Three Winters

By the title, one might ask what in the world...there are 3?  Sort of; astronomical, meteorological, and solar.  I'm sure others can think of many other types of winters (Jonathan, nuclear, frosty...) but I will stick with these 3 for today.  And I'd like to very much focus on the "solar" winter but will address the other two.  The reason I'm doing this today is since the date is December 1, we are commencing on "meteorological" winter which corresponds to the coldest 3 months of the year when divided into quarters.  Most people are familiar with the "astronomical" winter which begins this year on December 21 at 5:02 am EST.  Let's start with the last...

The diagram above indicates the sun-earth relationship on or about December 21 most years (exact time and date above for 2020).  At that specific point in time, the sun will stop (solstice) moving south from our northern hemisphere perspective and begin its 6 month journey moving north until the next "sun-stop" or solstice which is the 1st day of astronomical summer.  On the December solstice, our noon sun angle is at its lowest (~26.5° altitude above the southern horizon) and our daylight is the shortest.  The coldest days are seldom the shortest days in December since our planet is water laden and with water's ability to hold onto its heat much longer than the dry land, there is a good 3 week lag time for the coldest weather to occur in the NH.  Hence the saying, "as the days lengthen, winter's chill strengthens"!  With all of this said, astronomical winter 2020 will begin December 21 and end officially at 5:37 am March 20 when the sun's 90° vertical angle strikes the earth's equator still moving north until its next solstice.  As a side note...for those of you not fond of winter, it is shorter than summer since the earth is moving faster in its orbit during our NH winter months as we are nearer the sun and therefore have a greater orbital speed than 6 months later in July!  But all of that is slowly changing as well...just like everything does...including earth's climate!  Isn't that kinda cool?  

As for meteorological winter, today (Dec 1) is day 1 of 90 days of meteorological winter; the 3 coldest months climatologically of the year.  Here in Pennsyltucky as my one friend affectionately refers to our stomping grounds, that marks cloudier, damper, cooler/colder, rainier, snowier, sloppier and darker weather conditions than the other 9 months.  Here in the northern fringes of the sub-tropics, we often experience relatively milder winters than the folks living just 100-200 miles north of here.  Due to our proximity to the ocean, our winter precip events are often a slop fest as the warmth of the unfrozen ocean often wins out over the polar and arctic air masses trying to move south and east off of the interior of the continent of North America.  KMDT averages just around 30" of snow annually...but as you are quite aware, one good nor'easter is capable of delivering the majority of that total in one fell swoop!  Below is a graphic of our average annual snow totals for PA.  The lee of the Lakes and the Laurel Highlands certainly have enhanced snows as you can see...just like today!

Solar winter?  It's linked to SAD (seasonal affective disorder).  Today marks our earliest sunset at 4:41 pm EST.  However, our sunrise continues get later until 7:30 am at the end of December.  Yet, the absolute shortest day is Dec 21 where we will experience 09h 18m 03s of daylight.  And if we have clouds, those days near the solstice are quite dark...even in the middle of the day!  With the increasingly lower sun angle in November, days do tend to be dark but not like the 2-3 weeks either side of the solstice.  Currently we are losing about 1 minute per day, but that rate slows as we approach the solstice.  Again, the rate of change is rather confusing due to the curved surface of the earth, the tilt of the earth, and the elliptically shaped orbit of the earth.  For those of you so inclined, The Equation of Time will better describe the whys of this occurrence.  With that said, today is only ~12 minutes longer than the shortest day and our noon sun angle is only 1.5° higher...so we are certainly in the middle of "solar winter".  Suffice to say, December is a month where the decorative lights can certainly shine brightly...even in the middle of many of the days!  The graphic below shows the rise-noon-set time and position of the sun for here in Harrisburg this upcoming winter solstice...

Welcome to winter!  Take your pick.  On the "bright" side, we've completed one month of solar winter...but...we haven't even begun astronomical winter; kinda funny.  I've been told my song sometimes works and sometimes not?  I don't know what's going on!  Darn Russians...ha!  If this works, enjoy it, I know I did.  And thanks for reading...

Smitty

AA:  3 types of winter; Astronomical which is from the winter solstice until the vernal equinox which most people acknowledge as the official winter season.  Meteorological winter which tends to be the 3 coldest months of Dec, Jan, and Feb.  And then there's solar winter when the daylight is least and the sun's angle is lowest.  That runs from Nov-Jan.  Enjoy the winter memories with the youngins!  

Sunday Gusty Sunday

 If you opened my "Winter Outlook" using 1988, 1995, and 2010 as my go to analog years, or were the recipient of duplicate emails, you noticed I had a few glitches my first time back on Blogger in a year.  So this post is just as much practice as it is to show Sunday's weather event and the whys behind the upcoming gusty day.  Before I jump in, I do thank you all for reading these blog postings and the several nice compliments I received back from many of you.  Let's now take a plunge (likely not as invigorating as the one shown below!) into the windy Sunday...

For starters, look at the wind gusts modeled for later this Sunday afternoon!  Note the wind speeds over the Great Lakes and the "Hurricane west wind" (thanks Gordon Lightfoot) over Lake Erie!  Also note many of the wind gusts at this time are aided in places of topographic relief.

These surface wind gusts are being created by a strong pressure gradient and a powerful jet stream across our region.  A very deep mid-latitude cyclone is developing north of the Great Lakes while a large high pressure is sinking deep into the southern plains.  Note how the isobars are bending south across the mid-Atlantic states; that clearly indicates the location of a cold front that will be marching towards the east today!  Take a look...

The storm is forming in response to crashing mid atmospheric heights (cold pool moving SE) and a powerful jet stream moving across the CONUS.  First the anomalous 500 mb heights.  As the atmosphere gets colder, the air becomes more dense and "heavier" and therefore the 500 mb level lowers towards the surface of the earth.  The map below shows how far from "normal" these heights are...

That rather large blob of unappealing green has its sights aimed directly at the mid-Atlantic region.  The tight pressure gradient is is creating a strong jet across the Ohio Valley and through the Appalachians.

With a jet like that above our heads here in PA, expect some precipitation and certainly some gusty winds to be sure.  Currently as I type this, there are NWS Wind Advisories issued for western PA.  I believe wind gusts here will be enhanced as the front passes through later this afternoon as a line of showers with possible thundershowers embedded with the front.  That front is ushering in colder air from O Canada.  Remember, I like to study the 850 mb level for air mass changes as the friction of terra firma is greatly reduced 1 mile up.  You can also clearly see the front up the Ohio Valley into PA.

The coldest 850 mb temps reside over PA later Tuesday into Wednesday...

Look for the wind to play a role in some of the NFL games today.  And though it pains me to say this, at least I have the Steelers to view if I want to see quality football this fall...if you catch my drift!

OK practice is over.  Now to post the appropriate song...one that reminds me of my youth!

Enjoy your Sunday funday!

Smitty

AA:  Quite windy today.  A strong cold front will pass through today with fast moving rain showers and gusty winds...maybe even some thunder?  Winds will remain gusty right through Wednesday with windchills in the upper 30s to low 40s through midweek.

 

Upcoming Winter Thoughts

Well it's been nearly a year since I last visited this Blogger site since I've been giving just brief snippets about the weather over on FB.  But these thoughts that I've been pondering needed the format of blogger since there will be more verbiage (at the risk of losing some of my loyal readers...) and just a few more graphics.  My idea on this upcoming cold season was requested by a few...so please indulge this post if you are so inclined.

As many of you know, I believe the earth's oceans are a major driving force of earth's weather patterns and ultimately earth's climate system.  In addition, I do find it rather myopic of both media types and political pundits to simply spew out causes of global climate changes when the reality is that earth's climate system is extraordinary complex.  There are a myriad of factors for which one has to account in order to even theorize about the "whys" of the weather observations and trends.  I find it so intriguing as to how our talented physical scientists and mathematicians are able to model short term weather patterns with relative accuracy knowing all of the parameters that must be part of their programs' ingest data.  Yet, many state quite often that "the weathermen are always wrong".  I know you've heard that...maybe even you have made a similar statement.  But so many take many of the climate predictions as gospel!  That's something that I have difficulty grasping.  Earth's climate system is extremely complex, but I do feel there are 2 primary drivers; the sun (aka 'ol Sol) and the oceans.  That's why I'm using these 2 factors in the maps I'm sharing.  Let's dig in...(my 2nd Pike Place has me rolling!)

First the sunspots cycle; the 11 year tendency for sunspots to appear and disappear from the photosphere of the sun.  Sunspots are areas of anomalous magnetism observed on the sun's surface.  They appear darker since they are slightly cooler than their surroundings.  Over the years, there has been some correlation to sunspots and the earth's weather.  If you are so inclined, you may want to look into the Maunder Minimum or The Year Without a Summer.  Our current sunspot cycle is in its minimum part of the 11 year cycle.  I do think sunspots play a role in weather patterns but how that plays out is way above my pay grade.  However, I will use low sunspot activity as one of my 3 parameters.  Below is a graph of our most recent sunspot cycles and the aforementioned longer view dating back to the Maunder Minimum and then some...

I also am using the largest ocean on earth and its current state as to help see what the upcoming cold season may bring.  The ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) index is often helpful in identifying how the sensible weather might just play out...especially in the 2 extreme seasons of summer and winter.  It also affects the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) which is a tool that often helps in the monthly weather patterns that are likely to develop.  Although the equatorial Pacific has been rather neutral the last several years, we are now and forecast to remain in a weak La Nina pattern.  La Nina is a cooling of the central Pacific while El Nino is a warming of the ocean.  Below is a graphic of our most recent Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomaly.  NOAA has an 85% likelihood of La Nina remaining into spring 2021.  Note the cooler than normal in the central Pacific.  So I chose this as a factor for our our upcoming winter.  I am also showing a graphic of what a La Nina might indicate for the cold season.

OK...timeout to walk our dogs and throw some kettlebells around!  I'll be back...

Sorry for the digression...The final parameter is one that all of you reading this is one with that you are quite familiar.  And that would be the tropical cyclone activity or as most simply call...hurricanes.  2020 was quite an active year for named storms (the most ever); however, the overall amount of cyclone energy was not as robust as many years in the past.  Today, many storms get named that in the past would have simply been briefly monitored at best and more likely ignored due to their open ocean location and improbable impact to land.  In addition, pre-satellites era, only some wayfaring vessels would have noticed larger than normal waves at best.  But hurricane activity is certainly a result of warm tropical oceans and favorable atmospheric circulations.  And again with 70% of earth's surface being covered with water, I do look to the oceans for some signals for our weather.  This year we did have an abundance of tropical activity and that I believe can be a good indicator of what is to come.?.

So after perusing the data the last couple of days...not nearly enough time to thoroughly analyze all of the nuance that also needs to be included, I noticed 3 years that had similar oceanic and solar characteristics.  The abundance of tropical activity, an oncoming La Nina, and low sunspot activity were my chosen variables.   I only went back to 1980 since that is when the satellite era became prevalent though reanalysis is a skill set that is quite reliable.  The 3 years are 1988, 1995, and 2010.  They are not perfect analogs, but they are good enough for my hobby.  Then I used the Earth Science Research Lab (ESRL) website to see how the period of December, January, February, and March reacted to these factors.  Here are the results below:  1st Temperature...

And now for the precipitation...

The precipitation matches a La Nina nearly perfectly!  Wet Ohio Valley and wet Pacific NW.  Dry desert SW through TX and the SE.  The cold in the northern plains is a solid match as well.  However, the cold east coast does not match a La Nina mild east coast.  Also, with a warmer than normal ocean off of our eastern seaboard and the fact that we've had several months prior with above normal temps, I'd hedge on the side of near normal to slightly below than much below normal temps as the ESRL analog map indicates.  The precip matches pretty well and therefore, although we've had a dry last several months, a wetter pattern appears to be on the horizon.   Time will tell!

Since I'm back to Blogger, I'm gonna leave y'all with a song since I've had many tell me over the years that's really all they go to!  And since this about a winter discussion and forecast, I'll leave you with one of my favorite "folk" songs first performed by Joni Mitchell, but I like O Canada's Sarah McLachlan version a tad more.  Funny stuff!

Enjoy this beautiful Saturday...gotta love nice November weather!  

Smitty

AA:  Upcoming winter thoughts...You won't need to mow very much, landscaping will slow, the plow may need to be greased up for a 6 week period from Christmas to Groundhog Day and then again early March.  

Let The Winter Games Begin

As many of you are still digesting the cornucopia of nutrition from the last few days, the  Thanksgiving holiday has been to me a reminder that winter is about to commence. The onset of deer season with rifles.  The multitude of Christmas lights seemingly born from houses' gutters and landscaping.  The season of Advent and the wreaths and calendars that accompany the time.  It was also to me a reminder that the college football season was winding down with those classic rivalries such as Michigan-Ohio State, Florida-Florida State, Auburn-Alabama, USC-UCLA, Penn State-Rutgers??? really?  I digress; sorry!  But as I tap these keys early this final day November 2019, winter appears poised to make itself known in these parts.  It will be one of those "meh" storms as my former colleague likes to refer to these slop systems that affect us here in the sub-tropics of southern "Pennsyltucky"!  However, points just to our north and east will bear the brunt of an early season thumping of winter.  Disruptive to be sure; significant...yes, but not rise to the apex of crippling.  Allow me to explain...

First, the surface set up as of Saturday morning with a major winter storm driving across the country with wind swept snows and even some potential for severe wx associated with the warm sector of this system.  For us here in the east, the high pressure stretching across O Canada will supply the cold air both aloft and at the surface for our first widespread winter wx event.  Also note the tightly packed isobars departing the Canadian maritimes; a reminder of our gusty winds Thanksgiving morning here in these parts.  Take a look at the morning surface map...

This surface map is powered by the upper air trough and vorticity (spin) about 3 miles up...here's a quick glance at that digging trough energy for those of so inclined to want to view such things. 

Sunday 500 mb height anomaly and vorticity...


Monday's same parameters; note how the trough has "dug" further south and east towards the equator bringing the necessary ingredients for a developing surface storm to create some issues for us in the eastern part of the US...


As for how much snow and slop falls, that is always the tough part of the forecast.  I do believe that Sunday morning travelers around here will need to be advised of tricky travel, especially on the back roads and side streets as there is little if any antecedent salt residue on the pavement.  Best case scenario is for a quick thumping of 1-2" snow before the change to sleet and freezing rain.  By midday, even with the hideously low December sun angle, most road surfaces should just be wet.  However, Monday morning may also be a bit tricky, but less so I do believe.  The initial onslaught will be our most impactful...first the freezing rain model...that's just ugly!

And the snow and sleet...basically it's a "go-slow" and not a "don't-go" kinda set up for us; a different story however for the Poconos, Catskills, and Berkshires...

OK...I'm done.  A big shout out to the CD Football Rams as they will compete for the AAAAAA football title next weekend in Chocolatetown USA.  Well done coaches, players, support staff, etc...you catch the drift; a total team effort from top to bottom!

As for my parting entertainment for y'all, how a bout a secular Christmas ditty that's just a tad entertaining in my opine...

Enjoy this last day of November 2019...with one last graphic; November temps through the 28th.  It has been a cold month...

Enjoy some of the traditional football rivalries today...

Smitty

AA:  Looking at a slop storm for late Saturday night into early Monday morning.  Getting about 1" of total liquid precip with about 1/3-1/2 of it falling as some type of frozen stuff.  Let Advent begin!  Hope the Butkus dog left you some tibbits!

November Statistical Fun and Games

Yesterday on my adventures across the northeastern part of PA, I was made keenly aware as to just how cold it has really been the last couple of weeks.  In what amounted to a bright and sunny and somewhat "gorgeous" mid autumn day, I observed a vast smattering of residual snows from earlier in the week.  Some of the snow was in deeper darker valleys while some sat vibrantly atop of peoples homes and roofs.  Still other evidence was small piles of snow that were clearly plowed and pushed about making the snow that more difficult to fade away.  All in all, it was impressive to see the evidence of the cold without a real snowstorm to deliver the true goods of a widespread snow event.  In addition, many of the smaller ponds that I passed by were frozen over with a rather distinct layer of ice.  Yes, it has been cold.

Which got me thinking early this Saturday morn.  Just how cold?  First, here is a graphic of the 1st half of November in terms of temperature anomaly for 2019 across the continental US (CONUS).

Contrast that with 2016, just 3 years ago!  What a difference...

So what I decided to do was the following.  Go back to 1981 and find the years where there was a cold starting November.  Not just cold, VERY COLD.  You see, over the last 39 years, this current year is FIVE standard deviations from the mean of that period. (Thanks to spreadsheets, that made this exercise a bit less laborious!)  That's quite anomalous.  So I found only 3 other years where the CONUS temps to this point were that far from the average.  The last time November has been this cold to date was 1991...take a look...now that is darn cold!

Next, I used the Earth Science Research Lab plotting tool to map what the subsequent December, January, February, March period resembled in terms of temperatures.  Since 1991 was such a large outlier, I triple weighted it as its SD was 3 times greater than 2019.  Then I also just double weighted it and then simply single weighted that year.  Here are the other years that were similar to this November:  1993, 1995, 2000.  Drumroll...here are the results.

Triple weighted 1991:

Double weighted 1991:

Equal weighted 1991, 93, 95, and 2000:

The signal that emerges is a cold northeast and a warm northwest...So only time will tell, but a cold November does seem to portend a colder than normal winter here in the eastern and especially the northeastern US.

OK...we're off to walk the dogs, check out the latest and greatest fitness equipment at our newly constructed PF, then visit our precious granddaughter.  Once all of the excitement eases, it's off to sling pork and sauerkraut for the annual Sauerkraut Supper.  As a result, our hair will hold the scent of fermented cabbage for at least a day or two to come!  Ha!

Go PSU and let's rebound from that hiccup called Minnesota!

I hope you enjoy this tune about November...

Smitty

AA:  A cold November looks as if it may signal an upcoming colder than normal winter in these parts.  I did the heavy lifting for you but I kinda like number crunching as you know. 

Foreboding Formidable Couple of Coastals

As I sit here this glorious afternoon with an arctic air mass firmly in place over PA, it got me thinking as to how cold it truly is with this January air mass.  My lovely bride and I were outside for most of the midday hours working around our humble abode, and when the sun even was even briefly obscured by the few clouds that were around, the air was certainly arctic in its properties!  And this air mass will be reluctant to modify, but rest assured, it will.  With this continental arctic air abutted juxtaposed with the warm oceans to our east, a booming baroclinic zone will create an avenue for storms to spin up and create a couple of coastal powerhouses!  Now if this were a few weeks later into the season, the "Snowmageddon" term and ones similar would be flying high across the interwebs here in the northeastern region of the US...but it's a tad early for such nonsense. But I do believe that this pattern is prescience for what might be to come this winter.  Please humor me and read on...

First our arctic air mass in place...KMDT reached a low of 22 this morning.  21°F was the record established back in 1911.  No record but clearly cold for this time of year.  The 1911 arctic blast was historical across the USA; a "Blue Norther" that caused many places in the midwest to drop 60°F within just a 12 hour period!  Here were the temps this am...Brrrrr...the gray areas are below 0°F and for this time of year, darn cold!  The dark blue "line" will be the storm track for the upcoming systems...

Now the winds are not an issue since the arctic origin high pressure is sitting right over us this afternoon!  No worries with a big dome of high pressure here in these parts!

But this will lift off to the east allowing for slightly warmer and definitely air with more moisture to move towards the eastern part of the land mass.  With the oceans still quite mild from the summer just past, there is a natural boundary for storms to spin up into rather significant systems that will likely hug the coast and deliver nasty gales to most of the eastern seaboard.  We will see some precip, but the cutoff will be abrupt as the dynamics will be best directly near the coast.  Take a look at the pressure come Sunday am...I see a map like that in January; high to the north with a storm in the south...uh,oh! 

But this system will pull up along the coast far enough east to keep the harshest wx along the coast.  Take a look at the max waves modeled with this puppy! Impressive!

And if one coastal is not good enough; how about that nasty looking cyclone modeled for the middle of next week just a few days later...986 mb...wow!  Personally, I believe it will be a tad further west than shown here...

But Smitty, they aren't really having an impact on us.  And I do believe that for the most part.  But, if this is a persistent pattern that is setting up, buckle up for winter.  Storms and rumors of storms will be the rule with a storm track like this...just sayin'...Personally, I could do without the white stuff as I age.  A freshly fallen snow is stunning and pleasing to the eye but it is potentially problematic and even onerous to folks akin to me.  For those of you who are hoping for a "white Thanksgiving"...here is the modeled snow through that day as per the GFS...this run says not very likely.

OK...I'm out.  I hope many of you reading this got a chance to see Mercury cross the sun on Monday.  A shout out to Mr. Reckner for providing the necessary tools to observe this relatively rare event; next Mercury transit is 2032!  You want to see Venus take this path, that won't occur for another 92 more years!  Oh well...if you missed Mercury the other day, here ya go...keep in mind, Mercury is about the size of our moon...

With the above video, this song came to my mind.  I hope you enjoy as I have in the past many times over...and enjoy this cold November to date; a cold November often means a cold DJFM period in these pasts...just sayin'!  And those of you who know me, I'm cold typing this right now!  Ha!

Smitty

AA:  It's darn cold for this early!  I hope the parking lot is not taking its toll.  The grass is done growing here; still nice and green but the mowing is done to be sure.  BJ dropped a tree here and the brush clean up is now done.  You do get warm twice when you heat with wood!  Looks cold to cool for the next 2 weeks before a brief warming trend Thanksgiving week or there abouts.  Then, I believe the cold will come and stay for the bulk of winter starting mid-December at the latest.  Happy Thanksgiving my friend! 

First Flakes?

As I sit here this overcast but very mild Wednesday afternoon, I'm seeing a gradual switch of the jet stream thanks to the powerful storm that passed through last Sunday and another to sail through the Great Lakes on Thursday.  These 2 systems are dragging enough warm and humid air north to help manipulate the jet in such a way that the mean trough or colder air will now be focused more in the eastern part of the North America.  So if you can, enjoy this anomalous warmth the next 36 hours because November will take no quarter for the mild air trying to escape to help balance this zero sum game we call earth's heat balance.  Please let me help with some graphics...

First, here is the 24 hour temperature change from Thursday morning to Friday morning.  Also understand, that a gusty wind will accompany this, so temps will feel very chilly compared to what we have recently been experiencing!  That "Barney purple" is ~30°F colder than Thursday morning at sunrise!  Hot-lanta...um...not so much!

And I mentioned the winds.  Well, the strong WNW winds that will usher in November from O Canada will be clearly evident and well announced with the passing of a strong cold front.  Many might get awakened Friday early morning to the howling of air through the leaf filled trees that still are plenty in our area.  Two maps; first, the precipitable water (moisture content available for rain/snow in a column of air near the earth's surface) for Thursday afternoon when a solid drenching will be occurring compared to the passing of the front with much colder and easily depicted drier air!

Thursday pm...might even have some thunder in these parts with that amount of atmospheric fuel known as water vapor!

But then very early November just past the witching hour...all the saints will be broadcasting their arrival via atmospheric phenomena and reminding us of who they are...and that proclamation will be heard all of the way down to the gulf coast!

Along with that front, much colder air will be ushered in for at least the first half of November.  Here is the 1st 7 days of the 11th month...remember, I like to view the 1 mile up temps to get a feel of how the atmosphere is pushing.

And the 2nd week of November..."Barney purple" starting to reappear once again!

And although I titled this "First Flakes", I do not believe any accumulating snow will be in these parts the next couple of weeks, but certainly in the high ground of PA and in the favored lake effect regions, I certainly believe you'll see accumulations.  And I also believe that many of us around KMDT will see some flakes around...but that's not so out of the ordinary now is it?

In fact, here is the climate model for November.  That's actually darn chilly; good Thanksgiving cooking weather!

OK...I'm out.  Looking forward to seeing the Nats win the World Series tonight!  Yes, here's hoping the National League East representative can take the cheese!  Just think, they started off something like 19-31 through May 23!  Unreal!  Baseball is a marathon.  As for the song, not sure?  I could do the monster mash for Halloween but that's not me.  How about just some good folksy rock and roll about this time of year although the "harvest moon" will be well hidden the next several days...

Link to Song  There were some website glitches on blogger so simply click on the link for many of my readers' favorite part of the blog!

Enjoy...and enjoy your All Hallow's Eve; an astronomical cross-quarter day marking the halfway point between the autumnal equinox and the winter solstice.  That sun angle is surely getting low!

Smitty

AA:  Strong cold front to push through giving ~1.5 inches of rain, then blustery and much colder Friday.  Winds will slacken, but still chilly this weekend.  November looks to be colder than normal; the 1st half quite chilly compared to the normals...