Smitty's attempt to educate and to a much lesser extent, entertain, about all facets of life; but primarily the meteorological and the climatological aspects of the earth sciences.
As I contemplated the meaning of this day, July 4, my thoughts run the gamut about America, freedom, and independence. Essentially, just how blessed I am to live in this beautiful country! But as many of you are aware, ultimately my thoughts turn to the weather. July 4 can often be...(and is more often than not according to my lovely bride)...quite warm/hot and humid in these parts. So that is why we keep records...to simply verify what the past has been. Below is a table of the high & low temps along with the precip data for the last July 4ths back to 1990. A quick perusal of the data indicates that when temps remain cooler than normal, precip is most likely involved. By the way, mathematically, the mean max for the data shown is 86.5.
Today's holiday will be below normal in terms of temps. Currently as I sit here and type this out, temps are typical for early am in these parts for this time of year. Maybe even slightly warmer due to the clouds and light rain falling at present...
And the 2 weak areas of low pressure and their associated frontal boundaries to the south and west of PA at this time will translate north and east as we celebrate America this weekend. Here is the current surface map...
And today's official forecast for KMDT has a high temp of 70ºF with a few showers about. In fact, from all of the ensemble members of the GFS, the highest temp I can find is 75ºF for today. So it appears that the 2015 version of July 4 will be much below normal in terms of temperature.
And this area of rain will need to progress to the north and east before Sunday's much more summer-like weather will dawn.
Looking a bit further out in time, the cooler than normal scenario looks as if it just might play out more often than not in this upcoming month of July. Next Monday's lows according to the GFS will be quite cool in these parts...
In fact, looking at the upper air prog, it could get quite cool and unsettled if there is more of a "phasing" or deepening of the trough which I believe is likely to occur. The area of cool to the north looks to be too far east. So if it is slowed, the equatorward dip in the isobars will be much more pronounced here in the eastern CONUS.
The Euro is in agreement to some extent...but it keeps the cool pool aloft back maybe too far west. Time will tell!
Interestingly, the meteogram for KCXY does not show a 90ºF for the next 10 days...low to mid 80s are not too hard to take IMO...I do believe there will be a bit more rainfall than the GFS kicks out however.
Here is a graphic of the 5 day means centered on next weekend...cooler than normal is clearly the signal.
And how about the climate model for the month of July...same signal...
So there you have it. On this July 4, 2015 a quick discussion of the near term, medium range, and monthly ideas for temp and too some extent precip. And since this is America thanks to the patriots who lived (and died) their dream of freedom and independence, I have the ability to spew this propaganda out for anyone to read if they choose to do so. (And I appreciate those of you who do!) So I will leave you with one of my favorite patriotic tunes...and I hope you enjoy it as much as I.
Happy 4th y'all...
Smitty
AA: A damp and cool 4th of July. Plenty of mowing will continue as there is ample soil moisture and temps will be conducive to grass growing! Os need to snap out of their funk. Glad to see the Sox helped this past week!
As I was awoken just a bit ago due to yet another band of heavy rainfall moving through our area, my mind was inspired by the thoughts of "it's been quite a storm for the summertime...and quite a month of June in terms of rainfall". So I thought I'd share with y'all just how wet its been and how this storm has evolved over the last couple of days. Frankly, we still have the upper level part to contend with today; however, most of the rainfall associated with that should remain well to our north and west. Let's take a look...
First the surface map for the present...
This is a classic Miller-B type system which shows the main storm moving off to our NW with a secondary storm forming somewhere in the mid-Atlantic and the entire system pulls off towards the retreating higher pressures ridging back into New England. In the winter, these storms tend to be rather tricky in determining snow amounts as the transfer of energy often skews the precip. Yesterday, I had just over an inch during the day while places off to our south and east had 2-3 times that! In the winter, a difference between a plowable and a crippling snowfall...
Here is how the storm appeared just 12 hours earlier with the moderate to at times heavy rains coming down...Why the Philles organization decided to start yesterday's game is a complete enigma to me? Just another boneheaded decision made by that "Major" league organization over the last few years!
Now let's look at the 500 mb upper level support for this system. As I mentioned, the upper low will affect our sensible wx today as it moves over the northeast...below is a 500 mb anomaly map; very low pressure for this time of the year moving over PA later this morning...
But by Monday morning, one of the upper lows pulls off towards the NE while a 2nd upper low is getting to affect us for later Tuesday...in the map below, it is located over the IL-IN border...
So by Monday morning, we should be greeted by mainly sunny & dry wx awaiting yet another frontal passage for later Tuesday...here is the Euro's take on the frontal system traversing PA on Tuesday afternoon. I suspect we could have a few boomers with the front as it moves across our region during the max heating of the day on Tuesday afternoon...by the way, the system below you can see in the first (top) map located over Minnehaha and the Dakotas this morning. A progressive wx pattern...
But just how wet has it been Smitty? QUITE! In my reports to COCORAHS, I've had only FIVE (5) days in June without any recorded precip! FIVE! After yesterday and overnight, I will be well over 10" of rain for the month. Those of you who remember June 1972...the month of Agnes for these parts, this month was wet, but nothing compared to the same time period in 1972! 18.55" of rain fell in June 1972...This month follows a month that was opposite. While in May KMDT received over 3.5" of rain, a bit more than 1/3 of it fell on the last day of the month! So basically June0th...ha!
Here is May's dry month over PA...many dry colors with the lone thunderstorm over Lebanon County...eh? The NW part of the state was slightly above normal...
Compare that with June to date. By the way, the map below does not include Saturday's deluge! DOES NOT INCLUDE!
So...there are my random weather thoughts this early Sunday morning. I do know that the July 4 week is upcoming and many want to know what might be on tap...well, here is the GFS' take on temps in the upcoming 5 day period ending next weekend...temps slightly below norms for us here in PA but warming for the July 4 weekend. The pool of cool over the corn belt and the Grateful Dead shows in Chicago!
Here is the Euro's total precip from this morning until the end of next weekend...note how hot and dry it is (and has been) over the Pacific NW!
OK...I'm gonna leave you with a Grateful Dead song...honoring their reunion tour less a few souls...You know, I always like to tell this quick story.. back in 1995, I was actually staying in Chicago overnight awaiting a flight back to KMDT the night after being blessed with a visit to my buddy's cabin in the north country of Wisconsin and subsequent travels to Minnesota! Myers, my north country move-away friend, actually mentioned that we should venture out to Soldier Field for the Dead show...only about 20 miles from where we were at the time. Unfortunately, we were all beat from our escapades in the outdoors and simply wanted to rest, recover, and be ready for our 6 am flight in the am. So Myer's thoughts of ending our trip with a Dead show quickly were vanquished. If I knew then what I know now...? Wow. The lovely song below was done as an encore at their Soldier Field finale in July 1995...take time to listen to the lyrics and the music itself...an awesome tune!
OK...I'm out and off to do something I love to do in the summer around the solstice. Get a cup of coffee and watch the dawn awaken while sitting quietly on my front porch with my 2 mongrels traipsing around the property terrorizing any bold critter who ventures onto the mowed lawn region of our property...
Enjoy your Sunday and the week before we celebrate America's independence!
Smitty
AA: A stray shower yet this Sunday. Drying out Monday and early Tuesday before another few storms pass through Tuesday afternoon. Then a slow warming and drying trend into the July 4th weekend! Go Os, Go Sox, and keep your mower blades honed!
I just thought that I would create a little informational update about the weather and how it's been behaving over the last few days or so...
Some Wet: Here of course and as most are aware, in the southern plains. Take a look at this precip graphic. First off...PA for the last week...much needed rainfall.
And the southern plains were simply inundated with rainfall this past month! The Pacific NW did receive rainfall, but the graphic was simply missing some data.
OK...now onto Some Cool. Bostonians are quite familiar with cool summers. But something has happened TWICE this week in Boston that has not happened but one other time since records have been kept from 1872. On a June day, the temperature never reached 50ºF! This occurred both Monday and Tuesday when the max for both days was 49ºF! That is quite impressive! I remember being in Fenway Park on the Summer Solstice for a night game with my bride when the game time temperature was announced as 48ºF...and the crowd cheered wildly; crazy New Englanders! Here is a graphic of today's midday temps...
Now on to some stormy...this doesn't happen too often. A tropical system in the eastern Pacific will strengthen and make landfall into the southern Baja with its remnant moisture possibly giving beneficial rains to the deserts of the American west. At least this is what the models seem to be suggesting...and are in remarkably good agreement...take a look...first many of the tropical models and global models other than the GFS...
And the GFS ensembles...
Current topside view...
And finally our own upcoming weather...a large high pressure system looks to rule the roost this weekend until a front pushes through with a bit more cooler air from O Canada later Monday pm.
First high pressure over SE Canada to clear us out...valid Saturday am...
Front coming through later Monday...
OK, just wanted to inform y'all about the nature of the weather over this country and what appears to be a very pleasant weekend on tap. Speaking of this weekend, will we finally have a triple crown winner? Time will only tell?
Enjoy this 1st week of June...
Smitty
AA: Its been wet here in eastern PA, Boston set 2 records for min max temps, a hurricane will threaten Baja and carry its moisture north into our deserts, and we will have a nice weekend weatherwise...and hopefully otherwise as well! Enjoy!
Memorial Day means many things to many people; picnics, grilling, camping, beach, parades, veteran ceremonies (most important!), long weekend...but it also is viewed as the "unofficial start of summer weather". Memorial Day 2015 will not disappoint! Let me explain...
As I sit here and gather my thoughts and maps, the current air mass in place is quite cool and dry for this time of year. Here is a snapshot of the current warnings and advisories over the CONUS. Note the heavy rains progged for the southern plains while here in the northeast, we are being invaded by frosty weather...the deep navy colors are freeze warnings while the brighter blues are frost advisories.
Here are the current 2 am temps...first of all centered on New England...
...and now centered on our immediate area...
With our days now lasting nearly 14.75 hours, it is quite difficult for temps to drop very low before 'ol sol makes his appearance and begins to warm the earth once again. So temps in the 30s are quite impressive in PA and a few spots dropping into the 20s by 5 am will be anomalous. My "old-timer" acquaintances who have lived in northern PA have always mentioned "ya can't grow a good tomato in northern PA"! With such a short growing season, no doubt...
Here is the reason for the rains in Texas and the chill here in the northeast...the 500 mb configuration. The current trough over the northeast and the vigorously digging trough into southern California and the deserts of the SW...By the way, yesterday afternoon during the max heating of the day, many locations set record min maxes for the day!
Record statement from San Diego wx office...chilly viewing of the heavens at Mt. Palomar!
But by Memorial Day, the 500 mb pattern will switch bathing the east in a "Bermuda High" type set-up...take a look...
This will allow temps to rather quickly warm so that we are looking at mid-upper 80s M-Th timeframe...I would not be surprised to see a 90ºF reading in these parts...the map below indicates the above normal temps here in the northeast while the wet ground in TX keeps temps below the seasonal norms there...
This is quite a turnaround from our current anomalies...15-25ºF below norms this early morning in PA and New York...
And once the turnaround occurs with these temps, the GFS ensembles suggest they will be here well into June! Take a look...
We are dry through Memorial Day...protected by the build ridge aloft...
But with weakening and dying fronts attacking the Bermuda High from the north and west, we will see some showers and thunderstorms later next next and the "weakness" in the atmosphere will likely allow for numerous threats of summer-like convection through the next weekend and beyond...total precip next 10 days...only the coastal plain will likely remain dry and frankly...hot!
So that is my synopsis and I'm sticking to it...I hope everyone has a safe and enjoyable Memorial Day weekend and gives at the very least some thought as to why we celebrate this last Monday in May.
And I'll leave you with this Jackson Browne political commentary...this is a great song, enjoy!
Here comes summer...
Smitty
AA: Cool start to the weekend; becoming quite summery by Memorial Day. Dry though next Tuesday or Wednesday, then showers are more and more likely. Enjoy the time with your growing family...new memories and traditions!
Hey...it's the FIRST SATURDAY IN MAY! That means none other than weddings and DERBY DAY! Carpe Diem (2) on top of Upstart (19) and Frosted (15)...go ahead, box 'em up and tell me Sunday morning how your ebet account has fared...ha! Just trying to get a heartbeat utilizing yet another tactic as opposed to the mundane workout routine of "long, slow cardio".
OK...onto the weather. As I mentioned last week, warm air is on the move. This upcoming week looks to be quite warm in these parts as shown by the GFS averaging the next 5 days.
For many, this will be welcomed as the last 10 days of April have been quite cool east of the Mississippi with the lone exception of Florida...
And with the warmth comes "summer-like" weather as eyes will be focused off the SE coast with the development of POSSIBLY our 1st named tropical system of the year. Not thinking this will earn a name or even should, but seeing that it is forming over abnormally warm waters off the FL-GA coast with a closed circulation cut from the jet, it just may earn at least a TD number. Time will tell. All of the global models are seeing it and have been for several days now. Let's take a look...these are all forecasts for the late Thursday into Friday time frame...
GFS
EURO
THE BRITS
and THE CANUCKS
It would be nice to get some of that moisture up into the Piedmont and into PA but I do not think that is very likely. We are certainly running a rainfall deficit of late and are sorely in need of rain to help things along during this critical time of the growing season. Here is a precip anomaly map for the last 6 months...most would not have thought that we were this dry in south-central PA...
May is KMDT's wettest month of the year historically and with frequent frontal passages at this time of year, low pressure often forms on the front and enhances the rainfall along the east coast. We will have 2 opportunities for this during the upcoming 7 days; on/about Tuesday and then again later next weekend. Mother's Day 2015 might be a soggy one?
As for the temps this upcoming summer, look for near normal temps with the warmest weather coming likely in August and September. I will quickly share June-July-August forecasts from the CFSv2 model that just ran yesterday...
JUNE
JULY
AUGUST
What I see in those previous 3 maps as I'm sure y'all do too is a wet southern plains. That's good news if this were to verify. Hook 'em horns with cool temps and frequent rains! OK, time to peruse other interests on the worldwide web at this early morning hour. Nothing like a freshly brewed cup of coffee (Caribou this am) doctored with some light cream while reading an opinionated but science based commentary on nutrition; primarily the effects of ketosis on the human body. I know...I know...Smitty must have insomnia...
I hope everyone enjoys their FIRST SATURDAY OF MAY whether it involves the Kentucky Derby in some fashion or not. And I'm sure most of you will most undoubtedly "Seize The Day"...subliminal implications intended! I will leave you with a favorite of mine where in the 2nd verse, Mick croons about this day...enjoy!
Smitty
AA: It's Derby Day! Carpe Diem to win? Warm week coming up. Need some rain to keep that grass growing for my favorite lawn maintenance man! How can you let A-Rod beat you...pinch hit HR in the 8th...c'mon man! And only getting to CC for 2 through 6? Ouch! Enjoy your weekend my friend.
