Snow Rates Should Be 1"+ This Evening

In our immediate area, we should see snow rates at 1"+ for a few hours as the storm really cranks just to our ESE.  I've quickly attached 2 maps.  The first shows the surface freezing line (hot pink) and the storm "bombing" off to our east.  This will pull the cold air very rapidly into our region at all levels.

The 2nd map is the 3 hr precip ending at 10 pm this evening.  Most of this will fall as snow according to the short term modeling.  The dark black line is essentially the rain snow line.  So if you're up around midnight this evening, mom nature could be offering quite a show complete with some thunder and lightning!

And if you are up after midnight...enjoy this classic!  Please, feel free to hoot and holler right along with the gang!

Enjoy your Thursday!

Smitty

AA:  Still looking at some briefly heavy snow once the sun goes down.  Changeover by 9 pm I'd say.

Rain Then Snow

Just a very quick post now that the storm is upon us...and it now appears that a moderately heavy rain event will evolve into a moderately heavy snow event.  The sooner the storm strengthens, the more rapidly cooling will be able to occur not only at the surface, but where the snowflakes are produced in the cloud.  To be sure, this is a much greater event in terms of precipitation than most people saw coming as evidenced by the flood watch statements.  If this warm air from the last week were not in place, we'd be looking at a major snow event for early December.  As it is, we are looking at a 3-6" event in our area with the bulk of it falling during the sun down hours.  So if driving, don't be fooled by the statements that the roads are "warm" and snow can't accumulate on them.  When snow is thumping at 1"+/hour, driving will become tricky overnight tonight...so take caution.

I am posting just one image and that is from the ensemble plumes.  I circled in red where the changeover time seems most likely (lines go from green to blue) and placed a mark at the time scale along the bottom axis.  That is somewhere near 22-23Z or 5-6 pm this evening.  It also appears that it is about halfway along those colored lines so lets say half falls as snow and half falls as rain.  If that is the case, then at 10:1 which is what the models are suggesting for the snow, and accounting for some melting due to the recent warmth, we are looking at 3-6" from 6 pm until 3 am or so...slightly higher amounts with elevation along the Blue Mountain up into northern Lebanon County and the high ground of western York and Cumberland Counties. 

Now where can you get that type of analysis for free.....I know, I know.......just about everywhere and anywhere on the internet...but you need to go no farther than Smitty's Synoptic Synopsis!

Go Rams and D3 football!

Have a wonderful Wednesday!

Smitty

AA:  Heavy rain changing to heavy snow around sunset or just after. 

Moderate Snow Wednesday Night into Thursday Morning

The NWS doesn't see fit yet to post a Winter Storm Watch, but I am fairly confident that a moderate to possibly heavy snow event will unfold here in our area starting late Wednesday and last into early Thursday.  This is just a very brief post to show you the latest model output of the NAM and its depiction of how this will all play out.  The maps I am using show the Rain-Snow line as a bold line marked by 0ºC.  Note that on the first map we are very close to that line, but that critical line steadily moves east and all of the precip will be falling as snow.  Here is the map as of 10 pm Wednesday evening...

Then the period ending about 1 am Thursday morning....that is a quick heavy burst of snow in our immediate area!

And then the storm pulls away as shown at 4 am Thursday morning...

So it is now appearing that this quick hitter will dump a plowable snowfall for our area.  Cold air will then be moving in for the weekend...here is the forecast temps for kickoff in Altoona Saturday evening.  That has temps in the low 20s with what you can't see...some wind!  It will be cold!

Gotta go....have a terrific Tuesday!

Smitty

AA:  Watching snow potential for Wednesday night into Thursday morning and cold for football Saturday.

Finding Winter & a District 3 AAAA Football Championship

First off, let me just congratulate the CD Rams football program for achieving quite a milestone last evening at Hershey Park Stadium in Hershey, PA.  Coach McNamee and his sterling and accomplished staff have persevered through the regular season and the D3 playoff bracket to create their meeting with the western champion, specifically North Allegheny, for a chance at state gold.  Although not mistake free, and that is quite frankly a tall order for any level of football, the CD Rams played a solid fundamental game, shut down the rushing attack of the Wilson Bulldogs and came away the D3 AAAA champs last evening in what was yet another classic D3 final.  Good luck to those tenacious Rams as they travel to Altoona next Saturday to take on the Tigers from North Allegheny High School.  We can only hope that Coach Mac becomes more photogenic by next Saturday...I did say hope!

Before we leave the football component of this discussion, next Saturday evening at Mansion Park will be a cold one...NO DOUBT!  It will be the coldest football game played this season by either combatant and possibly be the coldest day of this early winter season to date.  Take a look at the 850 mb temps for next Saturday during the game.  Couple the surface temps in the upper 20s with a rather fresh NW wind and wind chills should be in the teens for the game.  What do you expect when you play outdoors in December in PA?!?

What should make this scene even more like an icebox is that there will likely be some rather fresh piles of snow surrounding the gridiron as a wave of low pressure will be forming on the first of two cold fronts to pass through PA this week and lay down a blanket of white from the mountains of VA and WV through MD and PA and up into southern New England.  This will be our first bona fide snow event for this true winter season...the Halloween storm doesn't count for my wager with my parking lot compadre.  Here is what the GFS sees as snowfall accumulations through Friday this upcoming week.  Personally, I believe the model will correct slightly north and west and the axis of heaviest snow should actually be very close to a Cincinnati to Boston line.  But from this far out, that is a very tough call to make. 

We need to get the upper level vort max feature out onto the plains east of the Rockies and then see how and where the storm will evolve.  As of this morning, this is where the GFS puts the southern vorticity for the forming surface cyclone.  That is a rather fierce looking vort max around the DFW region for Wednesday.

That should create a surface reflection of low pressure to the east northeast of that region by later on Wednesday night and into the day on Thursday.  The GFS has the best lifting at the 700 mb level to the south of PA.  Again, it is waaaaaay to soon to pinpoint where this optimal lift will occur, but I believe it will be further north and west from where the GFS presently has it.  Those "yellow" regions is where snows could fall at rates of 1" per hour or greater for a period of time!

Here is the current depiction of the GFS' idea as to where the surface storm will be located Thursday evening.  Again, I believe this will correct slightly further north and west as the week progresses.

And here is the storm as it pulls away from our area and out into the north Atlantic Ocean.  That will then allow for the Arctic air to move into the Mid-Atlantic and northeast once that storm departs.  See the map above under our photogenic ball coach as to the enormity of the arctic air invading the lower 48 by next weekend!

This arctic air is being created by the snow and ice covered surface of our planet as we approach the winter solstice.  The low angle and no angle sun obviously is ineffective at adding heat to the air, so cold air is readily manufactured in the polar regions at this time of year.  Take a look at the current snow and ice covering the northern hemisphere of planet earth.

And now closer to home in the lower 48.  Note the fresh snowfall from NM up through WI from Saturday's storm through the western plains and into the western lakes.

So there you have it...let the hype begin for our first potential school disrupting snowfall and the Western Finals in AAAA football, state semi-final game featuring the North Allegheny Tigers and the CD Rams...sounds nifty don't cha think?

Have a great week...and remember if you are so inclined to monitor Twitter and follow me @SmittysSynopsis, for quick hitter updates on the upcoming winter wx event.

Smitty

AA:  Great D3 win last evening...and watching winter make a run at us this week in the form of a moderate snowfall targeting the Thursday afternoon time frame.  Then it's off to Altoona to cheer on the CD Rams to support them in their endeavor to gain their place in the state football AAAA finals bracket!

Looking For Winter & a District 3 AAAA Football Championship

Over the last several days, I have been looking as to how we will snap out of our above normal pattern in terms of temperature and slide into winter.  Well, I do believe that winter type temperatures will be here by the middle of this upcoming week, possibly with just a tiny bit of wet snow followed by a siege of some very cold air from O Canada.  The Midwest and the Plains states will get their bout of winter early in the week with 2 storms that cut to our west.  This will allow for a few final days of above normal temps until the bottom drops out for us by next week.  Let me explain all of this with the use of our wonderful computer modeling and simulations.  The pic below is the Earth Science Research Lab (ESRL) in Boulder, Colorado.  Who wouldn't want to report their to work every day?  Earth Sciences and location...wow!

Here are the GFS ensembles showing that we will once again be above normal for the early part of this upcoming week.  KMDT is ~150 Heating Degree Days below normal to this point in the heating season.  Enjoy those savings since cold air is beginning to move.  Note the pool of cold over the desert SW.  That is the area of the storm formations that will ride up to our west and lay down some snowfalls over the plains early this week.

Here is a map of where the GFS believes the accumulations will occur by Wednesday.  Note the 3 areas of where I circled in LIME GREEN the places where storms will lay down the winter carpet.  The broadening swath up through NE, IA, and WI will be the most vigorous and begin to allow the cold air to advect south into the lower 48.  The model sees some very light accumulations in the Appalachians and into the Mid-Atlantic, but that will be more of a few flakes flying, but nonetheless, the temps are getting cold enough to support snowfall.

Once that 3rd wave passes off to our north and east, then the cold air will make in roads to PA by the end of this upcoming week.  Look at the raw anomalies first for our warmest weather this week...maybe the warmest for all of December...and then for the end of this upcoming week.  Here is Tuesday:

And by Thursday, below normal temps are prevalent over the entire country.

Then, by next weekend, the potential exists for the proverbial bottom to drop out!  Look at the -20ºF deviations from normal in the Ohio Valley poised to come at the Mid-Atlantic.  That most certainly can set the stage for some wintry type precip once that cold air gets established and begins to fall under attack from the warmer and more humid air that lurks down in the gulf!  By the way, normals for the middle of December for KMDT are ~41ºF and ~27ºF.  So as you can see, we've been above normal here of late, but most certainly feeling colder in the most recent days.  If the map below would verify, we'd be looking at daytime maxes struggling to reach the freezing mark!  Now that would be one cold smack in the face; reality check I like to call it!

Looking further into December, the picture gets a bit murky with the teleconnections of the AO, NAO, the PNA, the EPO, and the MJO all showing conflicting signs!  But here is the GFS ensembles for 372 hours or ~15 days hence.  This takes us out to one week prior to the visit from the big red dressed jolly old elf from the north country.  Note the cross polar component to the 500 mb heights.  This has the potential to be a very cold outbreak for mid and late month and energy use for the northern part of the country will be on the rise.  Again, natgas prices currently at ~$3.35/million BTU at the Henry Hub should gain ~$0.50/million BTU within a week as more and more weather forecasters see this cold air coming into play, especially for the energy mongers of the northeast US!  Again, disclaimer...any investments you make on my opinions are yours and yours alone!  Energy futures are extremely speculative and involve substantial risk!  The information that I provide or that is derived from this blog should not be a substitute for advice from an investment professional.  Smitty strongly encourages you to obtain personal advice from your professional investment advisor and to make independent analyses before acting on this information that I provide for entertainment purposes.  However, if you feel that you can make a buck or two in the energy markets; have at it!  Only you can determine what level of risk is appropriate for you.  

The map below is relatively new product known as the "Reforecast" project is constructed at the ESRL; Physical Sciences Division (PSD).  It has produced a dataset of historical weather forecasts generated with a the numerical models and has accounted for model errors and biases.  Therefore, the primary advantage with this "reforecast" dataset is that model forecast errors can be diagnosed and corrected, thereby dramatically increasing the forecast skill.  Although in its infancy, this type of reanalysis will greatly enable forecasters to gain further confidence as they peer more distantly into the future.  Look at the cold coming for the central and eastern US in the 8-14 day period!  And as the map shows above, will likely to continue towards Christmas Day!

OK...I've geeked long enough here.  Its just that...really...who needs cable TV with all of these outstanding products offered by NOAA.  I'm scared that Congress will cut funding to this scientific venture similar to what occurred at NASA!  But that will be a different rant for a different day...As for today, go Rams!  Listen, when you're playing high school football in December, you've got a good team!  Be aware your opponent is equally as competitive and we all know we are talking high school athletes; thus, just about any outcome is possible!  All the "Xs" and "Os" can't overcome some of the intangibles associated with the adolescent players.  Compete at a high level for 4 solid quarters of mistake free football and chances are fairly good that you live to play another week!  So tonight at Hershey Park Stadium (and the wx will be a non-factor...at kickoff at 6 pm:  ~39ºF, mostly clear skies, light east wind (towards press box)!), the AAAA District 3 champion will be crowned and here's hoping that the football AAAA trophy will be hoisted by Coach Mac and his troops!

Have a great week's end!

Smitty

AA:  After a mild couple of days, cold air will begin to invade PA.  We may see a few wet snowflakes at the onset of the colder air invasion Wednesday or so, but nothing to get excited about. Then it appears the cold will lock in for a couple of weeks.  Looking forward to the AAAA football D3 championship game at HP Stadium!

Farewell Fall; Welcome Winter

December, January, and February are the 3 coldest months of the year climatologically here in the Mid-Atlantic region and more specifically, Dec 5-Mar 5!  So as we say goodbye to the extremely wet fall thanks to Irene and Lee in August & September, the eerily strange snowfall of Halloween weekend, and the amiable mild November, we now await what December has in store for us, many wondering where true winter wx is?  Well, be careful what you wish for!  Next week I do believe that much below normal temps will embrace the majority of the nation and the potential for an early season snowfall is most certainly on the potential radar.  Both the GFS and the Euro show some rather strong digging troughs entering the lower 48 that will at the very least offer intense lake effect squalls and could generate a larger scale synoptic storm over the northern Mid-Atlantic and New England states for the middle of next week.  Before we get to that, lets look at the climo graph for KMDT through November.  Note the recent warmth the last week of November.  Also note the 70.40" of rainfall to date!  Amazing!

Now onto next week with numerous maps.  I will first show the GFS for next Wednesday 3 hours apart.  What this map shows is a very strong trough that is spinning up a storm that will potentially dump ~0.75 inch of precip falling as snow according to the 0ºC line being to our south and east.

The above map is for Wednesday morning and the map below is for late morning Wednesday:

And the upper air maps to support this cyclogenesis:

The above is the 500 mb vorticity map and the below is the same parameter for again late morning Wednesday.  That is a strengthening negatively titled trough which has the potential to deliver a fierce bout of winter wx!

And later in the day Wednesday...that is one angry looking vort max!  Things may be rather volatile for the middle of next week.

The ECMWF agrees to some extent, but not with the exact timing.  Look at the depth of that cold pool!

With another severe shot of cold waiting in the wings for a second shot of Arctic air arriving later in the week and next weekend.  That is a huge Arctic High at 1040 mb lurking over the Canadian prairies.

Time will tell how all of this transpires.  But the models are telling us that the pattern is changing and cold air is on the move.  Does this lock in and hold the cold for the 1st part of the winter or are these troughs transient?  It's still a bit murky.  Here are the GFS ensembles take on the NAO trending negative by the middle of December.  There is great spread however among the various members of the ensembles as you can clearly see.

One graphic that was straight up today was the Dow!  It was the Dow Jones greatest one day increase since March of 2009!  The Fed wants the American taxpayers to back the IMF to help bail out Europe...unbelievable.  The central banks of numerous countries are all considering throwing good money after bad.  At least the markets rose sharply today in response to all of this lunacy!  One just has to wonder where these flim-flam economics are going to land?  Or crash land!?!

Enjoy the end of the week.

Smitty

AA:  Watching some very cold air with some extremely energetic upper level energy aimed at us towards the middle of next week.

Hounds of Winter Howlin' Next Week

If one is to believe both the GFS and the ECMWF, the hounds of winter will be howlin' next week.  Both numerical solutions depict not just one but 2 deep troughs diving SE from Canada.  Along with the trough will come very cold and dry air that will ignite a vigorous round of lake effect snows in the lee of the lakes both on/about Tuesday and then again about Friday.  Here are the 850 mb temps first from the GFS.  The large region of bright lavender indicates temps at a mile up would be close to ~0-5 above F.  Surface temps would be in the 20s to near 30 if this would verify!

The Euro is in close agreement...take a look.  That's as far out as I can run this model, but 12 hours later would have the core of the cold over PA and points northeast.

Then next Friday comes along and another shot of very cold air comes a callin'.  Here is the GFS for next Friday, or about 10 days from now.  That is an expansive area of cold and places on the Tug Hill plateau of upstate NY will get slammed with lake effect if this verifies.  Most of the US will have below normal temps the middle to end of next week as indicated by the map below.

As for the nearer term and more importantly this Saturday evening for the football District 3 AAAA championship game to be contested at Hershey Park Stadium, the weather appears to be quite "fair", albeit a tad chilly!  That is one large elongated high pressure ridging SW to NE over the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.  The lighter blue suggests surface temps will be in the 30s with the darker blue in central PA closer to the freezing mark.  Winds will be light from the south thanks to the retreating high pressure off to our east.  So wx should not be an issue in deciding the outcome of this game!

$254 million was quietly claimed today by 3 Wall Street moguls who certainly suggest that the "rich keep getting richer"!  At 195,000,000:1 odds against winning the grand prize, I would suggest you continue to dollar cost average into your favorite mutual fund and allow time to compound your savings into a meaningful "prize" that you'll be grateful to have during your "Golden Years".  You actually have better odds of catching lightning in a bottle than hitting the power ball number!  Unlike what these cats do with their clients' moolah, they'll likely take their lump sum of dough and place it in guaranteed securities and depositories!  I doubt if they'll be buying Italian or Greece bonds!

Enjoy your mid-week.

Smitty

AA:  Coldest air will blast over lakes early and then again later next week.  And the "Rich Keep Getting Richer"!