps showing up through all of the different time frames as well; never a top dog, but always within the top 5 analogs...the infamous March 1993!  A fully phased longitudinal planetary wave...I just get the heebie-jeebies typing that!  Essentially the arctic branch, the polar branch, and the sub-tropical branch of the jet stream all come together and play nicely together.  Clearly a difficult task; but not impossible.  (In fact, THREE branches of the jet stream are far more likely to work together than TWO PARTIES in our government.)  Sorry...just needed to be said.  That solution is certainly on the table, but I personally believe that happens about 3-4 times a century climatologically.  But come to think about it, 1993 was nearly a quarter century ago...?  Just sayin'...

The March 1993 nor'easter is the Number 1 NESIS (Northeast Snowfall  Impact Scale) system of all time.  Take a look...I remember that weekend like it was yesterday complete with sleet, thundersnow, and an entire week to get things back to normalcy due to the brutal cold that followed!  Again, I'm not saying that is this sytem next week, but it is certainly a possibility...

OK...I've hyped this enough for this evening.  Stay tuned.  Thanks for reading...And I'll leave y'all with a different story for a different type of snow...most are familiar with Clapton's take so I'll share Jackson Browne's lyric...enjoy at least the tune...

Smitty

AA:  Watching and waiting on our biggest snowfall for the 2016-17 cold season.  COULD be a doozy.  Double digits for many in/around our area.