Let The Winter Games Begin

As many of you are still digesting the cornucopia of nutrition from the last few days, the  Thanksgiving holiday has been to me a reminder that winter is about to commence. The onset of deer season with rifles.  The multitude of Christmas lights seemingly born from houses' gutters and landscaping.  The season of Advent and the wreaths and calendars that accompany the time.  It was also to me a reminder that the college football season was winding down with those classic rivalries such as Michigan-Ohio State, Florida-Florida State, Auburn-Alabama, USC-UCLA, Penn State-Rutgers??? really?  I digress; sorry!  But as I tap these keys early this final day November 2019, winter appears poised to make itself known in these parts.  It will be one of those "meh" storms as my former colleague likes to refer to these slop systems that affect us here in the sub-tropics of southern "Pennsyltucky"!  However, points just to our north and east will bear the brunt of an early season thumping of winter.  Disruptive to be sure; significant...yes, but not rise to the apex of crippling.  Allow me to explain...

First, the surface set up as of Saturday morning with a major winter storm driving across the country with wind swept snows and even some potential for severe wx associated with the warm sector of this system.  For us here in the east, the high pressure stretching across O Canada will supply the cold air both aloft and at the surface for our first widespread winter wx event.  Also note the tightly packed isobars departing the Canadian maritimes; a reminder of our gusty winds Thanksgiving morning here in these parts.  Take a look at the morning surface map...

This surface map is powered by the upper air trough and vorticity (spin) about 3 miles up...here's a quick glance at that digging trough energy for those of so inclined to want to view such things. 

Sunday 500 mb height anomaly and vorticity...


Monday's same parameters; note how the trough has "dug" further south and east towards the equator bringing the necessary ingredients for a developing surface storm to create some issues for us in the eastern part of the US...


As for how much snow and slop falls, that is always the tough part of the forecast.  I do believe that Sunday morning travelers around here will need to be advised of tricky travel, especially on the back roads and side streets as there is little if any antecedent salt residue on the pavement.  Best case scenario is for a quick thumping of 1-2" snow before the change to sleet and freezing rain.  By midday, even with the hideously low December sun angle, most road surfaces should just be wet.  However, Monday morning may also be a bit tricky, but less so I do believe.  The initial onslaught will be our most impactful...first the freezing rain model...that's just ugly!

And the snow and sleet...basically it's a "go-slow" and not a "don't-go" kinda set up for us; a different story however for the Poconos, Catskills, and Berkshires...

OK...I'm done.  A big shout out to the CD Football Rams as they will compete for the AAAAAA football title next weekend in Chocolatetown USA.  Well done coaches, players, support staff, etc...you catch the drift; a total team effort from top to bottom!

As for my parting entertainment for y'all, how a bout a secular Christmas ditty that's just a tad entertaining in my opine...

Enjoy this last day of November 2019...with one last graphic; November temps through the 28th.  It has been a cold month...

Enjoy some of the traditional football rivalries today...

Smitty

AA:  Looking at a slop storm for late Saturday night into early Monday morning.  Getting about 1" of total liquid precip with about 1/3-1/2 of it falling as some type of frozen stuff.  Let Advent begin!  Hope the Butkus dog left you some tibbits!

November Statistical Fun and Games

Yesterday on my adventures across the northeastern part of PA, I was made keenly aware as to just how cold it has really been the last couple of weeks.  In what amounted to a bright and sunny and somewhat "gorgeous" mid autumn day, I observed a vast smattering of residual snows from earlier in the week.  Some of the snow was in deeper darker valleys while some sat vibrantly atop of peoples homes and roofs.  Still other evidence was small piles of snow that were clearly plowed and pushed about making the snow that more difficult to fade away.  All in all, it was impressive to see the evidence of the cold without a real snowstorm to deliver the true goods of a widespread snow event.  In addition, many of the smaller ponds that I passed by were frozen over with a rather distinct layer of ice.  Yes, it has been cold.

Which got me thinking early this Saturday morn.  Just how cold?  First, here is a graphic of the 1st half of November in terms of temperature anomaly for 2019 across the continental US (CONUS).

Contrast that with 2016, just 3 years ago!  What a difference...

So what I decided to do was the following.  Go back to 1981 and find the years where there was a cold starting November.  Not just cold, VERY COLD.  You see, over the last 39 years, this current year is FIVE standard deviations from the mean of that period. (Thanks to spreadsheets, that made this exercise a bit less laborious!)  That's quite anomalous.  So I found only 3 other years where the CONUS temps to this point were that far from the average.  The last time November has been this cold to date was 1991...take a look...now that is darn cold!

Next, I used the Earth Science Research Lab plotting tool to map what the subsequent December, January, February, March period resembled in terms of temperatures.  Since 1991 was such a large outlier, I triple weighted it as its SD was 3 times greater than 2019.  Then I also just double weighted it and then simply single weighted that year.  Here are the other years that were similar to this November:  1993, 1995, 2000.  Drumroll...here are the results.

Triple weighted 1991:

Double weighted 1991:

Equal weighted 1991, 93, 95, and 2000:

The signal that emerges is a cold northeast and a warm northwest...So only time will tell, but a cold November does seem to portend a colder than normal winter here in the eastern and especially the northeastern US.

OK...we're off to walk the dogs, check out the latest and greatest fitness equipment at our newly constructed PF, then visit our precious granddaughter.  Once all of the excitement eases, it's off to sling pork and sauerkraut for the annual Sauerkraut Supper.  As a result, our hair will hold the scent of fermented cabbage for at least a day or two to come!  Ha!

Go PSU and let's rebound from that hiccup called Minnesota!

I hope you enjoy this tune about November...

Smitty

AA:  A cold November looks as if it may signal an upcoming colder than normal winter in these parts.  I did the heavy lifting for you but I kinda like number crunching as you know. 

Foreboding Formidable Couple of Coastals

As I sit here this glorious afternoon with an arctic air mass firmly in place over PA, it got me thinking as to how cold it truly is with this January air mass.  My lovely bride and I were outside for most of the midday hours working around our humble abode, and when the sun even was even briefly obscured by the few clouds that were around, the air was certainly arctic in its properties!  And this air mass will be reluctant to modify, but rest assured, it will.  With this continental arctic air abutted juxtaposed with the warm oceans to our east, a booming baroclinic zone will create an avenue for storms to spin up and create a couple of coastal powerhouses!  Now if this were a few weeks later into the season, the "Snowmageddon" term and ones similar would be flying high across the interwebs here in the northeastern region of the US...but it's a tad early for such nonsense. But I do believe that this pattern is prescience for what might be to come this winter.  Please humor me and read on...

First our arctic air mass in place...KMDT reached a low of 22 this morning.  21°F was the record established back in 1911.  No record but clearly cold for this time of year.  The 1911 arctic blast was historical across the USA; a "Blue Norther" that caused many places in the midwest to drop 60°F within just a 12 hour period!  Here were the temps this am...Brrrrr...the gray areas are below 0°F and for this time of year, darn cold!  The dark blue "line" will be the storm track for the upcoming systems...

Now the winds are not an issue since the arctic origin high pressure is sitting right over us this afternoon!  No worries with a big dome of high pressure here in these parts!

But this will lift off to the east allowing for slightly warmer and definitely air with more moisture to move towards the eastern part of the land mass.  With the oceans still quite mild from the summer just past, there is a natural boundary for storms to spin up into rather significant systems that will likely hug the coast and deliver nasty gales to most of the eastern seaboard.  We will see some precip, but the cutoff will be abrupt as the dynamics will be best directly near the coast.  Take a look at the pressure come Sunday am...I see a map like that in January; high to the north with a storm in the south...uh,oh! 

But this system will pull up along the coast far enough east to keep the harshest wx along the coast.  Take a look at the max waves modeled with this puppy! Impressive!

And if one coastal is not good enough; how about that nasty looking cyclone modeled for the middle of next week just a few days later...986 mb...wow!  Personally, I believe it will be a tad further west than shown here...

But Smitty, they aren't really having an impact on us.  And I do believe that for the most part.  But, if this is a persistent pattern that is setting up, buckle up for winter.  Storms and rumors of storms will be the rule with a storm track like this...just sayin'...Personally, I could do without the white stuff as I age.  A freshly fallen snow is stunning and pleasing to the eye but it is potentially problematic and even onerous to folks akin to me.  For those of you who are hoping for a "white Thanksgiving"...here is the modeled snow through that day as per the GFS...this run says not very likely.

OK...I'm out.  I hope many of you reading this got a chance to see Mercury cross the sun on Monday.  A shout out to Mr. Reckner for providing the necessary tools to observe this relatively rare event; next Mercury transit is 2032!  You want to see Venus take this path, that won't occur for another 92 more years!  Oh well...if you missed Mercury the other day, here ya go...keep in mind, Mercury is about the size of our moon...

With the above video, this song came to my mind.  I hope you enjoy as I have in the past many times over...and enjoy this cold November to date; a cold November often means a cold DJFM period in these pasts...just sayin'!  And those of you who know me, I'm cold typing this right now!  Ha!

Smitty

AA:  It's darn cold for this early!  I hope the parking lot is not taking its toll.  The grass is done growing here; still nice and green but the mowing is done to be sure.  BJ dropped a tree here and the brush clean up is now done.  You do get warm twice when you heat with wood!  Looks cold to cool for the next 2 weeks before a brief warming trend Thanksgiving week or there abouts.  Then, I believe the cold will come and stay for the bulk of winter starting mid-December at the latest.  Happy Thanksgiving my friend! 

First Flakes?

As I sit here this overcast but very mild Wednesday afternoon, I'm seeing a gradual switch of the jet stream thanks to the powerful storm that passed through last Sunday and another to sail through the Great Lakes on Thursday.  These 2 systems are dragging enough warm and humid air north to help manipulate the jet in such a way that the mean trough or colder air will now be focused more in the eastern part of the North America.  So if you can, enjoy this anomalous warmth the next 36 hours because November will take no quarter for the mild air trying to escape to help balance this zero sum game we call earth's heat balance.  Please let me help with some graphics...

First, here is the 24 hour temperature change from Thursday morning to Friday morning.  Also understand, that a gusty wind will accompany this, so temps will feel very chilly compared to what we have recently been experiencing!  That "Barney purple" is ~30°F colder than Thursday morning at sunrise!  Hot-lanta...um...not so much!

And I mentioned the winds.  Well, the strong WNW winds that will usher in November from O Canada will be clearly evident and well announced with the passing of a strong cold front.  Many might get awakened Friday early morning to the howling of air through the leaf filled trees that still are plenty in our area.  Two maps; first, the precipitable water (moisture content available for rain/snow in a column of air near the earth's surface) for Thursday afternoon when a solid drenching will be occurring compared to the passing of the front with much colder and easily depicted drier air!

Thursday pm...might even have some thunder in these parts with that amount of atmospheric fuel known as water vapor!

But then very early November just past the witching hour...all the saints will be broadcasting their arrival via atmospheric phenomena and reminding us of who they are...and that proclamation will be heard all of the way down to the gulf coast!

Along with that front, much colder air will be ushered in for at least the first half of November.  Here is the 1st 7 days of the 11th month...remember, I like to view the 1 mile up temps to get a feel of how the atmosphere is pushing.

And the 2nd week of November..."Barney purple" starting to reappear once again!

And although I titled this "First Flakes", I do not believe any accumulating snow will be in these parts the next couple of weeks, but certainly in the high ground of PA and in the favored lake effect regions, I certainly believe you'll see accumulations.  And I also believe that many of us around KMDT will see some flakes around...but that's not so out of the ordinary now is it?

In fact, here is the climate model for November.  That's actually darn chilly; good Thanksgiving cooking weather!

OK...I'm out.  Looking forward to seeing the Nats win the World Series tonight!  Yes, here's hoping the National League East representative can take the cheese!  Just think, they started off something like 19-31 through May 23!  Unreal!  Baseball is a marathon.  As for the song, not sure?  I could do the monster mash for Halloween but that's not me.  How about just some good folksy rock and roll about this time of year although the "harvest moon" will be well hidden the next several days...

Link to Song  There were some website glitches on blogger so simply click on the link for many of my readers' favorite part of the blog!

Enjoy...and enjoy your All Hallow's Eve; an astronomical cross-quarter day marking the halfway point between the autumnal equinox and the winter solstice.  That sun angle is surely getting low!

Smitty

AA:  Strong cold front to push through giving ~1.5 inches of rain, then blustery and much colder Friday.  Winds will slacken, but still chilly this weekend.  November looks to be colder than normal; the 1st half quite chilly compared to the normals...

First Frost?

As I sit here this glorious early autumn afternoon with temps hanging around 90°F and moderate dewpoints, I'm just simply suggesting to my loyal readers that our "first" frost may be in order this upcoming weekend!  By definition according to the NWS, it is not when you "see" white ice crystals on vegetation a few inches off the ground or on a thermodynamically cooled metallic or glass object that radiates heat away in an extremely efficient manner....oh no...it's when the observed temperature drops to 36°F for a period of time at the observation site. Really, it does make sense; but honestly, our topography in these parts on a calm morning allow for some parts to be below freezing while other sites would be 10°F warmer.  With all that said, KMDT smashed our 1927 record today...and oh by the way, I baked in most of it...just letting y'all know!

First the current temps...Octoaster to be sure...!

But by morning, a "northdoor" front will be pressing south...look at that "Finger Lakes" cool pressing towards the SusqQ Valley...that coolness will drain right down to the Chesapeake pushing all of the less dense warm air away like the Wisconsin O line did to the Michigan D line 2 weeks ago...

And come tomorrow morning, the entire region east of the Appalachian chain will be back to "normal" in terms of temps...the image below is a textbook example of what weather people here in the east refer to as a "backdoor" cold front!  My wife always pronounces that back door guests are the best!  That north Atlantic water sure does provide relief on a persistent NE low level flow...that's nearly a 50°F difference over 250 miles of interstate! 

As for the next 10 days or so...here is the GFS for weekend to weekend; ever so slightly below normal.  So Smitty, what is normal?  Good question!  For KMDT at this time of year; maxes mid to upper 60s with lows mid to upper 40s...

And as for precip...well...the graphic below suggests a front will be in our vicinity over the next week with opportunity for showers and the like.  For you grass farmers that read this, there is certainly an opportunity to fertilize, but wait until the front looks like it means business!  Certainly little likelihood for tropical systems according the GFS...

OK...I'm out.  Enough about the wx; now onto baseball!  Let's go TB tonight!  I'd like to see the Nats get by the Dodgers...tough chore!  Twinkies over the Yanks...?  Cards over ATL?  A midwest WS?  Who knows...but I do know that the cool winds are pressing from the north and east the next few days.  Enjoy the autumnal wx and possibly 1st frost...?  As for the song, I made plenty of backdoor references, so that was easy...enjoy!

Smitty

AA:  Last hot day today until next May-June period.  Gut feeling you'll be mowing again and possibly more than you want!  I'd like to see a Cards-Twins WS! 

Endless Summer Slowly Yields to Fall

As I was out and about the last several days, I heard many comment, as did I in my own head, how warm it has been.  And indeed it has been warm for this time of year.  For some folks, (like me), that's quite alright!  Others, (like my lovely bride), love the very cool and crisp mornings of September that ever so reluctantly allow their coolness to give way for an escapable brief period of warmth in the middle of the day.  Either way, September weather is very unique in these parts.  But this September has been one with little rainfall and extreme warmth to this point...

First the warmth; man, Mizzou must have been hellish!

And now the lack of precip in these parts...only coastal Carolina has had significant precip this last month or so thanks to devilish Dorian...for us here in PA; a time to fry and a time to dry!

And now for the next couple of weeks as seen by the Euro...endless summer!  (Personally, I'm ok with that above normal temperature map...just sayin'...)

But we could use some rain, but the Euro says..."No Rain for YOU!"  In fact, this map is suggesting no tropical activity along the east coast during the next 2 weeks either...

And the 500 mb supports this extended summer with a nice "heat ridge" over the east in the means the next couple of weeks...what the graphic below shows is the fact that the model believes that the atmosphere will be warm in the eastern part of the continent and therefore expansion keeps the constant pressure heights higher than normal whereas in the west (Montana), the cold will contract the air and the "heavy" cold air will be closer to the earth!  Isn't meteorology awesome?!?

OK...enough said.  I'll "leave" y'all with this.  A tune done by many; but I kinda like EC's version...enjoy!  And enjoy this endless summer if that is your cup of tea...

Enjoy your meeting free Wednesday...for most of you that I know might glance at this...

Smitty

AA:  Next couple of weeks appear to be much above normal in terms of temps and much below normal in terms of rain.  Time to maintain the mowers prior to the end of season which is delayed but will certainly not be denied!  After all, you gonna watch those eliminated BoSox anymore this season? 

A Brief Discourse Concerning Dorian

I use the word "brief" in the title because I could greatly expound on the topic of Dorian and what I've heard concerning this major and devastating hurricane over the last several days.  However, I will try to be brief so as to not take up too much of my loyal reader's precious time...I know some of you are at "Teacher Detention" as I sit and type this out which was often a true time kill to be sure...

First, I heard so much about Dorian's track and how erratic it was.  Actually, Dorian, and all other hurricanes are simply blobs of atmospheric heat and humidity that move thanks to the weak steering winds in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere that gently nudge them along. (Think of a cork floating and drifting in a relatively calm pool of water.)  If the upper winds are too strong, shearing phenomena often will decimate the storm into a cluster of disorganized thunderstorms.  The fact that Dorian essentially stalled allowed the storm to strengthen as the upper air was quite favorable for ventilation and strengthening.  Look at Hurricane Ginger...

Sorry...actually I was a Mary Ann type myself...but this Hurricane Ginger...a month long storm that became nearly stationary at 2 different points in its track.  It made landfall as so many tropical systems do in NC as a Cat 1 'cane.

But Dorian was the strongest Atlantic Hurricane ever...NOT!  Yes, Dorian was a beast to be sure!  But 910 mb at its lowest pressure is good for 9th best in the Atlantic basin all time.  Hurricane Ivan which was nasty for many humans equaled that low pressure...and speak of an erratic path!  Dorian is like the Bryce Harper of hurricanes; generates a lot of talk, and deservedly so, but is only 9th best!  Bellinger, Acuna, Alfonso, Rendon, Soto, Freeman...you get the picture.  Sorry I digress; darn ADD!

Please do not take this for me down playing Dorian.  This powerful hurricane single handedly beefed up the North Atlantic ACE Index (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) in one fell swoop.  Yes, there were some other insignificant storms during this time period, but study the graph and the near vertical slope of the 2019 line (blue) compared to normal climatology is due to Dorian and little else.  Frankly, the 3 prior storms this year were hardly worth a name IMHO...

And for those of us...ME INCLUDED...with short memories, here was Hurricane Matthew's track just 3 years prior...that storm skirted the coast of FL as a 4 and a 3 and had many in dire consternation of the end game.  Check it out...

So what are you sayin' Smitty?  Well, hurricanes, both strong and weak are nothing new.  We have simply unbelievable technology that is both a boom and a bane for us humans when it comes to not only meteorology, but all aspects of our lives.  Satellite technology is just so incredible now; I remember taking a Remote Sensing course at PSU in 1981 not even knowing what Remote Sensing was and became so enthralled with what primitive satellite imagery could do.  I was like a kid in a candy shop!  Now on virtually every social media and TV outlet, we all see these incredible images of the eye of these meteorological masterpieces!  Galveston 1900 would not even be a "disaster" if it were that humanity had even 10% of this type of technology at best!  For those of you wanting to learn more about the Galveston Hurricane, here is a brief analysis; (get by the fact that it is Fox News!)

OK...I said brief.  And with that, a brief ditty to sign off.  Since I'm in a rock and roll kinda mood, here you go.  Enjoy! (A winter type storm vs a summer type storm; I get it...I know...but I like the tune!)  And enjoy the fall-like weather that will accompany the passage of Dorian as he passes our latitude and becomes absorbed into the westerlies completing his job of trying to equalize the heat and humidity of the tropics with the cool and dryness of the polar latitudes' air masses.  There are other tropical systems currently doing their dirty work, but none to truly threaten the US for the next couple of weeks.  Here you go...

I'm out...

Smitty

AA:  How about that 11-10 Nats comeback last night?  Wow!  Not sure the BoSox have that in them this year.  i know the Os don't!  I would not want to play the Nats in the post season.  A dry spell looks to be in order over the next 10 days; might be a respite in the small engine hum over the next week or two?  

Devilish Dorian

It's been quite some time since I pounded these keys on Blogger, so it took a major hurricane threat and some prompting from some loyal readers for me to come out of my blogger slumber.  It's not like I have that much going on in my life that I couldn't type a few paragraphs about the weather...but the birth of my son's daughter is a pretty darn good excuse I do believe (Penelope Rita)...I call her "Pen-ah-lope"until her personality dictates otherwise...plus there is now a Planet Fitness 2 miles from my place and my dogs have finally settled to a point where they can walk to some meaningful extent on a leash.  Oh yeah...and I'm driving some nice vehicles around the Mid-Atlantic region for kicks and giggles...so I'm keeping busy!  With all of that said, some quick thoughts on this potentially damaging storm for the eastern seaboard of not just Florida, but all of the way north to the Outer Banks of NC.  Please let me share the modeling from the past 24 hours...and I'm sure more changes are on the way...

First the Euro tracks from yesterday...just 12 hours ago...

And now today...

Check out where the centers of low pressure are modeled to be more out to sea as opposed to inland...

And also note how the bulk of the ensemble members keep the storm off the coast!  And I love this graphic showing where the damaging winds will be most likely occurring...this graphic is from now through next Thursday; here's hoping it is accurate as this will keep damage to a minimum along the coastal sections of all of the US...

I'll not bother with the rainfall graphic; suffice to say, the coastal regions will see 2-5" of rain with this track if it were to verify.  Frankly, that's not too different from a typical sea breeze thunderstorm set-up!  But here is the current OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK from the National Hurricane Center...

FWIW...the National Hurricane Center continue to move their forecast track off towards the east for the last few updates...GOOD NEWS!  And gut call as of right now as the ridge to the NE is weakening more than modeled, Andrew will continue to be the only monster of the last several decades!  This is a good graphic of the MAJOR landfalls in FL since 1851...Andrew (1992 near Miami), Labor Day 1935 in the Keys, and last year's Michael up on the panhandle...Gut feeling; no dots will be added to this graphic thanks to Dorian!  Here's hoping any how...

OK...enough for now.  I thank y'all for reading.  You can get great wx info anywhere; for those who have asked, I am humbled to be sure!  And those of you reading this at from a CDSD link, I miss y'all!  Doctor Dolittle (aka B-) was correct last year as I was running around the halls prior to homeroom talking to as many as possible; he kept calling it my farewell tour!  It was all good; Gabe had my HR off to a great start!  Funny stuff!  As for the weather, Helpless.  We have no control.  So I will leave you with this Neil Young classic...and as always, thanks for reading!  And to my CDSD folks, keep fighting the good fight!

Smitty

AA:  Happy Labor Day weekend; especially for you!  I've known a few over the years, but not to the extent of as hard of a worker as you and with the family support you have!  You and your family (and so many other hard working people) are why we celebrate Labor Day!  Relax on Monday, have a beer, and watch the BoSox elimination number approach "0" like the Os have been for a couple of weeks now!

Hideous Heatwave

Just a very quick post to my loyal readers that this is indeed a hideous wave of heat, not just for us, but the entire northeast quadrant of the USA.  Please be careful when you hear of record heat in major cities as I've seen many pundits and talking heads quoting the heat index (real feel temps) vs the actual thermometer reading.  Clearly, the heat indices are 100°F+ in many locations across the northeast; however, the actual temps are having trouble rivaling the triple digit temps that are records in many places for this time of year.  Frankly, it is due to the extreme humidity and the wet ground from all of the recent rains...

First the heat advisories and warning in effect as of this writing...

And the current observations as of 4 pm eastern...

Note how the rain from the cluster of T-storms both in the Carolinas and the WI-MI region cool the air...and tomorrow, the 500 mb ridge is still holding strong in the northeast quadrant...the yellow colors show above normal temps in the upper atmosphere still tomorrow...

...but by Tuesday, check this out!  Relief, O Canadian style!  The blue colors are below normal temps aloft, and the deeper blues are much below normal!  And much below normal for July will feel just fine!

OK...with me saying blues so much, maybe a blues tune.  Well, not so much!  My lovely bride loves Linda Ronstadt and here's a song that's quite apropos...enjoy!

Relief is on the way...

Smitty

AA:  Hot yet Sunday; transition day with numerous storms Monday, temps dropping below norms for middle of next week and becoming normal by week's end.  50 years ago tonight, we landed 2 humans on the moon!  Show your kids the moon tonight (though it rises late at 11 pm) and mention to them that only 12 humans have ever walked on the moon (and 4 are still living today!)