Smitty's attempt to educate and to a much lesser extent, entertain, about all facets of life; but primarily the meteorological and the climatological aspects of the earth sciences.
After what was an extremely cold start to the true winter season, a nice respite has been experienced by many here in the east with the somewhat gentle thaw that allowed snowpack to melt and river ice to flow...within reason. But from what I'm seeing, genuine winter chill is poised to invade the east with another battleground setting up similar to what we experienced in early to mid January. Let me explain...
First, the extremely cold period to start 2018..."Barney cold"...
But recently, here is the 7 day anomaly in terms of surface temps...looks like they might be ice fishing on Lake Winnipeg in shorts and a T-shirt!
So enjoy the temps this weekend; especially Saturday...
Before the step-down begins into what is looking more and more like a problematic February in terms of winter-like weather...here is the proverbial "shot across the bow" coming in like gangbusters Tuesday...
A quick blast from the Arctic, but a sign of things to come as the coldest air in the northern hemisphere is progged to be close once again in about 10 days...that purple blob has its sights on the Mid-Atlantic sorry to say for those wishing for an early spring...
And the Euro is sensing that winter is not over yet...not even close...
So enjoy this mild week's end as what lies ahead is yet another bout of winter. As my one buddy so eloquently stated..."February always is a bitch" with winter weather...and it sure looks as if 2018 will hold true to his axiom! The step-down commences Tuesday...and I do believe the Groundhog will predict 6 more weeks of winter...an easy analysis at least from my seat!
So enjoy this toe-tapper and this mild weekend! Just not the same without the Gobbler's Knob background...eh?
I'm off to look for more weather worries...
Out...
Smitty
AA: Mild weekend followed by a colder pattern with the potential of true nastiness to invade once again, this time with more snowfall!
For those of you have followed along for the last several posts, I've tried to make it known that a genuine January thaw was on the way...and tonight as I type, it is on the proverbial doorstep. In fact, I believe that Harrisburg has seen its last flakes (of snow that is) for this month and likely into the first week of February. However, I do not believe that winter is over; not by a long-shot. Let's take a quick look at the modeling of the 5000' temps for the next several 5 day increments. We will use the Euro as our model and go forward out to February 3...
Saturday to next Thursday; keep in mind these anomalies are in Celsius, so basically multiply by 2 to get rough Fahrenheit temps. Also keep in mind that normals are in the upper 30s to near 40 for maxes at this stage of the game...
Now, Thursday through next weekend...
And lastly into the first week of February using the Euro ensembles...
So, from this seat, a slow to moderate thaw looks to be in store for these parts. But the overwhelming signal is no real snow storms on the foreseeable horizon. In fact, the weather looks to be rather "peaceful" for late January...enjoy it and this, too. Not bad for a tribute band...!
I'm out...
Smitty
AA: Peaceful, Easy Feelings about the weather rule the next 2-3 weeks...
After our very brief "Farm Show" thaw, the atmosphere quickly reminded us that we are in mid January; not mid-April with blustery NW winds ushering in arctic air and laying down the arctic carpet for many places just to our north and west. In fact, a " boots on the ground" report from a loyal reader observed in western PA stated that the wx went from drenching rains with temps in the 60s to wind blown snows with ~5" accumulation by morning along with a notable ~30ºF T drop IN ONE HOUR! Meanwhile, the brief thaw wiped out the "bomb-cyclone" snow pack along the east coast and allowed for many of the rivers and creeks to move some of their discharge downstream, albeit in a rather spectacular ice-jam fashion! In fact, check out this ice jam on the Ausable River in the Adirondacks of NY! Kay and I a few years back hiked along this river for a brief jaunt and I can only imagine the fury this river can unleash when prompted to do so by nature. Impressive!
Here is the recent snow cover first across the entire country...
...and locally here in PA...
And the snow pack makes a huge difference for the surface temps...take a look as of this writing. There is still a few hours for those temps to drop over the freshly fallen snow...
Now we will have a cold week in front of us; however, a true thaw likely through the end of this month is on the way for the eastern US. What I did was to look at the analog years for Day 11 from the "super-ensembles" and used the January month years to see what those years held in January. For those of you who do not like January thaws, this is not good news. First, here is the map from CPC (climate prediction center) I used for the years. Note the dates in the lower right hand corner...
Then I used NOAA's PSD (Physical Science Division) analysis and plotting to see how these Januarys stacked up...
And after our first upcoming 5 days...
...the modeling does suggest a major warm up is in store for places here in the east. Five day average temps 1 mile up ending 10 days hence...
So Smitty, are you saying winter is over? Nah...not at all, but as I did state earlier, the coldest of winter is past once we get beyond this disjointed system mid-week and the eastern trough will lift northeast allowing an upper air ridge to likely become established here in the east bringing above normal temps for the remainder of the month. But rest assured, we all know what February and March can do in these parts. Speaking of the mid-week disjointed system...the modeling is not impressed...
OK...I'm off to PF to move my body and get the blood flowing since sitting here pounding a keyboard generates minimal blood necessary for optimal performance. I rely on my morning cups of java for that kick start. I'll leave y'all with this "January Hymn" from The Decembrists...enjoy.
And for those of you so inclined, enjoy Day 2 of the NFL's divisional playoffs. Man could the Eagles play any worse and still walk away with a W?
Smitty
AA: A cold week lies ahead with a skiff of snow mid-week. Then a return to normal temps at first, then much above normal temps likely to close out January.
I've watched and studied the weather for essentially my entire adult life and times prior...I'm really straining into the memory banks as to when there was such a binary change in the wx in terms of both precip and temps...Every few years, we have an arctic front blast through that might give a quick inch or two of snow; but a flooding rain into ice into snow is very rare in these parts...and I am totally enthralled with what is occurring across the Ohio Valley into the northeast this evening....A few graphics...
I sent this to few colleagues earlier today; ~100°F from northern Minnesota to coastal Carolina on my Mind...don't see that too often...
And if this system produces as per the NAM, this is quite a quick change from spring to dead of winter...by sun-up...north central PA has been in a snow drought for a time...not so much now!
And temps will be steady to slowly falling Saturday...mid-day temps...
So I truly hope you got out today and enjoyed our brief "spring-fling"! Because the next 5 are UGLY in terms of temps once again... Take a look...my son will feel the chill in good old STL! Maybe that low temp anomaly is from this summer's total solar eclipse! Hahahaha!
And yes...there is yet another winter event for early next week...the upper air support is prime time...now let's see how it plays out on the surface since we don't hang out at 15K feet AGL...!
This is what the Euro thinks for snowfall once this system passes by next Thursday...
This winter's weather has been nothing short of spectacular...I encourage y'all to search twitter with #icejam to truly see how devastating these events can be! An ice jam at the Dauphin Narrows is what caused the water level at City Island, Harrisburg, Pa to raise 8' in 15 minutes and lift the Walnut Street Bridge to her demise...a situation very similar to what occurred today in many streams and rivers across the northeastern US, but then in 1996, PA had 2-3" snowpack on the ground in the SusQ drainage basin; not today...thankfully. For those of you who have never seen this, it is worth your 3-4 minutes...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6DxG9yOS1dQ
By the way, we had great sledding out here in Etters later that day as we did not lose all of our snow and the flash freeze made for quite a luge run out my buddy's back patio...lightning fast...ask KM! I can't believe that was 20+ years ago! Anyway for those of you who are winter-weary...here is the day 10 temps...!
OK...enjoy your weather whatever it might be; but please enjoy the power of nature. With all of that said, not sure what to leave y'all with? I did have one musical reference...so I hope you enjoy this rendition, I know I do!
I'm out...and feelin' much better...thanks!
Smitty
AA: Wild wx; cold next week with a likely disruptive system...then it does become walkable...the parking lot that is!
Just a quick update for my loyal readers...the next 36 hours in these parts will be quite unique in terms of the sensible weather. Just about all types of precip, then a hard, flash freeze...so whatever does accumulate, if any, get it cleared as arctic cold is invading for the weekend and beyond.
Just 4 maps 3 hours apart showing snow accumulations as per the reliable short range NAM...this also shows the incredible temperature drop at all levels with the approaching arctic air.
10 pm tonight...
1 hour after midnight tonight...
12 hours from now...(4am Saturday morning...)
Lastly, sunrise Saturday...
I will try to put out a more detailed "synopsis" later today; for now my cough has relaxed a bit and will get a bit more shut-eye; for those closest, I'm on the mend, but not there yet by any means...
No music...enjoy the "sound of silence"...or I could play that one! Nah...
G'nite...
Smitty
AA: Strong cold front to change rain to ice/snow and 60°F to 10°F in 48 hrs...!
Currently this evening I'm watching a variety of things, temperature of course being one of those. I just happened to scope Mt Washington's obs and they were ugly...and that's being kind! Likely worse by morning no doubt!
I've also been watching this "Bad moon on the rise" out my eastward facing window and that reminded me to inform my early risers to look SE predawn and potentially catch a glimpse of Mars-Jupiter in conjunction (side by side). The moon will pay a celestial visit with those two next Wed-Thursday time frame...That is one thing nice about arctic air; usually cloud free!
As for the weather, after the deepest part of the cold early Sunday, temps have nowhere to go but UP! The early am lows Sunday could be records if the winds subside...as per then NAM...(-10°F is not out of the question for KMDT if winds go calm at sunrise!)
The model is clearly detecting where there is and is no snow on the ground! Interesting... Anyway, here is the mid to late week Farm Show Thaw...so much for Farm Show nastiness! Impressive anomalies for warmth...Farm Show Friday...
Those of you who are astute observers of the wx will note there lurks yet another arctic blast to the northwest...but rest assured for those of you who want mud, the genuine thaw of January is coming gangbusters...check it out for week 3...the American ensembles...
So there will be minimal bouts of winter upcoming the next week, slop early (low cold air is hard to displace quickly), then rain late week, but my message is simple...the January Thaw is looming! Just like my song choice; I've listened to so many great tunes this evening. But since we are in such mid-winter conditions, I'll leave y'all with this. I hope you'll like...? Enjoy the tune...and for those of you who want out of the bleak mid-winter, a 2 week respite is in store I do believe! Enjoy it my Subaru compadre from Lanco...
So, with all of that said, enjoy your thaw, but first... enjoy your bitter cold week's end!
Smitty
AA: The worst of winter is NOW in terms of cold. A 2-3 week thaw is coming starting middle of farm show week. Ironic...ehhh? Thinking February has a couple of major snow events...different story for a different day! We can peruse the lots in late January without special clothing! Can we protest the PAT attempt?
Obviously, when the temperature is able to bottom out at -5°F (here in Etters), all is quiet and still on New Year's morn. Yesterday afternoon, I made a proclamation to my lovely bride that I felt that we'd drop below 0°F by morning. Of course, she mandated the site be KMDT; you know, the official NWS climatological site for Harrisburg, PA. So at 5 am, I read to her the official NWS observations starting with York, PA (KTHV). Now, in case you are not aware, the Thomasville airport serves as the York, PA weather data site. The location of this airport sits out along route 30 about 7 miles west of downtown York. There is minimal human development in the vicinity of the airport in what is largely an agricultural area and thus, great radiational cooling is able to occur under clear skies and calm winds. The graphic below depicts optimal radiational cooling conditions. It also shows our 1st Full Moon of 2018 occuring at 9:24 pm this evening!
With the Saturday snowfall of just under 5" at my humble abode and a slightly lesser amount around York, the thermometer at 5am was a genuinely gelid -9°F at KTHV! But my wife quickly asked, "OK, that's nice, but what is it at Harrisburg?" Below is a screen shot of the 5am obs in central PA...
With the air moving from the NW at 6 mph, this prevented the coldest air to settle at the surface whilst in York, a calm wind made for optimal cold air collection! However, 2 hours later, KMDT officially dropped to below 0 bottoming out at -2°F. Here is the 7am screenshot of the obs when KMDT dropped below 0°F...
Also this am, I was perusing the NWS website and was just taken back at how widespread the watches and warnings were for dangerous cold and anomalous cold...take a look...
And the apparent temps across the northern plains were simply brutal; freezingly frigid at best! Ouch!
And this cold is forecast to persist for the next couple of weeks...1st 5 day anomaly...
And the 2nd 5 day anomaly...Farm Show week looks to be quite cold!
By the way, still watching a very powerful ocean storm developing later this week with some uncertainty as to its exact path...still not writing off a shift closer to the coast.
But either way, an even slightly colder shot of the arctic is poised to invade on Friday with gusty NW winds from the land of Nunavut! Saturday morning likely to be at or below 0°F in these parts....Brrrrr...
OK...off to Lancaster County for pork and sauerkraut over a bed of mashed spuds! Nothing changes on New Year's Day! U'all know what's coming...U2! Enjoy...
Stay warm; I'm out!
Smitty
AA: Coldest New Year's minimum temp at KMDT since the climatological records began in 1888! Likely to see another sub-zero day or two before moderation of this arctic cold by middle of next week. Happy New Year my friend!
