It Always Seems This Way

Now being guilty of how most view weather and climate, I should back up the title with data from the past.  However, perception is often more important than reality.  And the perception to which I allude is that it always seems to get hot once school begins in September!  This year will be no different.  Just take a look at how our August has been so far to date...

And more closer to the current time; how about just the last 10 days.  Trust me, the 5+ºC anomaly is welcomed by many in the nation's mid-section at this time of year!

But all of this is about to change.  A large upper ridge is building over the eastern part of North America and will remain entrenched for what I believe will be well into the month of September.  With that said, heat and humidity will be able to build from the Mississippi east and prolong summer up until the equinox...gut feeling at this point!  Take a look at the 500 mb ridge over downeast O Canada for the start of September.  The jet stream will be well north of our latitude here in the eastern portion of North America.  You can see the "blue" anomaly in Texas; the model is sniffing out a potential tropical system which at this time of year is always a potential proverbial "fly in the ointment"!

And that ridge holds through Labor Day!  There's not too much difference between the 2 maps although more tropical mischief is showing up in the SE USA potentially but these tropical systems are difficult for global models to detect this far in advance.

And speaking of tropical troubles, here is the latest from the NHC (National Hurricane Center) as to the path and strength of Erika...

It now appears as if it will be a major rainmaker for the state of Florida as it passes over the Keys as a minimal tropical storm and its remnants will deliver much precip to the SE USA.  Here is a graphic showing precip over the next 5 days as per the Euro...

So, one must always be wary of the tropics at this time of year.  But lets look at how the temps are forecast to be into September...first for the entire month:

And let's see how we achieve this.  I will show graphics of temperature anomalies for 10 day periods starting with this weekend through Labor day:

Next, the middle of the month...

And lastly, the cooling that is seen as the pattern breaks down by month's end...

So as usual, I'll leave you with a little ditty that relates in some way to the above topic.  In this case, the beginning of school and the end of summer; however, the weather will not cooperate with the latter at least until mid-September!  Enjoy this folksy effort from The White Stripes...

And enjoy your week's end...

Smitty

AA:  Warm to hot and mostly dry for us here in PA for the start of September.  Likely our warmest stretch of weather all summer when compared to the "normals"!  Nice parking lot weather!

What's Wrong With This Picture?

So...what IS wrong with this picture?

Although the resolution of the graphic is not the best, yes...the Phillies did SWEEP the Marlins with their walk-off win on Sunday!  And that would be a correct answer to be sure as to what is wrong with the above graphic!  However, being the wx guy that I am, I was alluding to the last 2 games listed with a wx related postponement in both San Diego and Anaheim!  That's correct...it never rains in California...especially in July.  In fact for the Angels, it was their 1st rainout in 2 decades dating back to 1995.  Additionally, the Angels in their 55 years in SOCAL have only lost 16 games to rain; all but 2 being during the months of either September or April!  All of this rain over the past weekend compliments of what was tropical storm Delores.  The 0.36" of rain that LA received on Saturday was by far a record for July!

Here is how the NWS Doppler radar appeared during the widespread rainfall for the desert SW...

And this "blob" of moisture continues to move across the Great Basin of the western USA...note the areal flood watches and localized flood warning near Las Vegas which again is very rare for mid-summer.

Here is the water vapor imagery as of this morning...also note the huge cluster of storms over the mid-section of our country as well...

And this "blob" of moisture and atmospheric energy in the form of deep moisture and the associated latent heat should enhance some storminess over the Rockies and into the Plains the next couple of days...here is a look at the precipitable water anomalies approaching 2-3 stand deviations above the norms across the 4 corners spreading into the southern plains...of course the big blob of moisture remains in the atmosphere off the coast of CA!

And here is how this manifests itself in terms of western storminess...

OK...OK...enough of the west Smitty...but what about us here in PA?  Well, the next graphic I show you is somewhat ironic and more telling as to how much cooling is again on the move for midweek.  Here is a 5 day average of temps that included yesterdays observed heat and the forecasted heat for today...

And the coolest 5 day stretch I could find centered on Wednesday afternoon with the map below...

As for you lovers of summer and you beach bums...well, next week, the heat will return along with the moderate to high humidity...quite frankly...typical late July wx...

As an aside..."Late July" is an awesome product...sorry I digress...(and no, I am not trying to monetize this blog)...

So with that I'm off to throw some kettle-bells around, row a bit, and brush Ziggy and Zola.  (Our 2 dogs get crazy when they get brushed; its really quite humorous!) I'll be listening to the 70s whilst I move about with this ditty possibly popping up on XM...I hope you enjoy as much as I will...

Enjoy the week...and the break from heat and humidity Wed-Friday!

Smitty

AA:  Two rare west coast rainouts yesterday...so your BoSox play 2 today!  As for us, hot & humid today with storms breaking the heat and humidity Tuesday afternoon.  Nice wx for Wed-Friday...enjoy it!  Big Orioles-Yankees series this week!  Let's Go Os!

Weather Not Acting Like July 4

As I contemplated the meaning of this day, July 4, my thoughts run the gamut about America, freedom, and independence.  Essentially, just how blessed I am to live in this beautiful country!  But as many of you are aware, ultimately my thoughts turn to the weather.  July 4 can often be...(and is more often than not according to my lovely bride)...quite warm/hot and humid in these parts.  So that is why we keep records...to simply verify what the past has been.  Below is a table of the high & low temps along with the precip data for the last July 4ths back to 1990.  A quick perusal of the data indicates that when temps remain cooler than normal, precip is most likely involved. By the way, mathematically, the mean max for the data shown is 86.5.

Today's holiday will be below normal in terms of temps.  Currently as I sit here and type this out, temps are typical for early am in these parts for this time of year.  Maybe even slightly warmer due to the clouds and light rain falling at present...

And the 2 weak areas of low pressure and their associated frontal boundaries to the south and west of PA at this time will translate north and east as we celebrate America this weekend.  Here is the current surface map...

And today's official forecast for KMDT has a high temp of 70ºF with a few showers about.  In fact, from all of the ensemble members of the GFS, the highest temp I can find is 75ºF for today.  So it appears that the 2015 version of July 4 will be much below normal in terms of temperature.

And this area of rain will need to progress to the north and east before Sunday's much more summer-like weather will dawn.

Looking a bit further out in time, the cooler than normal scenario looks as if it just might play out more often than not in this upcoming month of July.  Next Monday's lows according to the GFS will be quite cool in these parts...

In fact, looking at the upper air prog, it could get quite cool and unsettled if there is more of a "phasing" or deepening of the trough which I believe is likely to occur.  The area of cool to the north looks to be too far east.  So if it is slowed, the equatorward dip in the isobars will be much more pronounced here in the eastern CONUS.

The Euro is in agreement to some extent...but it keeps the cool pool aloft back maybe too far west.  Time will tell!

Interestingly, the meteogram for KCXY does not show a 90ºF for the next 10 days...low to mid 80s are not too hard to take IMO...I do believe there will be a bit more rainfall than the GFS kicks out however.

Here is a graphic of the 5 day means centered on next weekend...cooler than normal is clearly the signal.

And how about the climate model for the month of July...same signal...

So there you have it.  On this July 4, 2015 a quick discussion of the near term, medium range, and monthly ideas for temp and too some extent precip.  And since this is America thanks to the patriots who lived (and died) their dream of freedom and independence, I have the ability to spew this propaganda out for anyone to read if they choose to do so.  (And I appreciate those of you who do!) So I will leave you with one of my favorite patriotic tunes...and I hope you enjoy it as much as I.

Happy 4th y'all...

Smitty

AA:  A damp and cool 4th of July.  Plenty of mowing will continue as there is ample soil moisture and temps will be conducive to grass growing!  Os need to snap out of their funk.  Glad to see the Sox helped this past week!

Quite a Summer Mid-Latitude Cyclone

As I was awoken just a bit ago due to yet another band of heavy rainfall moving through our area, my mind was inspired by the thoughts of "it's been quite a storm for the summertime...and quite a month of June in terms of rainfall".  So I thought I'd share with y'all just how wet its been and how this storm has evolved over the last couple of days.  Frankly, we still have the upper level part to contend with today; however, most of the rainfall associated with that should remain well to our north and west.  Let's take a look...

First the surface map for the present...

This is a classic Miller-B type system which shows the main storm moving off to our NW with a secondary storm forming somewhere in the mid-Atlantic and the entire system pulls off towards the retreating higher pressures ridging back into New England.  In the winter, these storms tend to be rather tricky in determining snow amounts as the transfer of energy often skews the precip.  Yesterday, I had just over an inch during the day while places off to our south and east had 2-3 times that!  In the winter, a difference between a plowable and a crippling snowfall...

Here is how the storm appeared just 12 hours earlier with the moderate to at times heavy rains coming down...Why the Philles organization decided to start yesterday's game is a complete enigma to me?  Just another boneheaded decision made by that "Major" league organization over the last few years!

Now let's look at the 500 mb upper level support for this system.  As I mentioned, the upper low will affect our sensible wx today as it moves over the northeast...below is a 500 mb anomaly map; very low pressure for this time of the year moving over PA later this morning...

But by Monday morning, one of the upper lows pulls off towards the NE while a 2nd upper low is getting to affect us for later Tuesday...in the map below, it is located over the IL-IN border...

So by Monday morning, we should be greeted by mainly sunny & dry wx awaiting yet another frontal passage for later Tuesday...here is the Euro's take on the frontal system traversing PA on Tuesday afternoon.  I suspect we could have a few boomers with the front as it moves across our region during the max heating of the day on Tuesday afternoon...by the way, the system below you can see in the first (top) map located over Minnehaha and the Dakotas this morning.  A progressive wx pattern...

But just how wet has it been Smitty?  QUITE!  In my reports to COCORAHS, I've had only FIVE (5) days in June without any recorded precip!  FIVE!  After yesterday and overnight, I will be well over 10" of rain for the month.  Those of you who remember June 1972...the month of Agnes for these parts, this month was wet, but nothing compared to the same time period in 1972!  18.55" of rain fell in June 1972...This month follows a month that was opposite.  While in May KMDT received over 3.5" of rain, a bit more than 1/3 of it fell on the last day of the month!  So basically June0th...ha!

Here is May's dry month over PA...many dry colors with the lone thunderstorm over Lebanon County...eh?  The NW part of the state was slightly above normal...

Compare that with June to date.  By the way, the map below does not include Saturday's deluge!  DOES NOT INCLUDE!

So...there are my random weather thoughts this early Sunday morning.  I do know that the July 4 week is upcoming and many want to know what might be on tap...well, here is the GFS' take on temps in the upcoming 5 day period ending next weekend...temps slightly below norms for us here in PA but warming for the July 4 weekend.  The pool of cool over the corn belt and the Grateful Dead shows in Chicago!

Here is the Euro's total precip from this morning until the end of next weekend...note how hot and dry it is (and has been) over the Pacific NW!

OK...I'm gonna leave you with a Grateful Dead song...honoring their reunion tour less a few souls...You know, I always like to tell this quick story.. back in 1995, I was actually staying in Chicago overnight awaiting a flight back to KMDT the night after being blessed with a visit to my buddy's cabin in the north country of Wisconsin and subsequent travels to Minnesota!  Myers, my north country move-away friend, actually mentioned that we should venture out to Soldier Field for the Dead show...only about 20 miles from where we were at the time.  Unfortunately, we were all beat from our escapades in the outdoors and simply wanted to rest, recover, and be ready for our 6 am flight in the am.  So Myer's thoughts of ending our trip with a Dead show quickly were vanquished.  If I knew then what I know now...?  Wow.  The lovely song below was done as an encore at their Soldier Field finale in July 1995...take time to listen to the lyrics and the music itself...an awesome tune!

OK...I'm out and off to do something I love to do in the summer around the solstice.  Get a cup of coffee and watch the dawn awaken while sitting quietly on my front porch with my 2 mongrels traipsing around the property terrorizing any bold critter who ventures onto the mowed lawn region of our property...

Enjoy your Sunday and the week before we celebrate America's independence!

Smitty

AA:  A stray shower yet this Sunday.  Drying out Monday and early Tuesday before another few storms pass through Tuesday afternoon.  Then a slow warming and drying trend into the July 4th weekend!  Go Os, Go Sox, and keep your mower blades honed!

Some Wet, Some Cool, Some Stormy, No Fool(ing)

I just thought that I would create a little informational update about the weather and how it's been behaving over the last few days or so...

Some Wet:  Here of course and as most are aware, in the southern plains.  Take a look at this precip graphic.  First off...PA for the last week...much needed rainfall.

And the southern plains were simply inundated with rainfall this past month!  The Pacific NW did receive rainfall, but the graphic was simply missing some data.

OK...now onto Some Cool.  Bostonians are quite familiar with cool summers.  But something has happened TWICE this week in Boston that has not happened but one other time since records have been kept from 1872.  On a  June day, the temperature never reached 50ºF!  This occurred both Monday and Tuesday when the max for both days was 49ºF!  That is quite impressive!  I remember being in Fenway Park on the Summer Solstice for a night game with my bride when the game time temperature was announced as 48ºF...and the crowd cheered wildly; crazy New Englanders!  Here is a graphic of today's midday temps...

Now on to some stormy...this doesn't happen too often.  A tropical system in the eastern Pacific will strengthen and make landfall into the southern Baja with its remnant moisture possibly giving beneficial rains to the deserts of the American west.  At least this is what the models seem to be suggesting...and are in remarkably good agreement...take a look...first many of the tropical models and global models other than the GFS...

And the GFS ensembles...

Current topside view...

And finally our own upcoming weather...a large high pressure system looks to rule the roost this weekend until a front pushes through with a bit more cooler air from O Canada later Monday pm.

First high pressure over SE Canada to clear us out...valid Saturday am...

Front coming through later Monday...

OK, just wanted to inform y'all about the nature of the weather over this country and what appears to be a very pleasant weekend on tap.  Speaking of this weekend, will we finally have a triple crown winner?  Time will only tell?

Enjoy this 1st week of June...

Smitty

AA:  Its been wet here in eastern PA, Boston set 2 records for min max temps, a hurricane will threaten Baja and carry its moisture north into our deserts, and we will have a nice weekend weatherwise...and hopefully otherwise as well!  Enjoy!