Smitty's attempt to educate and to a much lesser extent, entertain, about all facets of life; but primarily the meteorological and the climatological aspects of the earth sciences.
What a day of weather we experienced on Friday, the day of the winter solstice for 2018! From this point forward on the calendar, the sun will slowly climb in the sky until the June 2019 solstice. The days will slowly lengthen as winter's chill strengthens! (But that is a different story for a different day...). As for our ONE mere degree short of tying a 95 year old record for a max temperature, (63ºF was the high), we experienced warmth, high dew point air, heavy rains, and even a relatively rare December thunderstorm or two! The official climate summary includes all of these plus...fog. After a gusty and drying Saturday, things will calm down for Christmas week until another major cyclone develops over the middle part of the continent. That storm will be a pattern changer to bring the colder temps back towards the eastern half of North America. Onto the graphics...
First, the 1"+ of rain has the streams maxed out...again...most streams in PA running greater than their history for this time of year...
And my local stream...
And Greg...it appears that Penns Creek would be blown out at this time; its rockin' through the Poe Valley! Coburn to Glen Iron would be a fast run!
Yes...it's been quite wet! Take a look...first, month to date...
And now year to date...wow! The graphic below is the percent of precip compared to norms. Some places in southern PA have doubled their normal annual precip! For us in our region, we are looking officially at +25" for the year (KMDT's 30 year mean is ~40" per year and we are quickly approaching 65"!)
Here's what our wettest year (2011) looked like thanks to Irene and Lee and numerous springtime thunderstorms and in spite of a rather dry winter...
This week looks to be rather seasonal and reasonable for late December...high pressure seems to want to take control of most of the continent building from central and western O Canada to the east coast. A tad of unsettled wx in the desert SW and note the Friday storm still spinning in the maritimes. Christmas day. This shows the blocking that exists and could spell issues later in the winter for us. When the cold invades, it will tend to hold for longer periods of time.
The North Atlantic Oscillation is heading negative and that hints at cold and snowier times lie ahead. Note that back in earlier December it too telegraphed the cold that was in place for late November and early to mid December. It wasn't until recently that North America was flooded with Pacific origin air but that is about to change once again...I will only display the NAO graphic, the other ocean teleconnections are aligning for what could end up being a nasty January...just sayin'...
This is what a negative NAO creates in terms of temps across the US. The graphic below is from work done by MAD US Weather by analoging years that experienced a -NAO. Brrrrr...
OK...I've dug into the weeds plenty for y'all. I don't want to lose you, my loyal readers. I do greatly appreciate those of you who read these posts regularly...and to all of you, a very Merry (I do believe Green) Christmas. The Euro keeps the dome over the KMDT area preventing any snow here...oh well.
I will leave y'all with this Christmas song...my favorite rendition especially with Sarah Mc...I hope you enjoy as much as I...
Smitty
AA: What a warm and wild Friday! Now back to typical December weather. January does look to me to be hinting at a return to some nasty winter time weather. Merry Christmas my friend.
Although we've been in a mild pattern of sorts the last several days, there is a real chance of at least an inch of snow Christmas Day late making for what would be deemed a "Hallmark" Christmas night. Prior to that, another deep negatively tilted trough will be wasted here in December as there is simply too much mild air across the continent and thus, we will have an Annie Lennox Friday. Please humor me for a few maps...
First, the snow on Christmas night...
And mild it will be for a bit...at least compared to norms. Here is the Euro ensembles for Christmas week...note the cold building in central O Canada!
As for the Annie Lennox Friday...
And the total by Saturday...I believe we can see 2" if this develops the way I see it with the negatively tilted trough! Heck, I may even be able to open some sheltered windows as temps could exceed 60°F and allow for some tropical warmth to invade our home!
What a waste...a huge negative in the mid-levels with no cold air! Ouch!
OK...I'll update you on the Christmas snow po later, but for now enjoy the Eurythmics accurate description of this Friday and frankly this year!
I'm out...
Smitty
AA: Another 1-2" of rain keeping things maxed out in terms of soil moisture, stream levels, etc...watching for a light snow Christmas night.
...Warm and Wet. I'm very disappointed that I had many people looking forward to a 2nd major snow event prior to Christmas. As soon as I put that word out, both the GFS and Euro went south...and stayed south for the most part! The winter storm that will traverse across the southland this weekend will be a shut down storm for the Carolinas and southern VA...but for us, it will simply pull more modified arctic air into our region until a major winter storm passes to our west next weekend. Here we go...
First the temps and precip (none until next weekend!) A cold of it to be sure...
Then the storm system that will deliver the goods to the southlands...the graphic below looks reasonable to me...
And then the liquid sunshine for us next weekend...a huge cyclone...
...with no cold air means heavy rains...again! The map below is only for a 6 hour period. This could deliver and easy 2" rainfall...AGAIN!
OK...with that, I'm off to bed. I'm sorry if I got anyone too excited with my hinting at a good bet for a winter storm this weekend! Oh well...enjoy!
Just a very quick post to suggest that about a week from now, another snow event will take place in the Mid-Atlantic region that occurred in mid November. An arctic high will supply the cold for wintry precip; mostly snow as one low pressure center runs up the Ohio Valley and then transfers its energy to a coastal low. Then after all of the shouting, a "warm up" will take place for the next week or so leading up towards Christmas. Allow me to show the graphics...
First what everyone wants to see; the modeled snow accumulations and the placement of the coastal low pressure:
The ECMWF (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts or the Euro):
And the GFS (Global Forecast System or the American model):
The Euro is a tad slower with the development than the GFS; however, both would be most impactful next Sunday, one week from today. Here is the arctic high to supply the cold air and the developing area of low pressure in the deep south.
You know, only the good lord knows what the future holds. But if this pattern remains intact for the next several weeks, expect above normal snowfall for this upcoming winter. And I haven't seen anything to argue for a major pattern change anytime soon. The equatorial Pacific Ocean drives much of the jet stream patterns around the globe and the type of its configuration suggests more of the same for the next several weeks to months. It's surely been wet!
OK...off to the gym to start our Sunday. Enjoy this bluesy rendition of our weather pattern from the Beale Street Blues Boy...
I'm out...
Smitty
AA: Upcoming cold week starting Tuesday setting the stage for another "early" winter snow event I do believe coming in about a week from now.
Although not yet passed whilst I'm tickling my keyboard, November 2018 will go down as one of the colder Novembers in these parts with ~2.3°F below the 30 year mean per day. This basically means the entire month felt like it was more like the last week of November for the entire month! And although this weekend the mercury may touch 60°F on Sunday if the sun can make an appearance, it will be back into the freezer again with even the potential for wintry precip once again. This colder than normal November has laid down a nice winter carpet and will only continue to reinforce cold air masses intruding from the land of Nunavut. Please humor me and allow me to explain...
Here is the winter carpet to which I alluded...
Now the temps to date for November...this does not include November 30...the only real warmth being where the fires were ravaging CA as well as the Pac NW and FLA...it was quite cold in the nation's heartland!
And the past daily temp range for here in KMDT for this past month...note the trend to much colder days from the beginning of the month...And very little time spent in the red; much more in the normal green and below normal blue...Thanksgiving and Black Friday were anomalously cold!
Just in case you're wondering about year to date...I'll include it here...we are about spot on for the year; how the heck did that happen?
However, the upcoming period from about next Wednesday to the following Monday do look rather intriguing to me. First the true arctic cold to come visiting once again in a tad stronger fashion this go 'round. The graphic below shows the anomalous chill centered on next weekend. Remember, these are in °C so essentially double the below normal temps at 1 mile up. Bottom line, warm in Alaska will displace the cold to the arctic slide...not to be confused with the electric slide!
And with the cold in place, a couple of winter wx events are certainly in the cards. Although 10 days out, the upper air progs from the Euro has been very consistent and the pattern is such there is likelihood of yet another early winter snowfall event that can be fairly impactful for our region. Here is what the model suggests...please understand this is 10 days hence...but to be sure, this has the potential to be a wintry pattern for the next 2 weeks.
OK...gonna roll to the weekend. But I'll leave y'all with one I'm certain I've played many times before at this point in the calendar. Joni Mitchell penned this tune and I absolutely love Sarah McLachlan's rendition of the ditty. My lovely bride turned me onto Sarah's Christmas album several years ago and it remains one of my favs for the season. I hope you enjoy as much as I...
Smitty
AA: A potentially wintry pattern after a brief warm-up this Sunday. Buckle up for what has the potential to be a snowy winter if this pattern doesn't change!
As we head into Thanksgiving week, our memorable November snow will quickly become a distant memory for most. (Notice, I say most; I narrowly escaped the nightmare on I-83 whereas several of my colleagues and acquaintances were not as fortunate...ugh!) With some bright sunny days and cold nights, a slow meltdown of this snow/ice cover will leave only spotty amounts around by Thanksgiving. However, the theme of this upcoming week will be "cold". In fact, for the foreseeable future (in spite of a robust warm up for the early part deer rifle season), it appears that below normal temps will rule the roost well into December. And if you believe the modeling, a stormy pattern will also bring many more threats of wintry precip to these parts as well. Let me explain...
First, the 2nd greatest November snow storm for KMDT since records have been officially kept since 1888...it was clearly on for the books to be sure!
The map below shows the extent and severity of the cold air...some might even refer to this as the dreaded...cue horror music..."Polar Vortex"! Here are the temp anomalies for the next 5 days at one mile up. Big ridge in the west; a large down stream trough in the east. And also, this is a FIVE DAY average and the scale is in Celsius, so you can essentially take the numbers and double them for ºF. Certainly chilly to be sure...
The height of the chill will actually be centered on Thanksgiving eve and day. Take a look at the max temps for Thanksgiving if you believe the Euro; the GFS is a bit more mild but still well below normal. Highs in the 20s are ~25ºF below seasonal norms for late November! A good day to be baking, cooking, roasting, etc...you get my drift.
A big arctic high pressure system will deliver the cold goods...
Here is the next 7 days temp anomaly for the surface of the earth; not one mile up where I like to look for air mass movement...
And then the 2nd week going forward...keep in mind, this does include a robust warm up after Thanksgiving...
So, it is becoming more and more evident that the remainder of the month will certainly feature below normal temps and adding onto what has been a cold month to date. In fact, if you remove the first 2 days of November for KMDT, we are close to 10ºF below the monthly average to date; that's actually quite a deviation over that period of time! Month to date...
I don't often include these, but I thought I'd share for those who might have an interest. This graphic is the Euro ensembles that indicate the range of high and low temps and the white dot is the mean for that period of time forecasted within that range. The farther out into time, the greater the uncertainty and thus the greater the range. But note that the majority of the white dots are at or below freezing and also keep in mind that 45ºF would basically be our average max for this period ending just before Christmas. That's a darn cold ensemble run...
Lastly the upper air mean for the period coming into December. Now I know that some of you don't care about the maps and the reasoning behind some of these weather thoughts, but this map below is a classic stormy pattern, especially for winter. I guess we really shouldn't be surprised as this stormy pattern has persisted for for the last several months. KMDT is ~23" above normal rainfall and this would keep the fire hose coming...
OK...I've rambled enough. As always, I appreciate y'all reading this and even those who jump straight to the AA and/or the song. Here's one for Thanksgiving...enjoy!
I'm out...
Smitty
AA: A cold several week period looks to be on tap with a brief warm spell just in time for the start of deer rifle season. It could also be a continuation of the storminess we've experienced recently as well...but that's a different story for a different day. Happy Thanksgiving my friend!
As this current week has progressed, I have had many colleagues and acquaintances ask and comment about the possibility of snow next week. And while I do believe Harrisburg will see its first flakes the middle of Veterans Day week, an accumulation is highly unlikely in these parts. However, just to our north and west, a heavy wet snow does appear to be on tap as a cold rain will be on our docket with a few white reminders of the upcoming season. But if you believe the Euro hook, line, and sinker, all of that would change by next weekend! Let me explain briefly...
First, I don't think the District 3 football committee had this weather in mind for their first 2 and possibly 3 weekends of playoff football. Here is the reliable Euro on its kickoff rainfall forecast for Friday night lights. Another dousing of 0.75" looks likely during the games...
And that cold rain will be ushering in even colder but drier air for the weekend. If just after midnight Saturday morning (late Friday night) the mercury drops below 40°F, then I believe Saturday will be our first day this fall where temps remain in the 30s all day! A tad early for that type of chill. A large sprawling area of arctic high pressure will be pushing SE to keep us cold and dry for this weekend! Take a look...
Sunday am will be a cold start in these parts...our coldest to this point if the winds go calm to be sure...take a look...
That big arctic high pressure is bringing with it some deep anomalous chill from O Canada. The map below indicates the 5 day average of the temps above the surface by one mile. That source of chill will be our cold air mass for most of next week...
And just for kicks and giggles...take a look at this solution for next Friday and Friday night...we are two weeks before Thanksgiving; not Christmas!
And note how the Euro sees the snow on the ground for the lows a day or two after...kinda cool! 19°F in the suburbs of DC in mid November I gotta see!
OK...enough said. I'll leave y'all with this apropos tune...Enjoy!
And enjoy this Veterans Day weekend! I'm out...
Smitty
AA: Another rainy Friday evening followed by winter type cold with more cold rain next week and possibly, not likely...yet...and slushy accumulation next Friday-Saturday time frame!
As I sit here this Sunday morning perusing the weather models, maps, and satellite imagery, the wind and rain are pounding down outside announcing the arrival of yet another shot of polar air. That large high pressure sitting out over Mizzou and the deep ocean storm off of the New England coast is creating quite a gradient over our region. Hence the blustery conditions anticipated for Sunday funday. Below is the current surface map...note the snow showers depicted in the lee of the lakes.
In fact, while glancing at some college football yesterday, the snow was flying in Madison. Here is a graphic showing the snows around the northern and western lakes for Saturday. This is the air that will be over us today...
And the forecast temps for Harrisburg over the next 10 days. I placed a red line on the chart indicating the normal max for this 10 day stretch...quite chilly to be sure for the end of October.
This a map of the the rest of October as per the Euro ensembles...pretty chilly to be sure over the eastern part of North America...
You know it has been quite mild this October here in the eastern part of the US less Maine, but the cold has been bold across the plains of O Canada and our northern plains as seen in the month to date map below. Also note the warmth over the Arctic Ocean and Alaska, but the cold over Greenland.
In fact, it's been warm over most of Europe as well this October. The upwelling of cold water in the Black Sea shows up very nicely in the graphic below. A sea of cold in a continent of warmth. The cold water from below sure appears out of place, but the persistent southerly flow has done its dirty work and brought the deeper colder water to the surface...pretty neat...
And the Euro seems to think we are in for quite a cold period. The map below shows the next month's cold air over the next month of time...
But the American Climate Forecast System is at odds with the Euro. Personally, I have more faith in the Euro longer range modeling. Take a look...
OK...gotta get going. Kinda knew this was what we were in for with both the weather and the world series. I will be rooting for the BoSox as much as that pains me. But I will be more so rooting for some exciting baseball for the upcoming fall classic. The games being played in bean town will be chilly, especially once that sun sets!
Enjoy your Sunday and this mellow ditty that mentions the changing of the seasons quite eloquently...
Smitty
AA: Looks to be pretty chilly the upcoming couple of weeks! The grass will slow down in its growing and you'll be able to enjoy some Red Sox baseball in the WS!
