November-like Day In Store

Make no bones about it, today will be ugly weatherwise.  November will pay us a visit in the form of dark, cloudy, damp, & dreary weather as an upper level low once again influences our sensible weather through the weekend.  This upper low is about as "low of a height field" as you see here in the early fall!  540 Dm is roughly the rain snow line in the winter used to determine precip types in these parts.  Look at the upper low over the northeast this weekend!

Not only do we have that digging trough with which to contend, we also have a direct discharge over cold air directly from Hudson Bay aimed at western PA and WV.  The 850 mb temps are progged to be below freezing for much of this weekend.  This translates to surface temps easily being ~15º-20ºF below normal!  Snowflakes should be spotted in the higher elevations of  WV, VA, and NC this weekend.  I wouldn't be surprised to even see the highest mountains of the Laurel Highlands in Somerset County, PA and Garrett County, MD see brief bursts to make the ground white from time to time.  Wow!  That is one ugly 850 mb map for this time of year. 

Couple the cold air aloft with the vorticity from the 500 mb level, and we should see a rather ominous storm once again spin up, this time to our east.  As a result, some backside rainfall is likely as shown by the surface map of the NAM seen below for Sunday morning.  If that storm is a bit further east, the deformation precip will be directly over the Susq. Valley again allowing for yet another inch or so of rain to fall by Monday!  Unreal!

It will not be until Tuesday or Wednesday once again until this upper level feature pulls away allowing for moderating temps and drying.  I'm not too certain that an inch of rain will fall, but the potential is there.  Here is the GFS take on the precip through Monday.  As you can see, the "hot-spot" for precip is western PA.  If the surface low is just a bit further east, wet will rule with heavier rainfall through Monday here as well.

But mid-late week next week will feature finally some nice fall weather as a large 1036 mb high will crest over NY and take control of the eastern US as shown by the GFS below.  Also note the warming to our west at the 850 mb level meaning a moderating temperature will be in store for later in the week.  You can also see 2 tropical systems in the Atlantic; Ophelia's remnants in the maritimes and the new boy Phillipe approaching and swinging east of Bermuda.

In closing, I'm not sure where to start.  Remember, I love October sports and weather.  Well, I love weather all months.  Come to think of it, I like sports all months too.  Just some better than others!  I could address the 9-0 shellacking of Texas by Tampa Bay holding Texas to only 2 hits by pitchers I'm not even sure who they are!  Or how the rain has once again interrupted the MLB schedule by wasting 2 outstanding pitchers from game 1 in the NYY-DET series.  Also, I could espouse my hopes of Doc re-working some post season magic this afternoon.  But I must report on what was a complete and thorough woodshed whipping by the CD Rams football team over its sister school.  CD dominated all facets of the game; special teams, run defense, run offense, discipline of only 3 penalties I believe, turnovers...you get the picture.  I guess if I could find any fault with the Rams, it was with the defensive play at the conclusion of the 2nd quarter when once again, the blitzing aggressive defense morphed into a "prevent" drop into coverage defense and East scored rather easily on a 6 play drive in ~1:00 minute.  Other than that brief hope, the game was decided...arguably with 11:46 remaining in the 1st quarter!  With the opening kickoff, CD returned the rock 98 yards to pay dirt and ignited a solid team effort throughout the game.  East flashed some optimism throughout, but clearly...and I do mean clearly, CD was the far better team.  Some renown local media mentioned that CD and CV are most likely the top 2 teams in District 3.  Now I haven't see all of the teams play yet, but I can say that was a complete effort on the the part of the well coached Rams and next week's battle with CV should be a classic.  East must regroup, understand they lost to one of the best teams in the District 3, and move on with their quest for the playoffs.  There is an old adage in football:  "You're never as good as the score implies and you're never as bad as the score implies".  Well, CD looked impressive in the 49-7 win as witnessed by 7,000+ at Landis last evening.  But I do not think East is as bad as that score indicates either.  I believe there may be scheduling conflicts for Landis the 1st and possibly even the second round of playoffs as both CD and East will be extending their football seasons this year.

Have a great November-like weekend!

Smitty

AA:  Cold and damp through Monday with slow improvement.  Not great hunting weather due to winds.  By end of the upcoming week, should be enjoying some nice fall weather.  CD dominated East last evening...wasn't even close!



Friday Night Lights

A very quick post concerning the kickoff weather for our games this evening.  The first map below is the temperature map.  The temp should be near 60F at kickoff, but will fall quickly during the game and by the end, the temps should be closer to 50F. 

And the winds will be subsiding with the setting sun.  The atmosphere will not be completely calm, but after a rather breezy day, the winds will actually be light.  The wind direction will be from the west or blowing across the field towards the press box at Landis.  If wind speeds are at 10 mph, I would be surprised.  But again, at this time, I feel that the winds will not be too much of a factor.

As for the intra-district game, I call it a pick 'em.  I believe that Red Land is far improved from the summer and Cedar Cliff is much better than its thrashing last week from Hershey!  Now isn't that the politically correct call?!?

Have a great Friday....

Smitty

AA:  Good wx for football Friday.

Rain, Rain Go Away

And come back again in moderation in, say, a fortnight.  Just doesn't have that ring now does it?  But it is the feelings of many in our area after this soggy and saturated September.  KMDT recorded another 2/3 of an inch of liquid sunshine yesterday adding to both the monthly record total of 18.26" and the yearly record total of 61.65"!  Unreal!  The 14.97" previous September record was in 1975 and thanks to a similar pattern and Hurricane Eloise, flooding was prevalent then as well.  Below is the track of Eloise in 75.  She started as a classic African wave and tracked across the Atlantic until she unleashed her fury onto the the islands and then the US.

And here is the precip map as a result of Eloise and her remnants.  Massive flooding occurred through the Appalachians and was a half billion dollar storm.  Over 40 people lost their lives in the states due to her flash flooding, mostly in the Appalachians.

As for our present weather, let's start with the current water vapor image.  I've placed some movements on there and I'll try to describe the current movements of the air masses involved.

Ultimately, the dry air from O Canada will win out (blue) but not until this entire upper low finally gets absorbed by the strong westerlies that are displaced to our north.  The deepest moisture however has past (yellow) with yesterday's drenching thunderstorms.  We could still see a shower on Thursday as another spoke of moisture will pass through midday (seen over Pittsburgh to Cleveland in above pic).  But a stronger cold front will pass PA Friday as depicted by the official NWS map for Friday morning as seen below.

The large complex surface reflection of a low pressure over the Great Lakes and into Quebec will quickly accelerate NE as the jet pulls this complex finally away from our area!  Friday will feature instability clouds and even a few brief showers or spritzes as a bona fide cold air mass advects SE and generates "Lake Effect" rain showers in the lee of the warm lakes.  The temps a mile up will be below freezing on Saturday as shown in the map below.

Along with the much cooler temps, the dew points will be substantially lower as well.  Here are the progged dew points for Friday evening.  This clearly shows the surface air mass will have finally changed on brisk WNW winds!  All of the deep moisture will be pushed out to sea and down to the deep south for the weekend, and quite likely until next spring!

In closing, what an unbelievable evening in MLB!  The 2 greatest collapses in MLB in the final month of the season; the Red Sox blew a 9.0 game lead and the Braves blew an 8.5 game lead!  And last evening, the Orioles win in a walk-off in 9....yes I said that correctly, the Orioles win!  Then minutes later, Longoria from Tampa Bay strikes a low line (and I do mean low as it cleared that extremely low left field fence at the Trop) drive to culminate a 7-0 comeback to the the evil empire and walk-off into the playoffs 8-7!  TB scored 6 in the 8th and 1 in the 9th to send the game into extras!  Longoria capped the 8th with his 1st HR of the game, a 3 run shot to left center.  As for the NL, the Phillies won an exciting extra inning game (13) mostly by some solid defensive play, and eliminated the Braves from postseason play.  In doing so, the Phillies managed 102 wins this season, a team record and Charlie won his franchise record 645th win passing Gene Mauch!  So now, the Phils vs Cardinals, the DBacks vs Brew-Crew, Rays vs Rangers, and the Tigers vs Yanks.  Onto October, a glorious month in sports!

Enjoy your Thursday and Happy Rosh Hashanah for those who celebrate.

Smitty

AA:  Finally getting the rain and humidity outta here!  Friday will be a transition day to a much cooler and drier weekend.  Wednesday was a great night in MLB.  Red Sox prove that you cannot buy a World Series championship, let alone a spot in post season!

Summer's Last Stand

I do believe that Monday will be the last warm and humid day probably until next spring.  I think we can crack 80 with high dew points Monday....it will most assuredly feel summery.  The satellite below shows the streaming of moisture up into PA from the cut-off low over the Midwest and an old frontal boundary just off the east coast.  The red shows this moisture advection and the blue shows the old frontal boundary.  The black is what is waiting in the wings once this cut-off pulls away in the mid-week period.

The front will pass through on Tuesday giving us our last real threat of meaningful precip for awhile!  The upcoming period after Tuesday will be decidedly drier.  Oh, there will be some instability showers, but the pattern suggests a much drier time in the next 10 days!

This front will usher out the humid air that we will have in place now through Tuesday.  Below shows the near 70 dew points in SE PA.

It will be gradual, but the cooling will come in spades by Friday afternoon as a secondary shot of cold air from O Canada comes down and actually creates some lake effect rain showers due to the very cold air aloft at ~5000 feet!  Take a look at that diving trough!

The operational GFS is not as bullish as the Euro is as seen below.  The GFS is on the right.  The graphics below are for the upcoming weekend period.  Both show the dip in the jet stream, but the Euro is much more pronounced!

The ensembles of the GFS, however, do agree with the deep trough.  Remember, the ensembles are many models that are run at slightly different initialization.  The operational is only one of the the models in the battery.

So that is why I believe summer's last real stand is the next couple of days.  Thus the end of summer is now literally upon us as the autumnal equinox occurred last Friday.  And seeing that it is September 25, not only the end of summer but 31 years ago, it was the end of Led Zeppelin due to the death of John Bohnam.  It was a sad day in the world of Rock and Roll and for me as I had a ticket to go see Zep at the Pittsburgh Civic Arena in November.  So I'll leave y'all with this classic!

Have a good Monday!

Smitty

AA:  Summery the next couple of days then cooling down.  Looks to be pretty chilly for this upcoming weekend!

Record Breaking Rainfall

With yesterday's heavy showers passing through our area delivering a record 1.76" of rain to KMDT, our local climatological station, Harrisburg has now officially surpassed the previous wettest year of 1972 (59.27") by measuring a total of  59.90" of liquid sunshine to date for the year.  So, with literally the entire fall season yet ahead of us (autumnal equinox occurred Friday morning at 5:05 am EDT) in this calendar year of 2011, KMDT should establish an annual rainfall record that will most certainly be very difficult to match or exceed in any of our lifetimes!  Just look at the graphic below which is now updated for yesterday's rainfall!  The dark green indicates the extreme rains from this past summer!  The rainfall has been tropical in nature as you can see the last few days have in the above normal category temperature wise and when the flow comes off the SE Atlantic at this time of year, very heavy downpours can materialize.

This weekend looks to now almost certainly keep the heaviest rains off to our east as a rogue tropical system moves up along the east coast.  Here is a close-up of the Mid-Atlantic coast for Sunday afternoon.  Note the storm system moving along the NJ coast.  Once to our latitude, this should allow for any chance of the tropical rains associated with it to cease in our area.    In addition, most of the heavy rain is now progged to fall well to our east as seen in the 2nd graphic!

Rainfall through Sunday pm....that little white speck in Cumberland County isn't quite Mechanicsburg, but its close enough and the CD-Mechanicsburg football game now slated for 4 pm Sunday appears to be dry....for the time being!

As for later in this upcoming week, the first part of the week will be unsettled as we have a strong upper low stuck in the upper Midwest which will be affecting our sensible daily weather through Wednesday.  Look at the movement of this low from Sunday to Wednesday.  Painfully slow!
First Sunday's 500 mb chart:

Now Wednesday's 500 mb prog from the GFS:

And just as the upper low lifts and fills, some energy in what becomes some fast jet stream flow nearby has some embedded shortwaves, one predicted to come through next Friday night.  Now timing these things that far in advance is not very accurate, but the model is suggesting that as another trough established itself in the eastern US, a brief period of unsettled wx will accompany said trough.  Let's hope this doesn't happen in sync with what could be a classic CD v CDE match-up next Friday night at Landis!  Note the shortwave (X) is prime position (Ohio valley) to spin up some little weather spoiler!

Ahhhh yes, Friday night lights.  Last evening was interesting.  I learned several things as I always do with experiences over time.  How about this signal from the football white-hat indicating a penalty.....one open hand placed behind his head; elbow out to the side.  Anyone?  Anyone?  Answer:  Improperly equipped player.  How about this one?  The moving and crossing of hands (like incomplete pass) behind the lower back of the white-hat?  Anyone?  Anyone?  Answer:  Sideline warning.  Almost all other officials use the NCAA and NFL signal of arms out to side and down in a shoving back motion.  However, this is the proper National HS Federation signal that was used last evening. 

In closing, as I review my week of weather and all things, it is with great sadness, but also great joy that I remember one of CD's finest.  What makes most business and industries operate efficiently is seldom the "big-wigs", but the unheralded support staffs!  One such stalwart of our custodial staff passed from this world earlier this week.  As a young teacher at LJHS, Carol was one that came across as one of the most happy go-lucky people I ever met.  She came to work, did her job like the little spitfire she was, helped out any and all that needed it or not and did it all again the next day!  With a smile and a bubbly attitude even when she wasn't feeling well!  When walking into Landis, I could hear that gruff voice yell across the din..."Hey Dennis", and always had time to ask how I and my 2 little kids (not so little anymore!) were doing....always!  Carol was a pillar at Linglestown Junior/Middle as well as the district and she will be sorely missed.  Regardless of the situation, Carol took the bull by the horns, played the cards dealt to her, was a straight shooter, didn't beat around the bush (can I get anymore cliches in here?) and most importantly did her job.  Everyday!  RIP Carol.

Have a great week's end!

Smitty

AA:  Unsettled through mid-week, but not too much rain.  Most stays off to our south and east.  Then a front will pass through early Wednesday giving some drying to us.  Might have more wet wx for next weekend?  Cooler to be sure.

Friday Night Fog Lights

Just a very brief post on what will be closely watched this weekend as a tropical feed from the SE coast brings large amounts of rain JUST TO OUR SOUTH and EAST!  As for kickoff this evening, we are looking at showers, potentially heavy, at any time.  There is a very real chance that the games will be played in rain free conditions or during a brief torrential downpour!  One safe bet is that it will be wet as the WRF indicates a widespread area of drizzle as indicated by the purple color over central PA.  Note just to the south is the advancement of the real concern over the weekend.

Today's wet wx is compliments of a long fetch SE flow bringing the humidity from the tropical Atlantic as seen below.

Both the NAM and the global GFS see the heavy rain event just to our SE; the NAM a bit further west than the GFS.  Here, see for yourselves.....first the GFS (rainfall through Monday).

And now the NAM:

You can see the precip nudging just a tad westward with the more regional analysis....

Anyway, have a great weekend and be careful of any falling satellite debris and watch out for faster than light moving neutrinos!

Smitty

AA:  A wet weekend...but maybe just damp!  Keep your eyes to the skies for a falling satellite!  Try to catch a neutrino...almost as fun as snipe hunting!

Wetness Worries

Earlier in the week, I was not as bullish about the amount of rain that some of the modeling had for the eastern part of the US for later this week.  Now, I'm getting a bit concerned for another expansive rain shield along the eastern seaboard in points inland.  Below is the most recent visible satellite pic from Tuesday afternoon.  Clearly, you can note the cyclone in the northern plains.  That storm and its associated upper air support will slowly migrate SE into the Ohio valley and become cut-off from the main flow of the jet stream which will be well to the north through southern O Canada.  It is that circulation that will pump vast amounts of deep tropical air northward into our area not too dissimilar from what happened 2 weeks back!

Here is the 500 mb upper air prog for Friday evening.  I do believe Friday Night Lights will be a bit on the soggy side this week!  Note the jet stream (where the isobars are close together) is flowing well to the north of the upper low over the lower lakes.

And lastly, here is the GFS forecast for total precip for the next 8 days.  Most of this precip will fall by Sunday.  We are looking at a 2-4"/3-5" rain event for the eastern portion of PA.  That soggy ground will then set the stage for what might be a return to some active tropical weather for the end of September and the beginning of October.  But kids, that's a different story for a different day!

I just thought maybe you all could see graphically what many of us saw personally!  This is a satellite derived image of the rainfall from both Irene and the remnants of Lee!  Ouch!!

In closing, I think that it was awesome that Derek Jeter achieved entry into the 3,000 hit club the same year Mariano Rivera earned the all-time saves title by passing Trevor Hoffman with 602.  Hoffman, however, does have about 2 dozen more "perfect" saves for what that is worth. I'm not a big Yankees fan, but Jeter and Mo have been teammates for 15 years and were some of the best in their business for their respective positions.  But from a Philly standpoint, I think Michael Jack and Lefty might surpass Mo and Jeter as to the best 2 teammates in recent baseball memory.....just a thought.

Have a good mid-week period.

Smitty

AA:  More rain is on the way....unfortunately!  Jeter and Rivera or Carlton and Schmidt...what do you think?