Some Wet, Some Cool, Some Stormy, No Fool(ing)

I just thought that I would create a little informational update about the weather and how it's been behaving over the last few days or so...

Some Wet:  Here of course and as most are aware, in the southern plains.  Take a look at this precip graphic.  First off...PA for the last week...much needed rainfall.

And the southern plains were simply inundated with rainfall this past month!  The Pacific NW did receive rainfall, but the graphic was simply missing some data.

OK...now onto Some Cool.  Bostonians are quite familiar with cool summers.  But something has happened TWICE this week in Boston that has not happened but one other time since records have been kept from 1872.  On a  June day, the temperature never reached 50ºF!  This occurred both Monday and Tuesday when the max for both days was 49ºF!  That is quite impressive!  I remember being in Fenway Park on the Summer Solstice for a night game with my bride when the game time temperature was announced as 48ºF...and the crowd cheered wildly; crazy New Englanders!  Here is a graphic of today's midday temps...

Now on to some stormy...this doesn't happen too often.  A tropical system in the eastern Pacific will strengthen and make landfall into the southern Baja with its remnant moisture possibly giving beneficial rains to the deserts of the American west.  At least this is what the models seem to be suggesting...and are in remarkably good agreement...take a look...first many of the tropical models and global models other than the GFS...

And the GFS ensembles...

Current topside view...

And finally our own upcoming weather...a large high pressure system looks to rule the roost this weekend until a front pushes through with a bit more cooler air from O Canada later Monday pm.

First high pressure over SE Canada to clear us out...valid Saturday am...

Front coming through later Monday...

OK, just wanted to inform y'all about the nature of the weather over this country and what appears to be a very pleasant weekend on tap.  Speaking of this weekend, will we finally have a triple crown winner?  Time will only tell?

Enjoy this 1st week of June...

Smitty

AA:  Its been wet here in eastern PA, Boston set 2 records for min max temps, a hurricane will threaten Baja and carry its moisture north into our deserts, and we will have a nice weekend weatherwise...and hopefully otherwise as well!  Enjoy!

Unofficial Start Of Summer

Memorial Day means many things to many people; picnics, grilling, camping, beach, parades, veteran ceremonies (most important!), long weekend...but it also is viewed as the "unofficial start of summer weather".  Memorial Day 2015 will not disappoint!  Let me explain...

As I sit here and gather my thoughts and maps, the current air mass in place is quite cool and dry for this time of year.  Here is a snapshot of the current warnings and advisories over the CONUS.  Note the heavy rains progged for the southern plains while here in the northeast, we are being invaded by frosty weather...the deep navy colors are freeze warnings while the brighter blues are frost advisories.

Here are the current 2 am temps...first of all centered on New England...

...and now centered on our immediate area...

With our days now lasting nearly 14.75 hours, it is quite difficult for temps to drop very low before  'ol sol makes his appearance and begins to warm the earth once again.  So temps in the 30s are quite impressive in PA and a few spots dropping into the 20s by 5 am will be anomalous. My "old-timer" acquaintances who have lived in northern PA have always mentioned "ya can't grow a good tomato in northern PA"!  With such a short growing season, no doubt...

Here is the reason for the rains in Texas and the chill here in the northeast...the 500 mb configuration.  The current trough over the northeast and the vigorously digging trough into southern California and the deserts of the SW...By the way, yesterday afternoon during the max heating of the day, many locations set record min maxes for the day!

Record statement from San Diego wx office...chilly viewing of the heavens at Mt. Palomar!

But by Memorial Day, the 500 mb pattern will switch bathing the east in a "Bermuda High" type set-up...take a look...

This will allow temps to rather quickly warm so that we are looking at mid-upper 80s M-Th timeframe...I would not be surprised to see a 90ºF reading in these parts...the map below indicates the above normal temps here in the northeast while the wet ground in TX keeps temps below the seasonal norms there...

This is quite a turnaround from our current anomalies...15-25ºF below norms this early morning in PA and New York...

And once the turnaround occurs with these temps, the GFS ensembles suggest they will be here well into June!  Take a look...

We are dry through Memorial Day...protected by the build ridge aloft...

But with weakening and dying fronts attacking the Bermuda High from the north and west, we will see some showers and thunderstorms later next next and the "weakness" in the atmosphere will likely allow for numerous threats of summer-like convection through the next weekend and beyond...total precip next 10 days...only the coastal plain will likely remain dry and frankly...hot!

So that is my synopsis and I'm sticking to it...I hope everyone has a safe and enjoyable Memorial Day weekend and gives at the very least some thought as to why we celebrate this last Monday in May.

And I'll leave you with this Jackson Browne political commentary...this is a great song, enjoy!

Here comes summer...

Smitty

AA:  Cool start to the weekend; becoming quite summery by Memorial Day.  Dry though next Tuesday or Wednesday, then showers are more and more likely.  Enjoy the time with your growing family...new memories and traditions!

Carpe Diem and Weather (of Course)

Hey...it's the FIRST SATURDAY IN MAY!  That means none other than weddings and DERBY DAY!  Carpe Diem (2) on top of Upstart (19) and Frosted (15)...go ahead, box 'em up and tell me Sunday morning how your ebet account has fared...ha!  Just trying to get a heartbeat utilizing yet another tactic as opposed to the mundane workout routine of "long, slow cardio".

OK...onto the weather.  As I mentioned last week, warm air is on the move.  This upcoming week looks to be quite warm in these parts as shown by the GFS averaging the next 5 days.

For many, this will be welcomed as the last 10 days of April have been quite cool east of the Mississippi with the lone exception of Florida...

And with the warmth comes "summer-like" weather as eyes will be focused off the SE coast with the development of POSSIBLY our 1st named tropical system of the year.  Not thinking this will earn a name or even should, but seeing that it is forming over abnormally warm waters off the FL-GA coast with a closed circulation cut from the jet, it just may earn at least a TD number.  Time will tell.  All of the global models are seeing it and have been for several days now.  Let's take a look...these are all forecasts for the late Thursday into Friday time frame...

GFS

EURO

THE BRITS

and THE CANUCKS

It would be nice to get some of that moisture up into the Piedmont and into PA but I do not think that is very likely.  We are certainly running a rainfall deficit of late and are sorely in need of rain to help things along during this critical time of the growing season.  Here is a precip anomaly map for the last 6 months...most would not have thought that we were this dry in south-central PA...

May is KMDT's wettest month of the year historically and with frequent frontal passages at this time of year, low pressure often forms on the front and enhances the rainfall along the east coast.  We will have 2 opportunities for this during the upcoming 7 days; on/about Tuesday and then again later next weekend.  Mother's Day 2015 might be a soggy one?

As for the temps this upcoming summer, look for near normal temps with the warmest weather coming likely in August and September.  I will quickly share June-July-August forecasts from the CFSv2 model that just ran yesterday...

JUNE

JULY

AUGUST

What I see in those previous 3 maps as I'm sure y'all do too is a wet southern plains.  That's good news if this were to verify.  Hook 'em horns with cool temps and frequent rains!  OK, time to peruse other interests on the worldwide web at this early morning hour.  Nothing like a freshly brewed cup of coffee (Caribou this am) doctored with some light cream while reading an opinionated but science based commentary on nutrition; primarily the effects of ketosis on the human body.  I know...I know...Smitty must have insomnia...

I hope everyone enjoys their FIRST SATURDAY OF MAY whether it involves the Kentucky Derby in some fashion or not.  And I'm sure most of you will most undoubtedly "Seize The Day"...subliminal implications intended!  I will leave you with a favorite of mine where in the 2nd verse, Mick croons about  this day...enjoy!

Smitty

AA:  It's Derby Day! Carpe Diem to win?  Warm week coming up.  Need some rain to keep that grass growing for my favorite lawn maintenance man!  How can you let A-Rod beat you...pinch hit HR in the 8th...c'mon man!  And only getting to CC for 2 through 6?  Ouch!  Enjoy your weekend my friend.

Textbook Example of Energy Phase

Obviously, I've not written for quite sometime.  However, as many of you know, that doesn't mean I have stopped studying the wx.  My time has recently been spent on other pursuits that involve trying to understand MY human body and its response to various stimuli including, but not limited to nutrition, exercise, and sleep.  However, as a slight diversion from my normal routine of late, I thought I'd share a classic example of jet stream energy phasing that if this were to occur in January or February, I'd be as excited as my Lab Ziggy is for his kibble-time!  This is classic and the maps created by Dr. Ryan Maue of WeatherBell really allow for one to clearly visualize the phasing of the disturbances.  I will show you the 500 mb maps and the height anomalies.  (Don't worry about what that really is; just watch how the upper air energy interferes with each constructively!)  The progression of the maps will be 24 hours into the future starting with Sunday late afternoon.  I will circle in red the 2 separate disturbances...buckle up...here we go!

SUNDAY:

MONDAY:

TUESDAY:

WEDNESDAY:

THURSDAY:

And finally the surface storm for the coast!  Quite a blow for this time of year!

I just thought I'd share this classic storm formation as seen by the numerical modeling out of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting.  And for those of you looking for summer, here is the Day 10 surge of heat at the 850 mb level.  I believe the 1st week of May will feel quite summer-like in these parts.  I may just have to break out my short sleeve polos from winter storage...finally!

OK...off to see how my recent exercise regiment has affected my specific weight lift targets.  I thank you all for reading this and I hope you all enjoy this time of year that can be so beautiful in terms of the weather...but at the same time, rather confounding...commonly known as PA Spring!

Happy Weekend!

Smitty

AA:  Just looking at upper air charts to see how coastal storm might evolve later next week.  Still coolish here...but the 1st week of May will turn warmer!  I'm concerned about the Os; your BoSox look tough as do the Jays in the east!

Crazy Cold A Comin'

With this first wintry event ending as y'all awaken this morning, a "Manitoba Mauler", which is gearing up to invoke a smack-down on southern and eastern New England, will give us a cursory accumulation of winter fun, but more importantly, pave the way for the hounds of the arctic to come a howlin' to these parts for the next few weeks!  Please humor me and let me describe all of this...1st the "MM" for Sunday evening...please note that some of the snowfall depicted on the map below is the ending of the current snowfall...which is ending as rain and freezing rain here at my humble abode here in the sub-tropics of south central PA!

So come Monday morning, at KMDT, we are looking at a seasonal snowfall total somewhere in the neighborhood of 15" to date...pretty typical for us at this time of the year.  Everyone was pumped for winter back in November with the pre-Thanksgiving snow (rare for KMDT) and the early cold shots that was getting everyone in the spirits for a "White Christmas".  Let me remind you of the temps from November 2014...

As you can plainly see, with the exception of CA and NV, the remaining parts of the CONUS were very much below seasonal norms for the month.  Dreams of a white Christmas were quickly dashed, however, as December dawned a new month of warmth...take a look...

The only wintry events that can come from a warm anomaly as seen above is solid lake effect snows as the lakes remain "warm" relative to the the occasional cold shots coming across them delivering the winter goods for those in the favored lake effect belts.  However, once the ball dropped on Time Square, the weather turned once again for the lower 48.  This January has a chance to be colder than last January and in fact, currently is as a whole for the lower 48 to date!  But everyone remembers the "Polar Vortex" episodes and the numerous snows that occurred as the warmth attacked the strong holding cold to the north...here...look for yourself...this is January 2014 below...quite cold from Nunavut to New Orleans and points east!

And this January to date as seen below...note the "warm" southeast quadrant of the US around FL and the Carolinas...that is what has caused any precip that has tried to come our way from the southwest to ultimately warm the column and turn it to rain in these parts.  But when we get clipper systems from the northwest, although the moisture is limited, it is accompanied by quite a cold air mass and high ratio snows are usually the outcome.  And that once again is likely to occur to end our week's end.

But when we look at the monthly deviations for January in a week or so, they will look much different from the map above as some serious cold is about to be unleashed on the eastern CONUS.  Here are the temperature anomalies for the next 5 days...

Then days 6-11...

And finally days 11-16...

And as we head into February (remember February made Don McLean shiver with every paper he delivered...sorry I digress...), the cold looks to hold if you believe the NCEP climate models...the map below shows the last 3 runs averaged...that is quite a cold signal for the northeast!

The model is likely sniffing out a deep snow pack as this graphic below indicates...this is a 10 day mean of max snow depth for the 10 days into the middle of February...

OK...I've rambled on long enough.  I think y'all get the point.  This weekend will kickoff winter for the next several weeks in these parts.  "Kickoff"...kinda ironic since we don't have any football this weekend, unless the Senior Bowl counts for something, and it does as it is many times entertaining!  So, the cold is a comin' as is Jimi's train; take a listen. It's acoustic (12-string) for all of you raucous electric guitar phobes.  I hope you enjoy.

And enjoy your week's end!

Smitty

AA:  Snow cover will make the cold that's on tap this week even "colder".  Here, I couldn't resist one more map.  Modeled lows for Wednesday...

Buckle Up!

And the title is not referring to the cold front that will blast through our region sometime when "Joy To The World" is being sung at midnight mass tonight!  Just ahead of the passing of the strong cold front, warm air will invade our region on some gusty SSW winds...look at these temp anomalies...

Wind gusts well over 30 mph will be occurring around midnight; first to help scour the low level cold air, then briefly spike temps to near 60°F prior to the temps crashing back to near 40°F by morning.  This is a very well mixed air mass, so Christmas Day should be relatively mild with temps near 50°F for maxes.  And a visit from the sun is guaranteed!  Haven't had many of those sightings over the last 3 weeks!  Here is a close-up map centered on Harrisburg indicating wind gusts well over the 30 knot threshold...so make sure those air filled Santas and Snowmen are tightly secured.  There will be quite the pressure gradient accompanied with this frontal passage, so gusty conditions are also guaranteed!

But the real purpose of this posting is to quickly discuss the potential of winter weather arriving in spades early next week.  There will be several wrinkles in quite a strong jet as arctic air bleeds and presses south and east into the Mid-Atlantic region.  Below is the jet stream map for next Tuesday.  Note the direct discharge of arctic air from...well...the arctic and then the baroclinic zone setting up very close to southern PA! (Location of the jet).  In addition, the upper level divergence with the fast jet streaks should lead to several bouts of snowfall for us in the Monday-Wednesday time frame.  The timing of each little wrinkle is simply to difficult at this time parameter!

The map below shows the moisture available for precipitation...precipitable water along with the sea level pressures.  Note the low pressure over TN-MS-AL and that low, although weak should track across northern VA and then up towards Nova Scotia.  This is the arctic boundary where just to the NW of the purple colors, very cold and dry air will begin to claim.  A nice overrunning event should occur here across PA!  The Euro has been pretty consistent in its solution over the last several runs.

Once this system passes, the model is sensing snow on the ground as some very cold anomalies are being modeled!  Brrrr...you will hear about the polar vortex next week once again I do believe!  Look at the UP of Michigan.  That is from deep fresh snow pack from lake effect with this arctic air invasion.

The 850 mb temps are quite cold and high pressure will rule the roost for several days after the New Year!  But don't get to used to that as many more jet disturbances look poised to wiggle along this arctic boundary and more snowfall is likely into the first part of January.

So that is my Christmas Week Synopsis and I'm sticking with it!  And with the wind this evening, I believe you'll hear to wind chimes, trash cans, rafters, etc...but play this video below so you can hear The Bells On Christmas Day!

Merry Christmas y'all...and as always...THANKS for reading!

Smitty

AA:  Windy this evening to get rid of this rain/wet/mess.  Then a few clearer and drier days prior to some potentially nasty winter-like weather early next week.  Then quite cold around New Years Day...and a bit beyond!  Merry Christmas my friend!