A Day Of In-fa-MAY 31

I remember May 31, 1985 so very well.  The conclusion to my first year as a public school teacher and Memorial Day had just past.  Anticipation for my first summer vacation (where I would hold another job during the summer months!)  The week following Memorial Day 1985 was rather warm and humid for even the end of May in these parts (very different than what the last several days have been like in 2017).  Here's the last 10 days temps from the norms...

As y'all know, I've been an avid weather watcher for essentially my entire life and the May 31, 1985 outbreak of tornadoes sticks in my memory banks very similarly to the April 3-4, 1974 outbreak and the April 25-28, 2011 outbreak.  In fact, my Twitter picture is the 6:00 am EDT radar scan from State College when a tornadic cell passed through the KMDT region.  My commute that morning was adventurous as I had numerous detours getting to CDHS.  A few of my colleagues even commented on seeing wind damage (which upon further review was indeed caused by an F1 tornado!).  Here's a satellite loop for the 3 day April 2011 outbreak...Sweet Home Alabama was hardest hit.

(Since the .jpeg will not loop, here is the link that shows the movement of the 3 day outbreak if you're so inclined to view...)

https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?title=File%3ASevere_Tornado_Outbreak_in_the_Southern_United_States.ogv

We actually had a touch of snow here in south central PA in early April 1974 as hot and humid air was entrenched west of the Appalachians and a nasty polar air mass was on the move from the NW.   Four differing air masses collided in the Ohio Valley and the Xenia, OH F5 tornado of 1974 will also be well remembered!

Now, back to May 31, 1985.  The longest tornado actually snapped many trees that created a natural path through the state forest called Moshannon near a state park called Parker Dam.  After walking many miles through relatively deep and thick PA woodlands, my wife and I emerged into an area that had been recently cleared but in a manner that was quite strange.  That's because the trees were snapped in multiple heights and debris was scattered about.  A foot trail appropriately called "Tornado Path" ventures along this once meteorological turbulent path in Parker Dam State Park.  The longest path in north central PA (#24 below) is the F3-4 tornado that caused that destruction!  Take a look at the some of the 66 tornadoes on that day...

In case you're not familiar with the Dr. Ted Fujita Scale or want or need the review, take a gander...

Here is a visible satellite pic of the 1985 squall line that produced these long lived supercells...

May 31, 1998 also made the meteorological term "Derecho" mainstream amongst the wx fanatics...essentially a strong line of fast moving thunderstorms that produced damaging winds in a widespread path...see below...

And unfortunately back to PA...May 31, 1889...Johnstown Flood #1.  That was the largest inland flash flood with loss of life for the entire history of the USA!

And with all of that weather history, I'll close by saying that May 31, 2017 was a bittersweet day for me.  Not for the weather; it was actually quite benign.  As I reflect on my past academic year,  I had many wonderful students from the Class of 2017 these past 2 years who I believe were exposed to and appreciated the insights as to how our earth and its systems interact with each other in this wonderful natural world.  May the "real" world into which they venture also treat them benignantly.  

I'm sure I missed a few infamous May 31 events, but that nasty PA outbreak is ingrained into my deep memory banks.  Those of you with family and friends from western PA/Johnstown, I'm sure the 1889 flood is one for memories/stories.  Those from southern NY, the derecho was nasty and newsworthy and memorable.  And if you're a midwesterner, the 1974 Super-Outbreak is one for your personal books.  I'm just happy that as I sit here and touch the keys, a waxing crescent is shining down with only a few high cirrus obstructing an otherwise perfectly blue sky. 

That's it...Blue Sky!  RIP Gregg Allman.  Enjoy!

Smitty

AA:  Looking back at some major weather events that occurred on May 31 over the years!

1.  1985 PA Tornado Outbreak

2.  1889 Johnstown Flood

3.  1998 Southern Great Lakes through southern NY and northern PA

4.  I also included other very memorable outbreaks for me personally (2011 and 1974, not May 31)

Taking Advice from Alison

June...

July...

August...

Like I said...listening to Alison....I hope you do too...

Cool through Memorial Day...had to get that in...a least!

Smitty

AA:  Watch AK Video...

Cool to Rule

After what has been a hearty and healthy preview to the upcoming summer, the weather will again revert back to the norms and below some for the upcoming weeks.  First, let's look back at the past 5 days in terms of temperatures...

It was most decidedly cold in the west where feets of snow fell in the inter-mountains of WY and CO, but here in the east it was quite toasty!  The warmest temperature I could find was a 96°F reading in Hartford, CT both Wednesday and Thursday while here in Harrisburg we just missed a heat wave by ONE measly degree on Friday as we tied a record on Wednesday (91°F), reached the same on Thursday without cracking the record books, but only hit 89°F yesterday!  Heat wave denied!  Try telling that to my wife!  And as most of you are aware, no AC here either.  It's gotta get very warm and humid for Smitty to contribute to the coffers of the utilities!  Kay calls this the "Scrooge Report"!

But what prompted me to blog this gloriously cooler and drier morning is the fact that I believe the next few weeks will be much cooler as to what we just experienced.  Take a look...

The next 10 days...

The next 15 days...

 

And for basically the next month...

The Euro is in agreement as well for the next month with its center of cool positioned a tad further west.  The signal from the models though is essentially..."cool to rule"...

OK...gotta get moving this am.  It's amazing to watch nature awake from its slumber of overnight.  And the change of air mass was incredible whilst I myself slumbered during the night.  So I'll leave y'all with this 1986 Fogerty ditty.  I really liked this tune as a younger guy; but then again, I like the Fogerty sound!  Enjoy!

And enjoy your week's end!

Smitty

AA:  Much cooler for the next few weeks; many more below normal days than above norms.  Also with some precip to make those green blades grow:  you know..."Job Security"!  Below map is total precip through the rest of May...

Also...I've been trying my hand on Facebook, too.  For timely map postings and very brief analysis, if you do Facebook, "Like" SmittysSynopsis page on Facebook.

https://www.facebook.com/smittyssynopsis/

Not a Weather Blog

Today was a very special day.  Maundy Thursday to be sure!  Possibly the most "Holy" of the days of Holy Week.  But for me today, it was much more than that.  Today was about how we adults can help influence and properly guide our youths to create an even better future for those who follow.  As most of you know, I teach...science.  And that is my primary goal; to help have the populous a little bit be more informed about how the world of "science" views this world.  But I also am a human being...and with that said, I try to help people to treat others like...well...people!

April 10, 2013 was an impactful day for me and my family.  Merely 4 years ago, we lost our "Patriarch" and with that it changed my thoughts/actions.  I truly began to prioritize; which I am still doing to this day.  But today also reminded me very much why I enjoy working with adolescents and young adults...even though there are times it can be very challenging.  For some, the 2 hour baseball game may have been lengthy; to me, a blink of an eye!  When Robbie Ram came up to bat, I had so many thoughts going through my head...where will this young man be next year?  How about 10 years hence?  Will he be "fighting the good fight?"?  Will he have a family, living the dream as we all say?

But the ONE thing I reflect upon is the fact that there are still many teachers/coaches that help influence these young and impressionable kids to make good decisions not only about the day to day issues of the sport/event in which they are involved, but the end goal of post high school.  And for that, I am very thankful.  These young men/women who work with these kids long past the hours that I have in me furthermore...so if you are are one of those workers....THANK YOU!  I truly appreciate your efforts....not only to get that "W", but more importantly to get those kids to work for a goal.

And whether that goal is academic or athletic; it is a goal!  And goal setting might be the best actionable event that occurs not only in adolescents, but also adults!

OK...enough...and there will be no weather!  I just wanted to reflect on positivity of our Central Dauphin Community!  Because, I saw it today at Barton Field at CDHS!

Happy Easter to all who read this far!

Smitty

Looking Towards Summer

This evening whilst viewing my favorite TV show (Weather World-PCN), Dr Jon Nese was reviewing the February-March temps at 3 locations in PA; one in the NW part of the state, State College, and one in the SE part of the state.  In all 3 of these locations, it appears that March will average cooler for the entire month than February.  As is often the case, the climatologist that lies within Dr Nese went through the data banks and found only THREE common years where March was cooler than February at all 3 locations.  Dr Nese went on to say that there was no real signal as to what to expect for the upcoming summer months in terms of the weather.  Well, I had to check for myself since he did all of the truly heavy lifting by analyzing the March cooler than February months at the 3 locations in PA.  So here is what I found out...

First the temperature anomaly...not much of a signal as Dr Nese stated.  Slightly cooler than normal here...but slightly warmer across the mid-section of the country.  Also, possibly an active hurricane/tropical storm season affecting Florida and a strong on-shore flow across the PAC NW.

As for precip...well...what a mess that is!  Looks like a Christmas Tree!  A total piecemeal of wet/dry areas, some directly juxtaposed with each other.  Florida is wet but the PAC NW surprisingly dry. Looks like a slightly stronger than normal western USA "monsoon", but that is really grasping at straws!  Again, no real strong signal...

As for drought, it looks a tad dry across the northern plains and the Ohio Valley and some signal into the Arklotex region, but adequate moisture for most of the remainder of the country with the lone but typical exception of far western coastal CA.  The Yellowstone River looks like it would be quite low during these years...

So what's up for June-August 2017?  Not really too sure yet...just so most of the country is under clear skies for August 21!  The Great American Eclipse will traverse this great country.  May high pressure grace our continent and inhibit convection this day!

With all of that said, I will continue to try to look for signals as to what this summer might bring.  But it will certainly bring an astronomical phenomenon of one's lifetime!  So get out and enjoy it...and enjoy this...

Only a few days until MLB opening day...summer has to be just around the corner!

Smitty

AA:  Summer, using only one set of data, looks to be reasonably normal in these parts with the exception of a 75-80% eclipse of the sun here in our region...gotta go just a tad south and/or west to be in the path of totality!

Weather and Politics

The 2 shall never meet...Wx and politics.  Nor should they aside from in this brief post.  Many times, political agendas want climate study and politics to meet; and often they need to in order for funding of said research to be continued.  But none of that here.  I fund my own research by analyzing openly both sides of the debate.  But that is not today's political discussion.  Today's political posit is of a far more local flavor; more on the scale of say...microclimatology!  How about the size of a school district or even more specifically a region within a school district.  And even more specifically, electoral Region 2 of the Central Dauphin School District.  My political post here is for support of my former colleague, building level administrator, and good friend Mr. Richard Mazzatesta.

I've known "Mazz" for my entire professional career.  One of the reasons Mazz was such a strong leader as a building level administrator is due to the fact that he taught in a secondary classroom for 19 years!  Once he "paid his dues" mixing it up with the students and staff on a daily basis in the classroom setting, he moved on to various levels of administration in a diverse setting of buildings and districts.  Experience has no equal; it's concise to state, Mazz has a boatload of experience both in the classroom and in the hinterlands of various administrative positions in public education.  It is my belief that Mazz would be an excellent addition to the CDSD school board of directors and a strong voice for the advocacy of education for both the students and staff working in the district within the constraints of fiscal and societal realities.  Simply put, Mazz finds ways to "get things done".

So Smitty, what can I do to show support for Mazz?  Please understand, I'm not a big FACEBOOK guy, but Mazz now has a Facebook page where people can keep up to date with his ideals, posts, etc...  Just simply "Friend" him and he will reciprocate in kind.  He is slowly learning Facebook to help get the word out for his interest in the Region 2 CDSD seat.  He states that Facebook is new to him, but the PA Public School code is NOT!   His Facebook link is...

https://www.facebook.com/richard.mazzatesta.7

Many of you reading this were also colleagues of Mazz'.  So go ahead, "friend" him on Facebook and support his bid to venture into local politics and make a difference where his experience is second to none in the public schools.  Let's spread the word for Mazz both verbally and electronically!

As for the weather, we all know February was quite warm when compared to normals; in fact, it was warm not even comparing it to anything but the absolute temps!  Take a look...

But March showed a late winter reversal both in terms of temps...

...and nearfall backpoints with that one nice late winter snowfall...

and a satellite view of above storm...

It looks as if April might return to above normal temps as the CFSv2 indicates on its recent runs...

But an astute observer might notice a coolish signal from the Mid-Atlantic and lower Lakes up through New England.  The dirty work of wet ground and melting snows will tend to keep temps "squashed" to some extent, especially the 2-3 weeks prior to Easter Sunday.  Here is the Euro's take on precip for the next 10 days; regular and repeated bouts of precip in these parts to be sure...the GFS is very much the same, albeit a tad wetter...

OK...enough.  Time to stretch my aching back and perform more of my recently learned ELDOA exercises.  These are to help elongate the disk space within the vertebrae and alleviate compressional pain.  Sometimes, I think I'm just getting old!  But I'm really trying not to do so...

I'll leave y'all with this favorite of mine...in keeping with the politics...or trying to avoid political affiliation and simply working for sensible solutions as Jackson Browne is advocating...

Enjoy the remainder of your week!

Smitty

AA:  In support of Mazz for CDSD school board and it looks as if a wet 2-3 weeks is on tap.  The next rain will come Friday; +/- 1.25" by Saturday I believe in these parts.  Then about every 3 days, another soaker here in our region...

Definitive Dennis

Well, today is my twin brothers' birthday.  OK Smitty, what does that have to do with the price of coffee in Columbia?  I'm glad you asked!  When conversing with my one brother today, he reminded me of the stories our father told of toting home his March 12 newborns from the hospital in very deep snow.  That was 1956; and here are the snow totals from that notable storm.

Now that 1956 storm was simply an Alberta Clipper on steroids.  It did not have the same upper air support as what we are seeing for the impending system to affect the upper mid-west, mid-Atlantic and New England.  Nor did it have a low pressure system that emanated from the Gulf of Mexico that this synoptic set-up will have.  When a 500 mb closed low strolls through northern VA as shown below, that is often a south central PA special!  Those screaming winds at 18,000 ft will spin up quite a nor'easter.  Take a look...

And here is another look at the height anomaly for this 500 mb pressure field.  If you are a snow lover, that graphic is a thing of beauty coupled with the surface features!  Also, a ridge over Yellowstone often delivers the goods here as well...It seems to me the stars have aligned for a south central PA special!

I will display just one snowfall model map; the Euro dynamic ratio map.  This takes into account many variables that contribute to dendrite growth; upward motion, upper air temps, and deep atmospheric moisture.  It is essentially a weighted average of all of the atmospheric variables that supply the snowflakes their necessary ingredients to develop.  Check it out...

That heavy band from LANCO to Albany, NY is a combo of a front-end heavy snowfall and the backlash of the deformation of high ratio snows.  Where that backlash band sets up could add an additional 6"+ on the earth below...those are ALWAYS tricky to forecast.  

I also like to look at analogs too.  Here is the top analog based on the GFS...Since this is a February storm below, all of the snow accums are a bit further south; shift this a hundred miles north and east and this looks very close to the Euro output.  Time will tell...

What I do know is that it is quite cold!  Take a look at what should be our max temps for the day!  Temps will not be an issue here at the surface; however, if the storm deepens rapidly and pulls in milder ocean air in the upper levels, a period of sleet could materialize leading to some concrete type accumulations under the fluffy backlash that will blow and drift to some extent!  Warnings might even elevate to blizzard conditions if the wind can become an issue.  I don't believe that will happen here in the KMDT area, but we may see Blizzard conditions and warnings hoisted in the Lehigh Valley of PA.  Brrrrr...

Below is the wind map for Wednesday; a large pressure gradient is setting up across PA for later Tuesday night into Wednesday as high pressure builds in from the NW.  Tuesday's winds will be manageable...

Ok...I think you get the picture; a classic March winter storm is on the horizon.  I guess you could accurately call it Meteorological March Madness!  So my final definitive call; +/- 2" either side of 14; in other words, let's go 12-16".  I'm concerned that I might be a tad conservative, but I am often called "Chicken Little" amongst my friends.  So being the conservative that I am,  I will go conservative with my definitive totals.  After all, the Indigo Girls seem to agree; "...The Less I seek my source for some definitive, the closer I am to fine". Enjoy their take...

And enjoy your Meteorological March Madness!

Smitty

AA:  Looking at a major snowstorm in these parts Monday night into Wednesday.  My final call; 12-16" with cold to follow.  Snow will be around for awhile, too!  Also, keeping an eye wide open for this weekend.  Another clipper to invade with yet another likely accumulating snowfall.  The winter that never was now doesn't want to leave!